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SpaceX’s Big Freaking Rocket – The Full Story (G-Rated Version)

Note: This is a G-rated version of the original post, and totally appropriate reading for people of all ages, but links may lead to not-G-rated places.

PDF: We made a fancy PDF of this post for printing and offline viewing. Buy it here (make sure you choose “G-Rated Version”).

Yesterday, Elon Musk got on stage at the 2016 International Astronautical Congress and unveiled the first real details about the big freaking rocket they’re making.

A couple months ago, when SpaceX first announced that this would be happening in late September, it hit me that I might still have special privileges with them, kind of grandfathered in from my time working with Elon and his companies in 2015 (which resulted in an in-depth four-part blog series). So I reached out and asked if I could learn about the big freaking rocket ahead of time and write a post about it.

They said yes.

A little while later, I got on a call with Elon to discuss the rocket, the timeline, and the big plan this was all a part of. We started off how we always do.

(on the phone) Tim: You're Elon Musk. Elon: I'm Elon Musk.

Stick Tim and Stick Elon on the phone in silence

Then I brought up the rocket.

Tim: The Mars rocket is big. Elon: Yes, it's quite big.

Tim: It's gonna take people to Mars. Elon: That's the plan.

Tim: I'm gonna get to go because I'm a special boy. Elon: (silence)

Stick Tim and Stick Elon on the phone in silence

Eventually, we were able to settle in to a fascinating conversation about this insane machine SpaceX is building and what’s going to happen with it.

Now, before we get into things—

This post is only a piece of The SpaceX Story—one of the most amazing stories of our time—and a story I spent three months and 40,000 words telling last year. If you really want to understand this and you haven’t read that post yet, I recommend you start there. The post has three parts, divided into five pages:

Part 1: The Story of Humans and Space

Part 2: Musk’s Mission

Part 3: How to Colonize Mars
Phase 1: Figure out how to put things into space

Phase 2: Revolutionize the cost of space travel
Phase 3: Colonize Mars

For those who have read the post and want a refresher or those who just want to hear about the big freaking rocket and move on with their day, here’s a quick overview of the background:

The Context

To understand why the big freaking rocket matters, you have to understand this sentence:

SpaceX is trying to make human life multi-planetary by building a self-sustaining, one-million-person civilization on Mars.

Let’s go part by part.

Why make human life multi-planetary?

Two reasons:

1) It’s fun and exciting. (Here’s a clip from one of the interviews I did with Elon last year where he articulates this point.)

2) It’s not a great idea to have all of our eggs in one basket. Right now we’re all on Earth, which means that if something terrible happens on Earth—caused by nature or by our own technology—we’re done. That’s like having a precious digital photo album saved only on one not-necessarily-reliable hard drive. If you were in that situation, you’d be smart to back the album up on a second hard drive. That’s the idea here. Elon calls it “life insurance for the species.”

Why Mars?

Venus is a jerk, with its lead-melting temperatures, its crushing atmospheric pressure, and its unbearable winds.

The moon has few natural resources, a 28-day day, and with no atmosphere to either provide protection against the sun during the day or warm things up at night, both day and night become murderous. Same deal on Mercury.

Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune are just huge balls of gas pretending to be planets.

Certain moons of Jupiter and Saturn are possibly habitable, but they’re farther away and colder and darker than Mars, so why would we do that.

Pluto is even farther and colder and darker. Stop asking me about Pluto.

That leaves Mars. Mars isn’t a good time. If Mars were a place on Earth, it’s somewhere no one would want to go. But compared to all of those other options, it’s a dream. It’s cold but not that cold. It’s kind of dark but not that much darker than Earth. It’s far but not that far. Its day is almost the same length as ours, which is nice for us and hugely helpful for growing Earthly vegetation. Its surface gravity isn’t crazy low or crazy high (it’s around a third of Earth’s). It has a ton of (frozen) water and a decent amount of CO2, which are critical for early attempts at living there and hugely helpful for future attempts to “terraform” the planet into a place more livable for humans. All things considered, we’re very lucky to have an option as good as Mars—in most other solar systems, we probably wouldn’t.

Why 1,000,000 people?

Because Elon thinks that’s a rough estimate for the number of people you’d need to have on Mars in order for the Mars civilization to be “self-sustaining”—with self-sustaining defined by Elon as: “Even if the spaceships from Earth permanently stop coming, the colony doesn’t eventually die out—which requires a huge industrial base, and a much harder industrial base to create than being on Earth.”

In other words, if hard drive #2 relies on hard drive #1 in order to stay working, then your photo album isn’t really backed up, is it? The whole point of hard drive #2 is to save the day if hard drive #1 permanently crashes.

And while the Earth hard drive could “crash” for many exciting reasons—an asteroid hits us, AI kills us, Trump kills us, ISIS creates some upsetting biological weapon, etc.—Elon also warns about the less dramatic possibility that the Earth ships stop coming simply because Earth civilization stops having the capability to send them:

The spaceships from Earth could stop coming for other reasons—it could be WWIII, it could be that Earth becomes a religious state, it could be some gradual decline where Earth civilization just sinks under its own weight. At one point the Egyptians were able to build pyramids, and then they forgot how to do that. And then they forgot how to read hieroglyphics, until the Rosetta Stone. Rome as well—they had indoor plumbing, they had advanced aqueducts, and then that fell apart. China at one point had the world’s biggest fleet of sailing ships and they were sailing as far as Africa, then some crazy emperor came along and decided that was bad and had them all burnt. So you just don’t know what’s gonna happen. The key threshold to pass is the number of people and tons of cargo required to make things self-sustaining. And that’s probably something like a million people and probably something like 10-100 million tons of cargo.

In other words, let’s not wait on this.

Great, but how the heck do you bring 1,000,000 people to Mars?

You make this green part exist:

Blue circle: People who can afford to go to Mars. Yellow circle: People who want to go to Mars. Green intersection: At least a million people

It’s kind of simple. If we get to a point where there are a million people on Earth who both want to go to Mars and can afford to go to Mars, there will be a million people on Mars.

