Back in 2014, USV got subpoenaed by the New York State Department of Financial Services (DFS) over our web3 investing activities. We hired a law firm, answered the subpoena, and that ultimately landed me in public testimony in front of the DFS staff.

In my testimony, I explained to the DFS staff that the difference between the US and China is that the US respects the freedom to innovate:

I was reminded of that moment yesterday when, in our quarterly call with our Limited Partners at USV, we were asked if the regulatory pressure on web3 in the US would result in us cutting back our web3 investing.

To which I responded:

When they want to shut it down, I say double down

The most powerful technologies send waves of fear through the establishment.

When you see that fear in their eyes, invest in the cause of that fear.

The last time I posted was May 23rd, three weeks ago.

There was a time when I wrote every day. When I had not yet posted on any day, I felt like something was missing, like I had not yet had my cup of coffee.

Clearly, I have moved on from that need to write every day.

I don’t think I have ever gone three weeks without posting in the almost twenty years I’ve been writing this blog. The 20th anniversary of AVC will be on September 23rd of this year.

So why did I go three weeks without posting?

First and foremost, I did not feel like writing.

There are reasons for that.

The last week of May was completely nuts with a ton of stuff coming at me, some planned like a move out of our family office, some expected like a family medical situation, and some completely unexpected. That week was nuts.

And then on the evening of May 31st, the Gotham Gal and I got on an overnight flight to Paris and took a long-planned two-week vacation in a city we’ve been going to for decades to rest, relax, reconnect, and enjoy Paris and each other.

I’ve always tended to write on vacation but on this vacation, I read.

I may write about what I read this vacation. Or maybe I won’t. But it was not about business, tech, or anything that I tend to write about here. I wanted to get out of that zone and take on some new territory. And I am glad I did.

I worked a bit on vacation. I always do. The VC business is about supporting people, teams, and companies. You can’t really take a vacation from that.

But you can cut back a lot on that and I did.

I also slept a lot. In Eruope, if you try to stay on NYC time, you can go to bed late at night and get up when it is almost noon. There is something decadent about that. Like going back to high school and college when there wasn’t always something waiting for you when you woke up. I also took a lot of naps.

We also walked a lot, rode bikes around town, and spent time wandering around a city we know well and love to explore.

It was a great break, one I needed, and I am mostly happy to be heading home. I am writing this on the flight back.

I don’t know if I will jump right back into writing once or twice a week but I hope so.

I like writing. It brings things out of me that I did not know I had. I don’t know any other way to get those things out of my brain and out into the open.

So hopefully you will see some new stuff from me next week. What it will be I have no clue. But I have never planned out my writing. I like to let it flow out of me in the moment.

In closing, I’d like to address this tweet from Liad, a longtime AVC reader:

I understand that a daily dose of anything is a great thing. I love my daily flat white (cortado in the summer).

But these are not dark times we are in. And I am not writing less because of a lack of excitement for the times we are in.

The combination of computer science advances in machine learning, decentralized systems (blockchains), and new forms of interacting with compute (chat interfaces, heads up displays, voice, etc) presents the most potent cocktail of innovation I have ever seen. We are also seeing amazing scientific advances in areas like renewable/clean energy, health and wellness (biotech), robotics, and many other areas.

These are bright times. As bright as they come.

I will try to write more often and shine a bright light on these things.

Smartphones have had voice input for over a decade now and yet I don’t know that many people who use voice input regularly.

I would guess that maybe 10 to 20% of smartphone users are using voice input regularly. That’s a guess based on absolutely no data other than observing friends, family, and colleagues.

However, in the last week I have started to use voice input a lot more as a result of a friend encouraging me to do it.

Also in the last week, I’ve suggested to my mom that she start using voice input on her phone and I recommended that the Gotham Gal start using voice input to text and email.

So why now?

I don’t think it is because voice input has gotten appreciably better in the last couple of years. I think it is because typing on a phone is annoying and I want to do it less.

What I have observed in the last week using voice input is that the speech-to-text recognition is almost perfect.

But I have yet to figure out how to format things the way I like with voice. For example, I don’t really know how to create new paragraphs or punctuation. I don’t know how to embed links or attach files or photos.

I like to write in a list format. I don’t know how to do that with voice.

So I have a lot to learn about speaking to my phone instead of typing on it. But I think voice input is going to stick for me because I can feel the habit starting to form.

