These are my thoughts on some of the biggest firms in the technology industry. Some are informed by my own experiences with these companies over the course of my 35-year career. Others are just observations. This is not intended as an exhaustive academic or financial analysis, just some random observations and opinions.
Nvidia (NVDA)
Market cap: $4,300,000,000,000
CUDA is an impressive and groundbreaking technology and Nvidia stands to profit handsomely once the world figures out what (if anything) massive foundational models are actually good for. But the lazy suzan arrangement with Microsoft and OpenAI seems destined to collapse.
Apple (AAPL)
Market cap: $3,761,000,000,000
A lot of people are bent out of shape about Tim Cook bending a knee at the altar of Trump, but Apple has a huge target painted on its back already and if I was him I’d pander to that pea-brained bully’s ego too if it meant keeping him from going on a revenge-fueled rampage against my company. Apple shareholders care less about principle than the security of their investment, and if Tim Cook won’t do what he has to do to protect it, then someone else will. At the same time, Cook hasn’t done a stellar job of leading Apple. They’re coasting — Apple’s iPhone is like Nabisco’s Oreos; people are born wanting them — and directionless. Is it because there’s nowhere left to go? Surely not. But Apple’s biggest product launches since Steve Jobs died (more than 14 years ago!) have all been refinements of existing products — a watch, headphones, and VR goggles. Yawn.
Alphabet (GOOG)
Market cap: $3,562,000,000,000
Google is a company built on luck. No, that’s unfair. They’re a company that’s coasting on the momentum of a few key breakout technologies: PageRank (the secret sauce behind Google’s search algorithm), MapReduce (which revolutionized processing very large datasets), and Tranformers (the “T” in GPT). Take those away and you’re left with a “false friend” that whimsically takes away just as many useful products as it delivers. Google Cloud Platform (GCP) has a few nice things, but why would you use GCP when there’s AWS?
Microsoft (MSFT)
Market cap: $2,776,000,000,000
Microsoft is one of my biggest tech pet peeves. Their motto should be, “anything you can do, we can do worse.” How can a company that’s been in this business for as long as it has (51 years) still be so. freaking. bad. at. everything? Their user interfaces are excruciating. Everything is named “copilot.” Their search functions couldn’t find the sun in the sky on a clear day. Windows is a convoluted mess. Teams sucks. Outlook sucks — although in fairness, it’s better than Lotus Notes. Azure Cloud sucks. Ever since they acquired it, GitHub sucks. Everything this company touches is junk.
Amazon (AMZN)
Market cap: $2,252,000,000,000
Amazon has some problems. Its founder, Jeff Bezos, is not particularly likable. The company engages in some ethically questionable practices that mostly stem from an inherent conflict of interest with respect to its status as both a third-party sales platform and producer of products. Like other logistics giants — most notably, UPS — they have a questionable track record when it comes to their workforce. This is less a corporate problem than a public policy problem; as long as there are weak labor laws, there will be companies that exploit workers. I am a regular Amazon customer (including Amazon.com, AWS, and Whole Foods) and I interact with AWS professionally. There’s more good here than bad.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM)
Market cap: $1,758,000,000,000
TSMC (as it is usually known) built a massive enterprise manufacturing semiconductor chips to order for other companies, including Apple (it’s biggest customer), Qualcomm, Broadcom, and even other semiconductor manufacturers like Nvidia, AMD, and Intel. Don’t look now, but most of your chips come from (the Republic of) China.
Meta Platforms (META)
Market cap: $1,453,000,000,000
This is another company that I just hate. It’s not because they are evil, although I’m pretty sure they are, and it’s not because Zuck is a twit, although he is. The thing that really grates on me is that they’ve made delivering a supremely awful user experience into a high art. The “feeds” on Facebook and Instagram are inscrutable. They are delivered out of sequence without dates and with more “for you” garbage and ads than the stuff you actually follow. It’s a veritable continuous vomit-stream intended to keep you engaged, all in the name of monetization. What a load of horseshit. No thanks.
Broadcom (AVGO)
Market cap: $1,491,000,000,000
Hock Tan, the Genghis Kahn of CEOs, is currently waging a campaign of conquest as he pillages the customers who can’t migrate of of Broadcom’s products and wriggle out of its bone-crushing contracts fast enough. When it’s all said and done, there’ll be nothing left but burning embers.
Tesla (TSLA)
Market cap: $1,353,000,000,000
Just as Donald Trump is a stupid person’s idea of what a rich man looks like, Elon Musk is a stupid person’s idea of what smart businessman looks like. He hasn’t created anything and he’s clearly got some kind of mental defect. Even setting that aside, a lot of people are fond of saying that Musk’s ability to spot talent and invest in good ideas makes him a savvy businessman. His one real success, PayPal, turned out to have lasting value and fueled what has since been a turbulent shit show. The Boring Company, Neuralink, Twitter, and xAI are all raging dumpster fires. Tesla is a company in decline, due to a combination of a failure to innovate (apart from the breathtakingly stupid Cybertruck) and Musk’s blatant nazism. Who would want to buy something that is both passé and known colloquially as a swastikar? Surprisingly, he hasn’t (yet) managed to tank SpaceX. Maybe it’s just a matter of time.
These next few companies are orders of magnitude smaller in terms of market capitalization, but they are significant companies.
ASML Holdings (ASML)
Market cap: $517,200,000,000
Who?! The biggest tech company you’ve never heard of, ASML holds a global monopoly on advanced Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) Lithography machines, a key component in the manufacture of today’s semiconductors. They’re at the center of numerous controversies, but hey what can you do? We gotta have chips, right?
Oracle (ORCL)
Market cap: $421,000,000,000
I’ve said this before but it bears repeating: Larry Ellison is the devil. Do business with Oracle at your soul’s peril. There’s nothing there that you can’t get just as good or better get elsewhere.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR)
Market cap: $355,100,000,000
One of my rules of thumb is that anything associated with Peter Thiel is inherently evil, so it should come as no surprise that Palantir provides surveillance and intelligence gathering software to government agencies like ICE. Fuck them.
Intel (INTC)
Market cap: $253,000,000,000
Intel is the “name brand” chip maker that’s still around despite numerous competitors producing generics that are just as desirable. The company may sport a cheerful sound mark but like Coriolanus Snow’s roses it can’t eradicate the foul stench of the Randall Schwartz affair.
IBM (IBM)
Market cap: $232,900,000,000
IBM still exists? Oh yes, I am reminded every time I try to bring in a new vendor on a project. Invariably (this has happened at multiple employers) the Procurement department steps in at the last minute and insinuates IBM into the conversation. On one project, they (Procurement) even invalidated my vendor scorecard because IBM wasn’t included in the evaluation. I guess professional services keeps IBM going these days, and funds some ongoing research. It’s been ten years since Watson, and now they’re doing something with quantum computing. That’ll probably reach a peak in a few years then quickly be eclipsed by something from Google. And then it’ll be on to the next thing.