Unfortunately, right now the yellow circle is tiny and the blue circle doesn’t exist.

Elon thinks—and I kind of do too—that if the blue circle can get big enough, the yellow circle will take care of itself. If Mars is affordable and safe and you know you’ll be able to come back, a lot of people will want to go.

The hard part is the blue circle. Here’s the issue:

Last time the US Congress checked with NASA, the cost to send a five-person crew to Mars was $50 billion. $10 billion a person. Elon thinks that to make the blue circle sufficiently large, it needs to cost $500,000 a person. 1/20,000 of the current cost.

1/20,000.

That’s like looking at the car industry and saying, “Right now a new Honda costs around $20,000. To make this a viable industry, we need to get the cost of a new car down to $1.”

So what the heck?

Here’s the heck:

Imagine if the way planes worked was that they took off, flew to their destination, but then instead of landing, all the passengers parachuted down to the ground and then the plane landed by smashing into the ocean and blowing up. So every plane flew exactly once, and to have a new flight happen, you’d have to build another plane.

A plane ticket would cost $1.5 million.

Space travel is currently so expensive mostly because we land rockets by crashing them into the ocean (or incinerating them in the atmosphere).

When Elon started SpaceX, he was determined to fix this problem. It was a tall order, given that no one had ever done it before—including nations like the US and Russia who had spent billions trying. But SpaceX puzzled away at the problem year after year, and after trying and failing a bunch of times, in late 2015, they nailed it:

Then they nailed it again. And again. And again. Now they nail it more often than not. Here’s a daytime view of a recent landing:

Soon, for the first time, a previously used-and-landed, flight-tested Falcon 9 will carry out a new mission for SpaceX, officially making SpaceX rockets “reusable.”

To fly a mission on a used rocket, you only need to pay for propellant (fuel and liquid oxygen) and a bit of routine maintenance. This cuts the price of space travel down by 100 or even 1,000 times.

That leaves us with somewhere between 19/20 and 199/200 of the cost left to cut. Part of that will happen when SpaceX takes 100 or more people to Mars at a time, instead of five (the number Congress asked NASA about). The rest of it is taken care of by a few simple innovations, like refueling the spaceships in orbit (which lowers the cost by 5-10x) and manufacturing propellant on Mars so you don’t have to carry your return propellant with you (which lowers the cost by another 5-10x). More on those things later.

Suddenly, not only can the price get down to $500,000/ticket, it can probably go even lower (Elon thinks it could eventually cost under $100,000/person). You may not have noticed it yet, but SpaceX’s innovations are in the process of creating a total revolution in the cost of space travel—a change that will open doors we can’t imagine being open today. And when that revolution goes far enough, SpaceX’s vision of putting 1,000,000 people on Mars really—actually—seriously—may happen.

We’re going to Mars. And this week, SpaceX showed us the thing that’s gonna take us there.

The Rocket

“It’s so mind-blowing. It blows my mind, and I see it every week.”

Elon’s pumped. And when you learn about the big freaking rocket he’s building, you’ll understand why.

First, let’s absorb the challenge at hand. It’s often said that space is hard. To this day, only a few hundred people have been in space, only a few countries have the ability to launch something into space, and the history of human space travel is littered with tragic launch failures. Firing something super heavy and delicate and full of explosive liquid up through the atmosphere without anything going wrong is incredibly hard.

But when we talk about humans going into space, we’re talking mostly about humans going into Low Earth Orbit, a layer of space between 100 and 1,200 miles above the ground—and normally, they’re headed only 250 miles up to the International Space Station. The only time humans have gone farther were the small handful of Americans who made it out to the moon in the 1960s, traveling about 250,000 miles away.

When Earth and Mars are at their closest, Mars is somewhere between 34 and 60 million miles away—about 200 times farther away than the moon and about 200,000 times farther away than the ISS.

The moon is just over one light second away.

distance diagram of Earth and the moon with a bar representing 1 light second that nearly reaches the moon

Mars is more than three light minutes away.

Mars is far.

Elon likes to compare the Earth-to-Mars trip to crossing the Atlantic Ocean, noting that using that scale, going to the moon would only be crossing the English Channel (and going to the ISS would be going to a dock 117 feet off the shore). Continuing with that comparison, he says, “A rocket made to go to Low Earth Orbit or even the moon is basically like a coastal fishing vessel, compared to a colonial transport system that is trying to go 1,000 times further.”

On top of that, it might be worth it to take only a few humans or a single satellite up into Low Earth Orbit—but if you’re going all the way to Mars, you want to take a lot more than that. So you have to take much more mass, much further. Multiplying the distance factor by the payload factor, Elon explains that a Mars transport system “is like literally a million times more capable than what the current world launch system can do. It has to be.”

It also has to be incredibly advanced. Elon says, “It’s not just bigger, it needs to be more efficient. There’s a false dichotomy when it comes to rockets of ‘small and complex’ or ‘big and dumb.’ People talk about the ‘big dumb booster’—that won’t work. You need a big smart booster. If you want to build a Mars colony, you have no choice— you have to make it big and efficient.”

So that’s all you have to do—build a rocket that’s a million times more capable than today’s best rockets but who’s also efficient and smart and a good listener.

SpaceX is building it. Meet the Big Freaking Rocket.1

spacex mars rocket

Hard to quite understand the bigness from that picture. So let’s add in some scale:

spacex mars rocket with house and person drawn to scale

Or how about this?

spacex mars rocket shown over a football field for scale

It would barely fit diagonally across a football field without going into the stands.

There’s also this:

spacex mars rocket in skyline for scale

It’s a skyscraper. Or as Elon puts it, “by far the biggest flying object ever.”

In yesterday’s presentation, Elon explained that this isn’t a first crack at how it might look, or an artist’s impression of how it might look—it’s how it’s going to look. This is the thing they’re building.