I’m excited to start engaging with my phone in a completely different way and learning new tricks.

And I expect I’ll probably write more blog posts this way.

I wrote this one entirely by speaking to my phone.

The term “censorship resistant” is used a lot in the decentralized computing/web3/crypto space to talk about a core feature of these systems. I don’t love the term censorship resistant because it is a wonky term.

Software that is encoded in smart contracts (and other ways) on fully decentralized blockchains can’t be shut down or turned off.

So why is this a big deal?

Let’s make up a story:

Imagine that an AI is trained to teach children to read better than humans. But the powers that be decide that teaching children to read is something that humans need to do. So they make this AI illegal and block access to it.

Well if this AI is written in a smart contract on a fully decentralized blockchain, it can’t be shut down. As long as there are nodes somewhere around the world willing to maintain the blockchain, this AI will continue to run and anyone that has access to the Internet will be able to use it.

That’s a made-up story, but hopefully, you get the point. I picked AIs and education, but you could also go with self custody and your money. Or you could go with image detection and speeding cameras.

The point is that the powers that be have, from time to time, decided that certain things are bad and attempted to shut them down. Alcohol, for example. Or sex between two people who love each other, for example. Or books about racism, for example.

Fully decentralized blockchains offer something powerful. Software that can’t be turned off. Data that is open to everyone. AIs that can’t be shut down.

We are in a moment with enormous posibilities brought on by the computer science revolutions in machine learning, decentralized systems, and new user interfaces. It will be tempting for powerful entrenched interests to seek to put the genie back in the bottle on some of this stuff. But if the genie is deployed on a fully decentralized blockchain, there is no going back in the bottle.

EV sales in the US are on the rise, reaching 7% of all car sales in Q1 2023, up from 4.6% a year earlier. If that rate of growth continues, EVs will be 10% of the US car market by next year.

Most people who own an EV charge it at home, using an EV charger. Our family owns a few different models. Here are two of them.

The reason we have two chargers right next to each other is one charges our Tesla and the other charges our other EVs. It is like an iPhone and an Android. Each has its own charging cable. I expect that is going to get sorted out soon as the EV market will work a lot better with a standard charging cable.

But what is even more interesting to me is the idea of bi-directional EV charging.

Right now, EV charging is “one way”. Those chargers take power from our home (either from our solar panels or the grid) and send it to our EVs.

But it does not have to work that way. There are bi-directional chargers that can take the power from our EVs and send it to our home.

That would be very useful in the event of a power outage. But it could also be useful to supplement our solar panels at night. Imagine our solar panels filling up our EV batteries during the day when it is sunny out and our EVs powering our home at night when it is not.

This is a nice primer on the topic of bi-directional EV charging. I like this diagram from that primer.

That is the simplest version of bi-directional EV charging. That primer has a bunch more diagrams of more sophisticated versions.

As we transition from a centralized electrical grid to a decentralized electrical grid over the next few decades, storage on the edge (homes, etc) will become critical to making the transition work. And EVs are a huge source of storage that are mostly not connected to the grid right now.

That is going to change and there are lots of opportunities to build innovative services around bi-directional charging as a result.

The Gotham Gal and I make environmentally designed apartment buildings and the one we are making right now has eight parking spots in the basement. We will outfit those parking spots with bi-directional chargers so that the cars in the garage will be connected to the apartments and they can power them in the event of a power outage. We expect to be able to offer additional services to our tenants over time using this technology.

The forty years that I have worked in information technology have seen a remarkable decentralization of computing from mainframes to computers in our pockets. And that has unleashed an enormous wave of innovation. I expect we will see the same thing in the energy grid/market over the next forty years. I am really excited to witness that.

Like tens of millions of others, I downloaded Threads onto my phone yesterday and signed up.

The thing that Twitter has been missing since it killed off its ecosystem over a decade ago is competition. And as we all know, lack of competition is a very bad thing. In governments and in products.

Competition keeps you honest. Competition makes you hustle. Competition forces you to innovate. Competition makes you better.

So I am thrilled to see some real competition emerge for Twitter.

I am also excited to see a scaled social media platform embrace an open protocol. In the case of Threads, that protocol is Activity Pub.

As far as I can tell, Threads does not yet support ActivityPub but has committed to doing so.

I have not enjoyed using any social media apps built on the ActivityPub protocol, most notably Mastodon, but I am not sure if that is the fault of the protocol or Mastodon’s implementation. Hopefully, we will see a better implementation with Threads.

