“The odds of winning the lottery are the same whether you buy a ticket or not.”

This seems nonsensical at first. Obviously, there are lottery winners. Therefore, the odds aren’t the same.

Except we’re not mathematicians doing a math problem (at least most of us). Odds are how we navigate the world. When they’re sufficiently low, the useful approach is to assume that they’re zero. Sort of how we deal with invisible signals: There’s sound in a very quiet room, but we can’t hear it. There’s light in a very dark room, but we can’t see it. These never go to zero, but we treat them as if they do.

The story of playing very long odds might give you hope or solace or energize you. That’s what they make movies about, after all. But in practice, you’re buying that story, not a useful chance of winning something.

Paul McGowan points out that the difference between a $500 stereo and a $5000 stereo is enormous. But the difference between the more expensive stereo’s sound and one costing $50,000 is vanishingly small… Soon it becomes a story, not a sound.

Buy the best story you can afford, with all the benefits it comes with. But don’t be confused by the odds or tiny differences. They’re probably zero.

Each morning I hand in my too cool GenX card for a few minutes and go STRAIGHT BOOMER while using Facebook to wish my friends a Happy Birthday. That’s right Birthday Notifications Product Manager, I’m your 365 DAU. Some folks publish their ages while others have them hidden but quite often I’m surprised by how young most people still are – in the sense that maybe we met while they were just out of school or in their first job, and this was 10-15 years ago, so they’re early 30s or whatever in 2026. For context, I’m 52 and have been out in Bay Area since 1998 — many of the folks in my network were born later, the Millennial cohort especially over-represented on Facebook I’d imagine.

It also occurs to me that something different might be happening on the other end of the connection: the Birthday celebrant feeling they are so old. My own projection? Possibly. I’ve written before about my 20s and 30s trying to outrun a ‘failure tiger‘ and then in my 40s coming to grips with moving into an ‘elder’ statesman tier. But conversations among ourselves suggest this cycle repeats itself every generation. Plus the hastening pace of both signal and noise within the AI supercycle has its own exhaustion (exasperation?) for many.

Rarely does it help to tell someone they shouldn’t feel the way they do, so dismissing their ‘I’m getting so old’ without recognizing the power of those thoughts would be ineffective, despite the bluntness of this post’s title. Instead I’ll just reiterate what I said in the first paragraph: the “HBD ” poke you see from me isn’t just a ‘way to go’ but it’s a ‘you’ve got a ways to go.’ Lots done already and lots more time, energy, and cycles ahead.