Unfortunately, SpaceX seems to be going through an existential crisis when it comes to naming this thing—first it was the Mars Colonial Transporter, then (because it can go way past Mars) it was renamed the Interplanetary Transport System, then yesterday in the presentation, Elon said they haven’t actually settled on a name yet but that the specific spaceship that makes the maiden voyage to Mars might be called Heart of Gold1—so no one knows what to call it.

Which is why—until I hear otherwise—I’ll be calling it something Elon once referred to it as: the Big Freaking Rocket (BFR).

The Big Freaking Rocket is freaking big. At 400 feet tall, it’s the height of a 40-story skyscraper. At 40 feet in diameter, a school bus could fit entirely underneath its footprint. It’s more than three times the mass and generates over three times the thrust of the gargantuan Saturn V—the rocket used in the Apollo mission—which currently stands as by far the biggest rocket humanity has made.

Here’s how it stacks up next to a bunch of other rockets in size:

rocket-lineup

The difference is even more extreme when you compare the rockets by how many kilograms of payload (i.e. cargo and/or people) they can each take to orbit:

rocket-lineup-2

For comparison, SpaceX’s awesome Falcon 9 rocket will be able to take about 4 tons of payload to Mars, and the Falcon Heavy—which is about to be today’s most powerful rocket—will be able to take about 13 tons to Mars. Elon believes the BFR will be able to take a few hundred tons of payload to Mars at first and eventually be able to take 1,000 tons. The absurdity of that statistic—that the behemoth Falcon Heavy can only manage a little over 1% of the BFR’s ultimate Mars payload—is pretty hard to absorb.

Now, to be clear—what I’ve been calling the Big Freaking Rocket this whole time is actually two things: a Big Freaking Spaceship sitting on top of a Big Freaking Booster.

diagram of spacex mars rocket. spaceship: crew cabin, cargo cabin, liquid oxygen tank, methane fuel tank, 9 Raptor engines. booster: liquid oxygen tank, methane fuel tank, 42 Raptor engines

The Big Freaking Booster

Let’s start by talking about the booster. The 25-story-high booster—AKA the actual rocket of the BFR—is what Elon calls “quite a beast.” It’s the biggest booster of all time—by far. By physical size, definitely, but even more so by thrust.

In the SpaceX post, I talked about the Falcon 9’s nine Merlin engines, and how each one was powerful enough to lift a stack of 40 cars up into the sky—in total, that meant the Falcon 9 set of engines could lift 360 cars. The Falcon Heavy, with its 27 Merlin engines, could lift a stack of over 1,000 cars up past the clouds.2

The Big Freaking Booster sits atop a different kind of engine: the Raptor.

spacex raptor engine

The Raptor engine looks a lot like a Merlin, with one key difference—by significantly increasing the pressure, SpaceX has made the Raptor over three times more powerful than a Merlin.

A single Raptor engine produces 310 tons of thrust—enough to lift 310 tons, or a stack of 172 cars, or an entire Boeing 747 airplane, into the sky. That’s what one Raptor can do.3

And the BFB has 42 of them.4

view of 42 Raptor engines

All together, that’s an unheard of 13,033 tons of thrust, enough to push more than 7,000 cars—or 50 large airplanes—up to space.

The Big Freaking Spaceship

So then there’s the spacecraft—which SpaceX calls the Interplanetary Spaceship, and which I’m going to keep calling the Big Freaking Spaceship because it’s more fun. The BFS is the big cool-looking thing on top of the BFB (in case you’re getting Big Freaking Confused—the Big Freaking Spaceship (BFS) on top of the Big Freaking Booster (BFB) together make what I’ve been calling the Big Freaking Rocket (BFR)). The BFS is what will take the people and cargo to Mars. It’s also what will launch, on its own, off Mars and return to Earth with people who want to come back.

The BFS is itself the size of a tall, 16-story building, and is 55 feet wide at its thickest point. In addition to hundreds, and eventually a thousand tons of cargo, the BFS will be able to carry as many as 100 people at the beginning, and Elon believes that number could grow to 200 and even above 300 people over time—like a cruise ship.

With nine Raptor engines, it’ll have more liftoff thrust on its own than any of today’s rockets—including next year’s Falcon Heavy. For a second-stage, cargo-carrying spacecraft to pack more thrust than even the most powerful first-stage rockets is outrageous.

Here’s a cross-section up close:

cross section of spacex mars spacecraft

I asked Elon what it’ll be like to ride in it. He said, “Well, you’d be in a giant spaceship in microgravity.5 I mean, it would be pretty fun. You’d be floating around.”

Good point.

In the presentation Q&A, he added: “It has to be really fun and exciting, it can’t feel cramped or boring. The crew compartment is set up so that you can do zero-g games, you can float around, there will be movies, lecture halls, cabins, a restaurant—it’ll be really fun to go.”

Um, yeah, get me on that thing now. A zero gravity cruise ship. With this view:

observatory_f_hd_3-1

And if you were to go, here’s how the whole thing would work:

1) Get on the ship. The BFR will be taking off from pad 39A at Cape Canaveral, Florida—the same pad that the Apollo astronauts left from. This is because that pad was built to be absurdly large since they didn’t know yet how big a rocket they’d be using. When you get there, you head up the tower and across the bridge into the Big Freaking Spaceship.

air-bridge

2) Take off. You strap in, and the BFR lifts off. After a few minutes, the first-stage BFB separates and heads back down to Earth. The BFS that you’re in continues onward and settles into Earth’s orbit.

29937258946_8345b8ae6e_o

3) Refuel in orbit. After landing back on Earth, the BFB is capped with a new BFS—this one full of propellant (liquid oxygen and methane).6 It lifts off again and pings the propellant-filled spaceship into orbit, where it rendezvouses7 with your spaceship. The two connect like two orcas holding hands as the propellant is transferred.

29343821794_9e05bfd6d7_h

This happens a few more times until your spaceship is entirely refueled.8 This process is critical A) for lowering the cost of the trip, and B) for making the trip much faster. People have always thought a journey to Mars would take six or nine months, but the BFS will get there in three.