But more importantly, protocols that are widely used bring lots of developers to them and those developers bring lots of different ideas and products.

So to me, Threads is about two really important things:

1/ Competition for Twitter. Long overdue and badly needed.

2/ The emergence of a widely supported social media protocol. Which should produce a vibrant and interoperable social media ecosystem.

I’ve got some questions in my mind about how all of this will work.

What will identity look like in this “vibrant and interoperable social media ecosystem?” It can’t be and hopefully won’t be my Instagram handle. Ideally, it would look something like ENS where each and every one of us will own and control our own identity/handle, like we can own and control a domain name.

Will there be one protocol for all of social media (short form text, long form text, audio, video, etc)? Will Instagram support ActivityPub too, for example?

What role will web3 play in all of this or will web3 social emerge on a different dimension entirely?

The ability to even ask those questions and ponder the answers is a gift to me and to the world. And so, therefore, is Threads.

I spent a good part of my childhood at West Point, the US Military Academy. I got an email yesterday with photos of the flooding at West Point.

My dad and brother used to work in that grey stone building called Mahan Hall.

And the same storms that did this to West Point did worse to many parts of New England, particularly Vermont.

USV’s climate thesis is to invest in companies and projects that provide mitigation for or adaptation to the climate crisis. Adaptation means accepting that we’ve made the climate worse and adapting to it.

Flooding is a great example of that. As the earth warms, storms are capable of carrying a lot more water and dumping it quickly. West Point took ten inches of rain in a few hours.

USV has made investments in two companies working on flood adaptation; Floodmapp and an unannounced investment in a company helping communities become flood resilient. Flooding will be more common and we are going to need better tools to mitigate and manage it.

Along those lines, NYC’s Partnership Fund recently announced a new accelerator program focused on water. Their partner on this accelerator is the NYC Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) which manages NYC’s water and wastewater treatment operations.

This accelerator is called the Environmental Tech Lab and they are looking for early and growth-stage companies that have products that could be used by the NYC Department of Environmental Protection.

If you are building such a company and want to apply, you can do that here.

Flood and water management will be critical in adapting to the climate crisis and, unfortunately, is going to be a big business.

The venture capital sector has been in a sustained downturn for almost eighteen months. How does this downturn end? Well, it may have already ended, but let’s see about that. We will know for sure in a few quarters.

The NASDAQ peaked at roughly 16,000 in November 2021. By June 2022, it was down 33%. It stayed down for all of 2022 and ended the year at roughly 10,500.

But this year the NASDAQ is up almost 40%.

What is driving this? If I had to pick one thing, I would say inflation and interest rates. Yeah, those are two things but they are tied together in times like this. As I laid out in the prior versions of How This Ends (here and here), I believe post-pandemic inflation forced the Fed to raise rates aggressively, blowing a huge hole in the asset bubble that built up during the pandemic.

Last week we got some great news. Inflation is way down in the US. That means rates may have peaked and will stabilize or possibly come down. I don’t know if the Fed makes any more moves or not. But I am not sure that really matters. What matters most to markets is expectations and I think inflation and interest rate expectations have settled down.

Private capital markets, like venture capital, lag public markets by a few quarters. That is because it takes time for private market investors to react to the public markets. The NASDAQ peaked in Nov 2021, but VC markets did not really start slowing down until the second quarter of 2022.

Now that the NASDAQ has posted a couple of strong quarters, I would expect venture capital to respond. But it won’t happen overnight. We are in the summer doldrums. It takes time for VCs to raise new funds. And deals take months to come together.

So my guess is we are mostly through this downturn. We will know for sure in a couple of quarters.

The New York Times had a piece yesterday suggesting that tech will no longer be a growth engine for NYC and the surrounding metro area as it has been for the last twenty years. I am not going to link to the piece because it is behind a paywall but if you want to read it, you can google “Tech Firms Once Powered New York’s Economy. Now They’re Scaling Back.” I talked to one of the reporters who worked on the piece and told him that their angle was incorrect. But when a publication has their mind made up on the angle, there isn’t much you can do to convince them otherwise.

If you take a real estate angle, which is how the New York Times approached the story, it is true that technology companies, large and small, are cutting back on their space needs. But that is more a reflection of the era of remote/hybrid workforces than anything else.