4) Head to Mars. Three months of fun times in microgravity and getting really sick of the other people on the ship.9 During the journey, the spaceship steers using cold gas thrusters, powered by huge solar arrays:

29343822854_ec6f4ffad1_h

5) Enter the Mars atmosphere. Time for the heat shield to be miserable:

29343824424_87236132a0_h

6) Land on Mars. Upright, the same way the first stage lands on Earth.

7) Live on Mars for a while doing god knows what. If it’s early on in the colonization process, you’re probably there to work and help build up the initial industries. Later on, it could be anything—research, entrepreneurship, or just simply adventure.

8) Make propellant on Mars. This will be one of the key early industries to set up on Mars. Propellant consists of liquid oxygen (O2) and methane (CH4), which are both conveniently easy to make from the massive quantities of H2O (ice) and CO2 (the main gas in the Martian atmosphere) already sitting on Mars. They’ll use this propellant to load up the spaceship you came there on in preparation for its voyage back to Earth. Doing this spares the massive expense of having to carry propellant all the way from Earth for the return trip.

9) Either stay forever or come back. If you come back, you’ll do so by boarding one of the BFS’s that came over in the last batch.

10) Land vertically on Earth. Just like you did on Mars. The spaceship will go through routine maintenance in preparation to head back to Mars two years later.

11) Be that insufferable person who can’t be part of any conversation without figuring out some way to bring up your time on Mars.

Mission complete.

This kind-of-confusing diagram sums it up:

diagram

And this video sums it up very deliciously:

So that’s the deal with the Big Freaking Rocket and how it’ll all work.10

Now let’s talk about how this all might play out.

The Plan

Back to reality. So how do we get from, “there’s this rad potential rocket that might be ready to launch in five years” to “we’re a thriving multi-planetary civilization with a million people on Mars”?

10,000 flights. That’s how many BFS trips to Mars Elon thinks it’ll take to bring the Mars population to a million.

Why 10,000? Because there will be at least 100 people on most trips, and that number will go up over time—but there will also be some people coming back from Mars each time other people go. In the lower part of each BFS will be a huge cargo compartment. Elon thinks we’ll need to get at least 10 million tons of cargo to Mars for the million-person colony to become self-sustaining, which will happen in a little over 10,000 flights if SpaceX can get the cargo payload capacity up to 1,000 tons relatively quickly, as they hope to.

And when will these 10,000 trips start?

Well let’s take a look at the Mars-Earth Synodic calendar—which deals with the dates when Earth and Mars are closest to each other (called a “Mars opposition”). Earth’s orbit is smaller than Mars’s, so Earth goes around the sun quicker—so much so that every 26 months, Earth laps Mars and they’re briefly next to each other. That’s the one time when Earth-Mars transfers can happen.

We’re currently pretty close to Mars, since the last Mars opposition happened on May 22, 2016. That’s why, if you happen to be an “oh look there’s a way-too-bright star let me take out my Sky Guide app and figure out which planet that is and then tell everyone I’m with and find that, yet again, no one cares, because everyone is a horrible person” nerd like me, you know that all summer, Mars has been super prominent and bright in our night sky.11 A year from now, Mars will be on the other side of the sun from us, and we won’t see it in our night sky at all.

The 2016 Earth-Mars opposition is also a special one, because it’s the last time it’ll happen without anybody talking about it.

Why? Because starting with the next one in July of 2018, SpaceX will start sending stuff to Mars each time there’s an opposition, and this will become increasingly big news each time. Here’s the tentative schedule, if everything goes perfectly to plan:

Upcoming Mars Oppositions – and what SpaceX is planning for each

July, 2018: Send a Dragon spacecraft (the Falcon 9’s SUV-size spacecraft) to Mars with cargo

October, 2020: Send multiple Dragons with more cargo

December, 2022: Maiden BFS voyage to Mars. Carrying only cargo. This is the spaceship Elon wants to call Heart of Gold.

January, 2025: First people-carrying BFS voyage to Mars.

Let’s all go back and read that last line again.

January, 2025: First people-carrying BFS voyage to Mars.

Did you catch that?

If things go to plan, the Neil Armstrong of Mars will touch down about eight years from now.

And zero people are talking about it.

But they will be. The hype will start a couple years from now when the Dragons make their Mars trips, and it’ll kick into high gear in 2022 when the Big Freaking Spaceship finally launches and heads to Mars and lands there. Everyone will be talking about this.

And the buzz will just accelerate from there as the first group of BFS astronauts are announced and become household names, admired for their bravery, because everyone will know there’s a reasonable chance something goes wrong and they don’t make it back alive. Then, in 2024 they’ll take off on a three-month trip that’ll be front-page news every day. When they land, everyone on Earth will be watching. It’ll be 1969 all over again.

This is a thing that’s happening.

Elon doesn’t like when people ask him about this first voyage and the Neil Armstrong of Mars. He says that it’s not about humanity putting a new multi-planetary feather in its cap, and he’s quick to point out, “putting people on the moon was super exciting—but where’s our moon base?” In other words, having humanity give Mars a high five for bragging rights is not what matters—what matters is carrying out the full vision of actually creating a full, self-sustaining civilization on Mars.

And yeah, sure, fine. But I’m excited for 2025. It’s gonna be so fun.

Anyway, so then the next Mars opposition will roll around in 2027. This time, if everything stays on track, multiple BFS’s will make the trek to Mars, carrying more people than were in the original group in 2025. And the spaceship that went over in 2025—the space Mayflowerwill make its return trip to Earth, carrying some of the first group of Mars pioneers back home. They’ll return to massive celebration as international heroes, and the legendary spaceship will head off to enjoy its life in the Air and Space Museum.

Meanwhile, we’ll all be glued to the TV12 as the group of BFS’s arrive on Mars, where the people in them will continue the grueling work started by the 2025 group. The early colonists will have a hard job like early colonists always do—and this will be extra hard. Not only will they have to truly start from scratch—digging mines and quarries and refineries, constructing the first underground village habitat with the first Martian hospitals and schools and greenhouse farms, laying down a giant plumbing system to pump water into the village, building that first rocket propellant plant—but they’ll have to do all of this in a place where they can’t go outside without a spacesuit on, and where everyone and everything they’ve ever known is on a pale blue dot in the sky.

It’ll be hard, but for the explorers of our world the payoff may be worth it. Elon says: “You can go anywhere on Earth in 24 hours. There’s no physical frontier on Earth anymore. Now, space is that frontier, so it’ll appeal to anyone with that exploratory spirit.”

In April of 2029, SpaceX will send an even larger group of spacecraft, people, and cargo to Mars. This time, it’ll probably get less attention. By 2029, we’ll probably be getting used to the idea that there are people on Mars and that every 26 months, a great two-way migration occurs.

The growing Mars colony will continue to entice the adventurers—those who read about the great sailing exhibitions of the 15th and 16th centuries and yearn to be there. When I asked Elon about how the small colony will grow and evolve, he said: “Think of the Mars colony as an organism that starts off as a zygote, and then becomes multi-cellular, and then gets organ differentiation—so it doesn’t look exactly the same all the way along, any more than the first settlement in Jamestown wasn’t representative of the United States today. It’ll be the same with Mars—Mars will be the new New World.”

The 2031 and 2033 and 2035 oppositions will bring substantially more people to the new New World. By this point, the budding Martian city will be a part of our lives. We’ll follow the Twitter feeds of some of our favorite journalists on Mars to keep up with what’s happening there. We’ll all get hooked on Mars’s first hit reality shows. And some of us will start thinking, “Should I sign up to go to Mars one of these years before I get too old?”

By 2050, there will be over a hundred thousand people on Mars. The company your son works for might have a branch there, and he’ll be saying goodbye to a couple co-workers who are about to head to the planet for a 52-month stint. He tells you that he doesn’t want to go because he doesn’t want to take his ninth-grade daughter away from her life and her friends. But he says she’s applying to a program that would bring her to Mars from the ages of 17 to 23 for an urban planning degree. You worry, even though you know it’s irrational. It’s just that you remember the days when going to Mars was risky and dangerous, and some part of you is still uncomfortable with it. And what if she decides not to come back?

By 2065, the early days of Mars seem primitive. During the first few Mars migrations, only a few spaceships made the trip with only 100 people in each, it was prohibitively expensive to go, it took three months to get there, and there were only a few very grueling industries on Mars to work in.

In 2065, every Mars opposition sees over 1,000 ships make the trip, each carrying over 500 people and a couple thousand tons of cargo. Half a million people make the journey every two years, and about 50,000 less than that come back, because Earth-to-Mars migration capacity grows a little bit each time as more ships are built. The trip, which now takes only 30 days, costs only $60,000 (in 2016 dollars)—and most people just pay off the ticket price with their well-paying job on Mars (labor is in high demand as the early Mars cities continue to expand and new cities are built).

Many people remember those early days of the Mars colony when it was all about SpaceX—funded by SpaceX or their cargo clients and driven by their ambition and their ingenuity and their guts. But now, dozens of companies specialize in Earth-Mars transit and hundreds of companies focus on development and entrepreneurship on Mars. And transit is paid for like planes and trains and buses are paid for today—by passengers buying tickets.

A decade later, the 2074 migration brings the Mars population above a million people. Small celebrations break out around both worlds, as a long-awaited landmark is achieved. Most people though, don’t even notice.

___________

Everything I just said was based on things Elon said on my phone call with him. Some of it was numbers he said directly—like the last paragraph, which came from him saying, “I’m hopeful that we can get to a million roughly 50 years after the start.” Other times it was me extrapolating a possible future, given the predictions I heard from him. It’s all based in reality. At least, it’s based in Elon Musk’s best crack at reality. He was very careful to qualify everything that sounded like a prediction or a projection with, “This is what might happen if things go well—but there’s no way to know, and many things could go wrong along the way.” He emphasized that “it’s not that SpaceX has all the answers and we’ve got it covered or anything like that—it’s that we want to show that it’s possible. But it’s far from a given.” As for things that could go wrong, he listed off a few (like World War III), and one of his biggest concerns is that if he somehow dies young, SpaceX could be taken over by someone who wants to milk the company for profit instead of staying single-mindedly focused on the Mars civilization mission.

But if SpaceX can manage to get this thing started, Elon thinks it could be not just a big deal in itself, it could jumpstart a slew of new possibilities for humanity. He explains:

The big picture isn’t just to back up the hard drive but to really change humanity into a multi-planetary species. Essentially what we’re saying is we’re establishing a regular cargo route to Mars. With the economic forcing function of interplanetary commerce, there will be the resources and the incentive to massively improve space transport technology, and I think then things really go to a whole new level.

What I’m describing may sound really crazy, but it actually will be a small fraction of what is ultimately done, as long as we become a two-planet civilization. Look at shipping technology in Europe. When all you had to do was cross the Mediterranean, the ships were pretty lame—they couldn’t cross the Atlantic. So commerce basically had short-range vessels. Without the forcing function, shipping technology didn’t improve that much—you could do the same things with ships, pretty much, around the time of Julius Caesar as you could around the time of Columbus. 1,500 years later, you could still just cross the Mediterranean. But as soon as there was a reason to cross the Atlantic, shipping technology improved dramatically. There needed to be the American colonies in order for that to happen.

The people at SpaceX believe that once we’re on Mars, the rest of the Solar System becomes accessible as well. That’s why they didn’t just create images of their Big Freaking Rocket standing proudly on Mars. They showed it flying by Jupiter.

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And Saturn.

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And bringing human explorers to faraway moons.

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They’re planning for a time when any person can go anywhere they want in our vast Solar System—a new golden age for exploration, with uncharted physical frontiers in every direction.

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More G-rated posts from the original Elon Musk series:

Part 3, on SpaceX: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars [$3 PDF]
Part 4, on the thing that makes Elon so effective: The Cook and the Chef: Musk’s Secret Sauce

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  1. This is a Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy reference. In the book, Heart of Gold was “the first spacecraft to make use of the Infinite Improbability.” Elon likes the name because he thinks SpaceX’s path was highly improbable.