Here is what I told the reporter working on the story:

1/ Office leases to tech companies are down. The tech sector has embraced remote and hybrid workforces and their office space needs reflect that.

2/ Rank and file tech workers in NYC are roughly flat as many workers have left the NYC metro area but just as many have come here from other locations.

3/ Top talent in tech has massively increased in NYC since the pandemic as people with in-demand skills can now work anywhere and don’t have to be in the Bay Area anymore. There are significantly more USV portfolio company leaders in NYC today than there were before the pandemic.

I saw a headline the other day that said that more than half of the top 50 AI companies are in the Bay Area and another 10% are in NYC and nowhere else has a significant number of them. So in many ways, not much has changed with respect to the centers of gravity of the technology sectors.

Technology is the growth sector of this century and new sectors like AI, renewable energy, web3, etc will power the economies of many regions around the world. NYC will be a significant beneficiary of this, as it has been for the last twenty years.

The idea that the tech sector will not be a growth engine for NYC anymore is laughable. But that won’t stop people from suggesting otherwise.

I’ve written about this topic a bunch over the years. It is something I’ve been interested in for quite a while.

Our homes are filled with big hunks of plastic hanging on the wall that are off most of the time. They look like this:

Now that’s a lovely scene. Some nice plants. A cool wood cabinet. A nice lamp. A few books. And a piece of black plastic.

Here’s what our family room looks like when we are not watching the TV:

That’s a Sony TV with nothing special in it. I have done some work to make the art run on it, but that work is getting easier and easier. I’ve been playing around with this stuff for almost a decade and I feel like we are about to get to a place where everyone can do this.

Here’s what is involved.

1/ It is now simple to collect digital art that you can show on your TV. Here is the NFT that is showing on that photo. I minted it five days ago for about $90. It is part of a series of NFTs, but mine is unique. There is not another one that looks exactly like this one. There are hundreds of places you can mint NFTs these days and new NFT mints are offered every day, possibly every hour.

2/ It is relatively easy to write software to show NFTs on a TV. My partner Nick did that for the TVs at USV last year. We run that software on an inexpensive device called a Yodeck. I am currently using software written by the Bright Moments DAO for their NFT events and that runs on a Mac Mini.

3/ I expect a number of companies and projects will write consumer-grade software to do this over the next few years and I also expect the big consumer electronics companies to start shipping smart TVs with this kind of software in them.

Here is how I see this market working.

1/ You buy a smart TV with an NFT app in it.

2/ You connect it to the address that holds your NFTs. For me that is fredwilson.eth. You can see my collection here.

3/ You create playlists like you create playlists on your favorite music app.

4/ You tell the TV to play those playlists when the TV is off.

All of the pieces are in place for this to happen. We just need the software to be written and the consumer electronics companies to adopt it. That feels inevitable to me.

USV has been an investor in the Helium network since 2019. I have always loved the idea of using web3 technologies to let consumers to “peer produce” a communications network creating a people-powered network.

Helium started out powering communications between low-power “Internet of Things (IOT)” devices but with the introduction of Helium Mobile back in May, they are now powering a cell phone network.

My friend Stephen started using Helium Mobile last month and so I decided to join him. I signed up for Helium Mobile yesterday ($25/month but free during the beta period) and added it as a second SIM on my phone.

Now on the upper right of my home screen, I have two cell networks instead of one:

For now, I am going to use Helium Mobile alongside my primary carrier, T-Mobile, but I do plan to eventually scrap T-Mobile and use Helium Mobile exclusively.

Helium Mobile offers members the opportunity to earn Mobile tokens by sharing your location with the network. They call this “mapping”. I turned that on yesterday and should start seeing Mobile tokens in my Helium Mobile app today.

If you want to join me as a Helium Mobile customer, you can do that here.

I got a new Pixel 7 last week and have started the tedious process of moving over to a new phone.

One of the more painful chores in moving from one phone to another is moving the Google Authenticator app and all of the two factor codes to the new phone.

My partner Nick told me about Yubikey Authenticator and I converted to it while moving phones since I was going to have to get all new codes anyway.

If you use a Yubikey for anything else, switching to Yubikey Authenticator is a breeze.

You download the Yubikey Authenticator app onto your phone, insert your Yubikey and start scanning QR codes (just like Google Authenticator).

Then any time you need a code, you simply insert your Yubikey into your phone and your codes appear in the app.