  2. To be clear, payload is what the rocket can actually bring to space. Thrust is what the engines can push to space, which has to include both the entire BFR and its contained payload. Almost all of a rocket’s thrust is used to lift the rocket itself, with only a small fraction of it allotted for the payload. When I talk about thrust in these posts and say how many cars a set of engines could push to space, I’m talking about a hypothetical scenario in which there is no rocket, just the rocket’s engines with a platform on top of them and cars stacked on top of the platform.

  3. Here’s a video of Raptor’s first test firing, which happened a few days ago. It would be so unfun to put your hand through that column of flame.

  4. I asked Elon why there were 42 smaller-sized engines instead of a smaller number of huge ones, and he said that they had imagined larger engines at one point but that “optimization seems to call for more small engines, not fewer big engines.” I can’t explain more than that because I don’t get it.

  5. We often think of floating astronauts as being in “zero gravity.” In fact, they’re very much inside of the Earth’s gravity well when they’re floating—they’re just orbiting around the Earth so fast that they’re in constant free fall. The effect is the same—they float—but since they’re not actually in zero gravity, we call it microgravity.

  6. The methane part of that is a big innovation. Other rockets, including the Falcons, use kerosene as the primary fuel—but for a bunch of reasons, methane seems to make more sense for a Mars trip.

  7. Upsettingly-spelled word.

  8. Elon says that this is the plan if the refueling process is quick, like a couple weeks or less. If it takes a lot longer, then the spacecraft will be launched first without people, and then whenever it’s all refueled and ready to go, a spacecraft carrying just people will be launched and it will deliver the crew to the spacecraft for an Earth orbit rendezvous.

  9. People like to bring up the dangers of space radiation during this time. Elon thinks the dangers are overstated, and that with proper precautions (like a protective layer of water around the crew cabin), the radiation harm to a crew member would be similar to the damage to your body if you were to become a smoker during those three months and then stop. Not ideal, but not too big a deal.

  10. In the presentation, Elon went off on a tangent at one point that delighted me. He talked about the possibility of the BFR’s spaceship doubling as a super-fast way to transport stuff or people around the Earth: “It actually has enough capability that you could maybe even go to orbit with the spaceship…and maybe there is some market for really fast transport of stuff around the world…We could transport cargo to anywhere on Earth in 45 minutes at the longest—most would be maybe 20, 25 minutes. So maybe if we had a floating platform off the coast of New York, you could go from New York to Tokyo in 25 minutes. You could cross the Atlantic in 10 minutes. Most of your time would be getting to the ship, and then it would be real quick after that. There are some intriguing possibilities there, but we’re not counting on that.” YES. Amazing glimpse of the world of the future, when someone will text you from Delhi and ask if you want to zip over from San Francisco to grab lunch, and you’ll say, “Sure, but I have a meeting in two hours, so I can’t stay long.” Except you won’t, because you’ll just meet your friend virtually and it’ll feel exactly how it would to be there in person. So there goes that.

  11. Right next to Mars all summer has been a pretty bright Saturn—something I’ve also told a bunch of people who don’t care.

  12. or whatever 2027 humans are glued to when they’re glued to something


  1. All images are from spacex.com, unless they have “waitbutwhy.com” written at the bottom, in which case they were made by me.

The post SpaceX’s Big Freaking Rocket – The Full Story (G-Rated Version) appeared first on Wait But Why.

  •  

SpaceX’s Big Fucking Rocket – The Full Story

We made a fancy PDF of this post (original and G-rated versions) for printing and offline viewing. Buy it here. (Or see a preview.)

Yesterday, Elon Musk got on stage at the 2016 International Astronautical Congress and unveiled the first real details about the big fucking rocket they’re making.

A couple months ago, when SpaceX first announced that this would be happening in late September, it hit me that I might still have special privileges with them, kind of grandfathered in from my time working with Elon and his companies in 2015 (which resulted in an in-depth four-part blog series). So I reached out and asked if I could learn about the big fucking rocket ahead of time and write a post about it.

They said yes.

A little while later, I got on a call with Elon to discuss the rocket, the timeline, and the big plan this was all a part of. We started off how we always do.

(on the phone) Tim: You're Elon Musk. Elon: I'm Elon Musk.

Stick Tim and Stick Elon on the phone in silence

Then I brought up the rocket.

Tim: The Mars rocket is big. Elon: Yes, it's quite big.

Tim: It's gonna take people to Mars. Elon: That's the plan.

Tim: I'm gonna get to go because I'm a special boy. Elon: (silence)

Stick Tim and Stick Elon on the phone in silence

Eventually, we were able to settle in to a fascinating conversation about this insane machine SpaceX is building and what’s going to happen with it.

Now, before we get into things—

This post is only a piece of The SpaceX Story—one of the most amazing stories of our time—and a story I spent three months and 40,000 words telling last year. If you really want to understand this and you haven’t read that post yet, I recommend you start there. The post has three parts, divided into five pages:

Part 1: The Story of Humans and Space

Part 2: Musk’s Mission

Part 3: How to Colonize Mars
Phase 1: Figure out how to put things into space

Phase 2: Revolutionize the cost of space travel
Phase 3: Colonize Mars

For those who have read the post and want a refresher or those who just want to hear about the big fucking rocket and move on with their day, here’s a quick overview of the background:

The Context

To understand why the big fucking rocket matters, you have to understand this sentence:

SpaceX is trying to make human life multi-planetary by building a self-sustaining, one-million-person civilization on Mars.

Let’s go part by part.

Why make human life multi-planetary?

Two reasons:

1) It’s fun and exciting. (Here’s a clip from one of the interviews I did with Elon last year where he articulates this point.)

2) It’s not a great idea to have all of our eggs in one basket. Right now we’re all on Earth, which means that if something terrible happens on Earth—caused by nature or by our own technology—we’re done. That’s like having a precious digital photo album saved only on one not-necessarily-reliable hard drive. If you were in that situation, you’d be smart to back the album up on a second hard drive. That’s the idea here. Elon calls it “life insurance for the species.”