You can also put the Yubikey Authenticator app on a laptop or a desktop and get the codes that way which is a great backup solution in case you misplace or lose your phone.

And, when it is time to switch phones, you simply put the Yubikey Authenticator app on your new phone and insert the Yubikey and your codes are there.

Even with all of this goodness, I still keep physical copies of my backup codes in a safe. I am also considering setting up a second Yubikey for the two factor codes I use the most just in case I lose my main one.

When it comes to two factor codes, I think you have to have a plan B and a plan C.

If you use a Yubikey already, consider using the Yubikey Authenticator for your two factor codes.

For many years, there were three ways to subscribe to AVC:

1/ Email – Get new posts delivered to your inbox

2/ RSS – Get new posts delivered to your RSS reader

3/ X – Follow AVC on X

X revoked the API access that I was using to autopost three or four months ago. I have not been active on that service for almost a year now and have no interest in dealing with it.

So if you are one of the 25.5k followers on X and want to keep getting alerted when I post, I suggest you go with option 1 or option 2 going forward. There is also a new third option that I will talk about at the end of this post.

If you subscribe to AVC via RSS, you are likely using the old Feedburner feed. That has become unreliable and I would suggest moving to the Feedblitz feed which also powers the AVC email delivery.

I finally moved the email delivery off the old Feedburner feed this week when last week’s post did not go out via email. I suspect most of you missed it as a result.

All of this is a perfect example of the fragility of relying on centralized services like X and Feedburner (owned by Google). USV was an early investor in both services and I was a big user of them.

But all things come to an end in the world of centralized services and the challenges of getting AVC delivered to the ~100,000 subscribers reminded me of that last week.

There is a world where services just keep running because they are open source and decentralized. I wrote about that back in June and I am excited about that world to emerge.

AVC is available in the decentralized world and you can subscribe there if you’d like.

So now there are three ways to subscribe to AVC:

1/ Email – Get new posts delivered to your inbox

2/ RSS – Get new posts delivered to your RSS reader

3/ Web3 – Subscribe to AVC on Mirror

If you are using the email delivery method, you are all good. If you are using the old RSS feed or X, I would suggest moving to something else. Or you could just stop getting AVC if that suits you. Many of you already have thanks to X and Google (and me).

I’ve written about this topic before. It is an important topic and I want to raise it again.

Boards often discuss CEO performance without really knowing how things work inside the company. And CEOs often have very little visibility to how they are doing and what the board thinks about their performance. When you work for one person, your boss, it is typical that you will have regular catchups and at least an annual review of your performance (ideally more frequent). But when you work for a group, i.e. a Board, things can get very “squishy” leaving for a lot of guesswork and worse.

Enter the CEO 360.

This is a process whereby the CEO is reviewed by their direct reports and by the Board members and often a few more people (a few skip levels, some investors who aren’t on the board, etc). It is frequently done annually but it could be done more often if the CEO would like that.

This process can be run by the CEO’s coach, an outside facilitator, or someone else. Our portfolio company Bolster offers an excellent CEO 360 at a very reasonable price.

I am often amazed by what I learn from a CEO 360. I frequently see CEOs who are excellent at managing down and run a very solid leadership team but struggle with managing their Board. These CEOs are often seen as weak when in fact they are strong. The opposite is also true. I have seen CEOs who are excellent at managing up but terrible at leading their team and their Boards love them but their team hates them.

What is even more important for everyone is the insights that come from a CEO 360. Like all 360s, they tell the CEO where they are strong and what they need to work on. Armed with that information and a supportive Board and others (coach, mentor, CEO support group, etc), CEOs can take action to get better at their job. Without this information, it is hard to “level up.”

If you are a CEO and don’t do a CEO 360 annually, you should start doing one. And make it a regular occurrence. It will help you do your job better and it will help everyone around you too.

On Saturday, September 9th, the Gotham Gal and I arrived at JFK airport after an eight-hour flight from Paris. While waiting for our luggage, I got pushed a notification in my web3 wallet that there was an NFT drop underway that I could participate in. So I clicked on the link, signed the transaction, and nothing happened (or so I thought). So I tried again. Again nothing happened. Frustrated, I turned my attention to the luggage, retrieved it, got in a car, and headed home. On the way home, I tried again a few times to no avail.

It turns out that each of my failed attempts to mint an NFT was a scam that allowed a thief to eventually take 46 of my most valuable NFTs out of my wallet. I did not realize any of this until I woke the next morning to a text from a friend saying:

did your wallet get compromised? your NFTs from fredwilson.eth were transferred out and sold

That’s when I realized that all of the failed minting activities from the night before were actually me getting scammed.

For much of August, I along with a lot of NFT enthusiasts had been participating in something called “Onchain Summer” which was a rollout of the new Base layer two blockchain from Coinbase. Part of Onchain Summer was a daily NFT drop. You simply clicked on the link in the message in your web3 inbox and went and minted. It was fun and I collected some great NFTs that way.

The message I was scammed with looked exactly like those Onchain Summer messages but was not from the same sender. I should have noticed that but did not. Mistake number one.

The fact that I signed a transaction and nothing happened should have been a sign that something was wrong. Normally when you sign a minting transaction, a new NFT shows up in your wallet. When it did not, I should have sensed something was wrong. I did not. Mistake number two.

The fact that I was signing transactions in the same wallet where I keep my NFTs is also bad practice and I knew it. The best practice is to hold NFTs in a “vault” wallet where you never sign transactions and to have a separate “mint” wallet where you hold nothing but do all of your signing. Mistake number three.

What I was doing by signing those scam transactions was giving the thief access to a number of smart contracts that secured multiple NFTs that I owned. So even though I did not sign 46 scam transactions, the thief was able to take 46 NFTs.

Signing transactions is risky business and needs to be done carefully. I knew that but did not take the required care on the evening of September 9th.

This story has a happy ending. With the help of my USV colleague Nikhil, I have recovered 38 of the 46 NFTs that the thief took from me for a fairly modest sum. As I put it to a friend, it cost me between weeks and months of my personal ETH staking rewards. It was enough to sting and that’s good. It was a lesson that I learned the hard way and it was worth every ETH that it cost me to get them back.

There are a few NFTs that I am not going to try and get back, but I am still trying to buy back these two NFTs that the thief sold to others who are likely unaware that they are holding stolen goods:

Anticyclone #212 currently held by this wallet

WoW #8105 currently held by this wallet

If you recognize those wallets and know who holds those NFTs, I would appreciate an introduction so I can offer to buy them back at their cost.

I do want to thank everyone who sold me back my NFTs (including the thief who we bought quite a few from). Many people sold them back to me at their cost when they heard they were taken from me. I really appreciate that.

NYC Tech Week is next week. It will be a week filled with events for the tech sector to engage and connect with each other.

A particularly great part of tech week is VC Open Office Hours.

There are over 100 VC investors signed up to participate next week.

Here is how it works:

1/ you select four investors (out of more than 100) that you want to meet

2/ you get up to four twenty minute meetings

3/ you discuss your idea with the investor in hopes of getting them interested enough to take another meeting

4/ nobody should expect to walk out with a commitment to invest

As of this moment (Thursday morning Oct 12th) about half of the available slots are still open. But if you want to participate, you probably should act fast as I think this will sell out by the end of today, certainly by the end of tomorrow.

Go here to participate.

I got an Oura ring a couple of years ago and have been working on improving my sleep and sleep habits ever since.

For much of my adult life, I have been a poor sleeper. I have always been able to fall asleep quickly, but I have been plagued by two sleep issues. The first is waking up in the middle of the night and not being able to get back to sleep. The second is waking up early, like 4:30/5am, and being wide awake.

So I’ve been working on those two things.

I still wake up in the middle of the night. My Oura ring tells me that I was up from around 4am to 4:30am last night. What I’ve learned about waking up in the middle of the night is that accepting it and not fighting it is the key to falling back to sleep. When I wake up in the middle of the night, I always wake up with something on my mind. It could be work, it could be something personal, it could be something else. I often work out stuff I’m struggling with in the middle of the night. But now I let it happen and not fuss about getting back to sleep. And I fall back to sleep most nights within thirty minutes.

The sleeping later thing has been harder to crack for me. I wake up with a lot of energy and I want to get out of bed and take on the world. For over twenty years, I have been blogging first thing in the morning when I wake up. I am doing that now. That is because I wake up with things on my mind and I want to work them out and for me, that means writing.

But for the last year, I have been forcing myself to lie in bed instead of jumping out of bed. I started sleeping until 5:30ish last year, I started sleeping until 6ish this year, and recently I have been sleeping until 7ish.