Why Mars?

Venus is a dick, with its lead-melting temperatures, its crushing atmospheric pressure, and its unbearable winds.

The moon has few natural resources, a 29-day day, and with no atmosphere to either provide protection against the sun during the day or warm things up at night, both day and night become murderous. Same deal on Mercury.

Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune are just huge balls of gas pretending to be planets.

Certain moons of Jupiter and Saturn are possibly habitable, but they’re farther away and colder and darker than Mars, so why would we do that.

Pluto is even farther and colder and darker. Stop asking me about Pluto.

That leaves Mars. Mars isn’t a good time. If Mars were a place on Earth, it’s somewhere no one would want to go. But compared to all of those other options, it’s a dream. It’s cold but not that cold. It’s kind of dark but not that much darker than Earth. It’s far but not that far. Its day is almost the same length as ours, which is nice for us and hugely helpful for growing Earthly vegetation. Its surface gravity isn’t crazy low or crazy high (it’s around a third of Earth’s). It has a ton of (frozen) water and a decent amount of CO2, which are critical for early attempts at living there and hugely helpful for future attempts to “terraform” the planet into a place more livable for humans. All things considered, we’re very lucky to have an option as good as Mars—in most other solar systems, we probably wouldn’t.

Why 1,000,000 people?

Because Elon thinks that’s a rough estimate for the number of people you’d need to have on Mars in order for the Mars civilization to be “self-sustaining”—with self-sustaining defined by Elon as: “Even if the spaceships from Earth permanently stop coming, the colony doesn’t eventually die out—which requires a huge industrial base, and a much harder industrial base to create than being on Earth.”

In other words, if hard drive #2 relies on hard drive #1 in order to stay working, then your photo album isn’t really backed up, is it? The whole point of hard drive #2 is to save the day if hard drive #1 permanently crashes.

And while the Earth hard drive could “crash” for many exciting reasons—an asteroid hits us, AI kills us, Trump kills us, ISIS creates some upsetting biological weapon, etc.—Elon also warns about the less dramatic possibility that the Earth ships stop coming simply because Earth civilization stops having the capability to send them:

The spaceships from Earth could stop coming for other reasons—it could be WWIII, it could be that Earth becomes a religious state, it could be some gradual decline where Earth civilization just sinks under its own weight. At one point the Egyptians were able to build pyramids, and then they forgot how to do that. And then they forgot how to read hieroglyphics, until the Rosetta Stone. Rome as well—they had indoor plumbing, they had advanced aqueducts, and then that fell apart. China at one point had the world’s biggest fleet of sailing ships and they were sailing as far as Africa, then some crazy emperor came along and decided that was bad and had them all burnt. So you just don’t know what’s gonna happen. The key threshold to pass is the number of people and tons of cargo required to make things self-sustaining. And that’s probably something like a million people and probably something like 10-100 million tons of cargo.

In other words, let’s not wait on this.

Great, but how the hell do you bring 1,000,000 people to Mars?

You make this green part exist:

Blue circle: People who can afford to go to Mars. Yellow circle: People who want to go to Mars. Green intersection: At least a million people

It’s kind of simple. If we get to a point where there are a million people on Earth who both want to go to Mars and can afford to go to Mars, there will be a million people on Mars.

Unfortunately, right now the yellow circle is tiny and the blue circle doesn’t exist.

Elon thinks—and I kind of do too—that if the blue circle can get big enough, the yellow circle will take care of itself. If Mars is affordable and safe and you know you’ll be able to come back, a lot of people will want to go.

The hard part is the blue circle. Here’s the issue:

Last time the US Congress checked with NASA, the cost to send a five-person crew to Mars was $50 billion. $10 billion a person. Elon thinks that to make the blue circle sufficiently large, it needs to cost $500,000 a person. 1/20,000 of the current cost.

1/20,000.

That’s like looking at the car industry and saying, “Right now a new Honda costs around $20,000. To make this a viable industry, we need to get the cost of a new car down to $1.”

So what the hell?

Here’s the hell:

Imagine if the way planes worked was that they took off, flew to their destination, but then instead of landing, all the passengers parachuted down to the ground and then the plane landed by smashing into the ocean and blowing up. So every plane flew exactly once, and to have a new flight happen, you’d have to build another plane.

A plane ticket would cost $1.5 million.

Space travel is currently so expensive mostly because we land rockets by crashing them into the ocean (or incinerating them in the atmosphere).

When Elon started SpaceX, he was determined to fix this problem. It was a tall order, given that no one had ever done it before—including nations like the US and Russia who had spent billions trying. But SpaceX puzzled away at the problem year after year, and after trying and failing a bunch of times, in late 2015, they nailed it:

Then they nailed it again. And again. And again. Now they nail it more often than not. Here’s a daytime view of a recent landing:

Soon, for the first time, a previously used-and-landed, flight-tested Falcon 9 will carry out a new mission for SpaceX, officially making SpaceX rockets “reusable.”

To fly a mission on a used rocket, you only need to pay for propellant (fuel and liquid oxygen) and a bit of routine maintenance. This cuts the price of space travel down by 100 or even 1,000 times.

That leaves us with somewhere between 19/20 and 199/200 of the cost left to cut. Part of that will happen when SpaceX takes 100 or more people to Mars at a time, instead of five (the number Congress asked NASA about). The rest of it is taken care of by a few simple innovations, like refueling the spaceships in orbit (which lowers the cost by 5-10x) and manufacturing propellant on Mars so you don’t have to carry your return propellant with you (which lowers the cost by another 5-10x). More on those things later.

Suddenly, not only can the price get down to $500,000/ticket, it can probably go even lower (Elon thinks it could eventually cost under $100,000/person). You may not have noticed it yet, but SpaceX’s innovations are in the process of creating a total revolution in the cost of space travel—a change that will open doors we can’t imagine being open today. And when that revolution goes far enough, SpaceX’s vision of putting 1,000,000 people on Mars really—actually—seriously—may happen.