My sleep time has gone from 4-5 hours a night to almost 8 on a good night. I got 7:45 of sleep time last night, for example. I don’t always get that much sleep, but I get it a lot more frequently.

Longer and better sleep has a lot of health benefits. And at age 62, I need all of the health benefits I can get. I want to age gracefully and be mentally and physically fit for as long as possible. Better sleep is part of my plan to be able to do this.

Better sleep comes with some tradeoffs. I don’t have the two hours in the morning when everyone else is still asleep to read, write, and clean out my inbox. So I am writing less and my inbox is a disaster. But it seems like the right tradeoff to make. I moved my workouts to the early evening a few days a week so I no longer workout every morning. That gives me back some time in the mornings that I’ve given to staying in bed longer.

I understand that not everyone can make these tradeoffs. When we had a young family, we got up when our kids got up and we went to bed every night exhausted. A lot of my sleep issues started when our kids were very young. My work schedule is very adaptable and I can do things like move my workouts to the early evenings without missing a beat at work. I am lucky that I have all of this flexibility and I am using it to stay healthy and fit.

My experience over the last two years tells me that sleep habits can change and those of us who are poor sleepers can become good sleepers. I started with a device (in my case an Oura ring) that let me measure my sleep. I find that measuring helps to manage. But ultimately it is behavior change that helps the most.

For me, that meant working out more, eating better, drinking less, and fretting less.

I do not consider myself done with this journey to improve my sleep. I think I will be working on this my entire life. But I have made a lot of progress, I am sleeping better, and for those of you who struggle with sleep, I can assure you that you can improve your sleep too.

Every year I put together a playlist at the end of the year with some of the new music I found and got into.

Most of these songs are under the radar which is my favorite kind of music.

So I hope you find something new that you like in here.

I like to bookend the New Year holiday with two posts, one looking back at the year that is ending (What Happened) and one looking forward to the year ahead (What Will Happen). This is the first of these two posts. The second one will run tomorrow.

I ended my What Will Happen In 2023 with this advice:

Buckle up, hang tough, and be smart.

What I did not predict in that post, although we had been discussing the possibility internally at USV for several months at the time I wrote it, was the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and several other banks that focused on the startup and web3 sectors.

I feel like that moment, which hit us in March, marked the bottom of the downturn, although it has taken at least the rest of the year to work through the carnage and there is still a bit more to come.

That look-forward post also missed the biggest new thing in tech, Chat GPT, which had initially launched about a month before I wrote it. That was a big miss as 2023 will most certainly be remembered as the year that AI went mainstream with consumers, thanks to Chat GPT and other consumer interfaces to large AI models.

To some extent, these two things are related. The end of the 2022/2023 tech/startup downturn happened when two things came together. The first is the end of a period of rising interest rates that had sent the stock market and broader capital markets reeling. The second is the emergence of a new tech megatrend, AI, which has been developing in front of our very eyes for as long as I have been in tech, so that is over forty years now.

But before something can become mainstream, it takes a consumer interface that allows everyone to see the power of the technology firsthand. That thing was Chat GPT and it will rightly take its place along with the iPhone, Netscape, the Macintosh, and other consumer products that brought a new technology into the mainstream and provided for a wave of technology innovation that followed.

Of course, a lot of other things happened in tech, startups, and web3 in 2023, but these two things are the ones that matter the most. Markets have settled down and are poised to move higher and we’ve got a new megatrend that will drive innovation, investing, and the economy.

So while it was a very difficult year, I also think 2023 was an incredibly important year and sets us up for an exciting new period in tech. More on that tomorrow.

As we enter 2024, the capital markets have found their footing and are moving higher. The Fed has taken interest rates as far as they want at this time and inflation has come down. It seems that a “soft landing” is likely. That is good news for the innovation economy because healthy capital markets are a necessary support system.

However, optimistic capital markets are necessary but not sufficient for a healthy innovation economy. We also need innovation. The good news is we have a lot of that and more is coming in 2024. I have never seen an environment with more innovation in the forty years I have been in the tech sector. It is breathtaking to see.

Let’s start with Artificial intelligence (AI) which was the big event in 2023. The AI “stack” has emerged with Large Language Models and other important models (like audio, imagery, video, etc) operating in the cloud with well-documented and supported APIs that are available to developers to build on. And possibly even more important is the emergence of very good open-source AI models that in many cases can outperform the closed-source models. With the AI stack well developed and supported, we are moving into the application era of AI, much like the browser brought us the application era of the web and the iPhone brought us the application era of the mobile device. This is a big deal. While in 2023, everyone was rightly focused on the large language models like OpenAI, Anthropic, Gemini, Llama, etc, we will see new AI-first applications emerge in 2024 that will start to move the focus and the conversation up the stack. And we will see legacy applications embrace AI to make their products better and to remain competitive with the AI-first disrupters.

But like web3 before it and the internet before that, this new technology will bring litigation and regulatory scrutiny that will raise, and ultimately resolve many important issues. Let’s start with litigation. Should I, as the author of over 9,000 blog posts that have been used to train these large language models, be entitled to some of the revenue they will make? OpenAI generated over $1.5bn in revenue in 2023. Should I get some of that? And do I need to join The New York Times and other publishers in suing to get some of it? That is just one of many issues that these AI models have raised and they will need to be resolved. I believe it will take years of litigation and regulation before we understand what the appropriate business model and norms are for the AI economy. But fortunately, like web3 and the Internet before it, the tech sector will not wait for those issues to be resolved. Trillions of dollars are being invested in the AI sector and that will continue for as far as this eye can see. Innovation never waits for rules and regulations. But it eventually gets them.

That’s a good segue to web3, which has seen a full frontal attack from regulators and lawmakers in the US and elsewhere. 2023 was the year that web3 held its ground and 2024 will be the year that regulators and lawmakers come to terms with web3. We will finally start to see regulatory clarity emerge in the US like has happened in the EU and elsewhere. 

But as important as regulatory clarity is to web3, it pales in importance with the need for a “ChatGPT moment” for blockchain-based technologies. AI developed for over forty years before its coming out party. I think it will take web3 less than half that time. Satoshi gave us the playbook to build a decentralized internet stack back in 2008 and I feel quite confident that we will have massive mainstream applications running on this decentralized stack well before 2028. I think we will see mainstream decentralized applications emerge in 2024 as we now have inexpensive and fast transactions and simpler user interfaces. Vitalik wrote a nice piece about this a few days ago.

AI and Web3 are two sides of the same coin. AI will help make web3 usable for mainstream applications and web3 will help us trust AI. Together they will lead to a more powerful, more resilient, more trusted, and more equitable Internet. 

But none of that will matter if we don’t accelerate our focus on our warming planet. Earth continues to warm at a faster rate than has been predicted, causing increasing pain and suffering across the globe. It is hard for humans to react to something that is thirty years out. It is a lot easier for humans to react to something that is happening to them right now. So this pain and suffering will force an acceleration of the energy transition from carbon to clean energy.

The energy transition is being powered by innovation in energy generation (renewables, nuclear, etc), energy storage (batteries, storage networks, etc), and smarter energy distribution. In the process of rebuilding the infrastructure and systems by which we power this planet, we are also modernizing the energy stack and making it decentralized, modular, and programmable. If you think you’ve seen this movie before, you have. And the good news is that there could even be a happy ending if we move fast enough to make this transition happen in the next twenty years.

The new energy stack has been coming together for the last decade but slowly and very much under the radar. I believe that 2024 will be a coming out party for the new energy stack and I am excited to be investing in this area and helping to make it happen.

So if we have healthier capital markets and more innovation than ever, what is up with the venture capital ecosystem? Well, that’s not such a happy story. Limited Partners, the folks that provide the capital to the venture capital funds, have taken a beating over the last few years and are cautious right now. In addition, we are seeing many large firms scale back or even shut down. And new firms are struggling to raise funds. This is a rationalization of a sector that got very big very fast in the last decade and will need time to find a new normal. Because venture funds have a ten-year life but often take much longer to fully liquidate, the venture capital business changes more slowly than the businesses it funds. I think we are a couple years into a transition that will take at least the first half of this decade to play out.

So while the capital markets will likely be robust in 2024, I do not expect that venture capital investing and venture capital fund formation to grow that much year over year in 2024. I think both will grow but not nearly as fast as the sectors that surround VC.

To sum it all up, we are in a golden era of innovation with AI and Web3 leading to a new more intelligent, resilient and decentralized Internet and the emergence of a new energy stack which will power our lives new ways that will not continue to warm our planet. There are opportunities every which way I look to back founders and founding teams building these new technologies. I think 2024 is going to be a terrific year for tech.