We’re going to Mars. And this week, SpaceX showed us the thing that’s gonna take us there.

The Rocket

“It’s so mind-blowing. It blows my mind, and I see it every week.”

Elon’s pumped. And when you learn about the big fucking rocket he’s building, you’ll understand why.

First, let’s absorb the challenge at hand. It’s often said that space is hard. To this day, only a few hundred people have been in space, only a few countries have the ability to launch something into space, and the history of human space travel is littered with tragic launch failures. Firing something super heavy and delicate and full of explosive liquid up through the atmosphere without anything going wrong is incredibly hard.

But when we talk about humans going into space, we’re talking mostly about humans going into Low Earth Orbit, a layer of space between 100 and 1,200 miles above the ground—and normally, they’re headed only 250 miles up to the International Space Station. The only time humans have gone farther were the small handful of Americans who made it out to the moon in the 1960s, traveling about 250,000 miles away.

When Earth and Mars are at their closest, Mars is somewhere between 34 and 60 million miles away—about 200 times farther away than the moon and about 200,000 times farther away than the ISS.

The moon is just over one light second away.

distance diagram of Earth and the moon with a bar representing 1 light second that nearly reaches the moon

Mars is more than three light minutes away.

Mars is far.

Elon likes to compare the Earth-to-Mars trip to crossing the Atlantic Ocean, noting that using that scale, going to the moon would only be crossing the English Channel (and going to the ISS would be going to a dock 117 feet off the shore). Continuing with that comparison, he says, “A rocket made to go to Low Earth Orbit or even the moon is basically like a coastal fishing vessel, compared to a colonial transport system that is trying to go 1,000 times further.”

On top of that, it might be worth it to take only a few humans or a single satellite up into Low Earth Orbit—but if you’re going all the way to Mars, you want to take a lot more than that. So you have to take much more mass, much further. Multiplying the distance factor by the payload factor, Elon explains that a Mars transport system “is like literally a million times more capable than what the current world launch system can do. It has to be.”

It also has to be incredibly advanced. Elon says, “It’s not just bigger, it needs to be more efficient. There’s a false dichotomy when it comes to rockets of ‘small and complex’ or ‘big and dumb.’ People talk about the ‘big dumb booster’—that won’t work. You need a big smart booster. If you want to build a Mars colony, you have no choice— you have to make it big and efficient.”

So that’s all you have to do—build a rocket that’s a million times more capable than today’s best rockets but who’s also efficient and smart and great in bed.

SpaceX is building it. Meet the Big Fucking Rocket.1

spacex mars rocket

Hard to quite understand the bigness from that picture. So let’s add in some scale:

spacex mars rocket with house and person drawn to scale

Or how about this?

spacex mars rocket shown over a football field for scale

It would barely fit diagonally across a football field without going into the stands.

There’s also this:

spacex mars rocket in skyline for scale

It’s a skyscraper. Or as Elon puts it, “by far the biggest flying object ever.”

In yesterday’s presentation, Elon explained that this isn’t a first crack at how it might look, or an artist’s impression of how it might look—it’s how it’s going to look. This is the thing they’re building.

Unfortunately, SpaceX seems to be going through an existential crisis when it comes to naming this thing—first it was the Mars Colonial Transporter, then (because it can go way past Mars) it was renamed the Interplanetary Transport System, then yesterday in the presentation, Elon said they haven’t actually settled on a name yet but that the specific spaceship that makes the maiden voyage to Mars might be called Heart of Gold1—so no one knows what to call it.

Which is why—until I hear otherwise—I’ll be calling it something I once heard Elon describe it as in an interview: the Big Fucking Rocket (BFR).

The Big Fucking Rocket is fucking big. At 400 feet tall, it’s the height of a 40-story skyscraper. At 40 feet in diameter, a school bus could fit entirely underneath its footprint. It’s more than three times the mass and generates over three times the thrust of the gargantuan Saturn V—the rocket used in the Apollo mission—which currently stands as by far the biggest rocket humanity has made.

Here’s how it stacks up next to a bunch of other rockets in size:

rocket-lineup

The difference is even more extreme when you compare the rockets by how many kilograms of payload (i.e. cargo and/or people) they can each take to orbit:

rocket-lineup-2

For comparison, SpaceX’s badass Falcon 9 rocket will be able to take about 4 tons of payload to Mars, and the Falcon Heavy—which is about to be today’s most powerful rocket—will be able to take about 13 tons to Mars. Elon believes the BFR will be able to take a few hundred tons of payload to Mars at first and eventually be able to take 1,000 tons. The absurdity of that statistic—that the behemoth Falcon Heavy can only manage a little over 1% of the BFR’s ultimate Mars payload—is pretty hard to absorb.

Now, to be clear—what I’ve been calling the Big Fucking Rocket this whole time is actually two things: a Big Fucking Spaceship sitting on top of a Big Fucking Booster.

diagram of spacex mars rocket. spaceship: crew cabin, cargo cabin, liquid oxygen tank, methane fuel tank, 9 Raptor engines. booster: liquid oxygen tank, methane fuel tank, 42 Raptor engines

The Big Fucking Booster

Let’s start by talking about the booster. The 25-story-high booster—AKA the actual rocket of the BFR—is what Elon calls “quite a beast.” It’s the biggest booster of all time—by far. By physical size, definitely, but even more so by thrust.

In the SpaceX post, I talked about the Falcon 9’s nine Merlin engines, and how each one was powerful enough to lift a stack of 40 cars up into the sky—in total, that meant the Falcon 9 set of engines could lift 360 cars. The Falcon Heavy, with its 27 Merlin engines, could lift a stack of over 1,000 cars up past the clouds.2

The Big Fucking Booster sits atop a different kind of engine: the Raptor.

spacex raptor engine

The Raptor engine looks a lot like a Merlin, with one key difference—by significantly increasing the pressure, SpaceX has made the Raptor over three times more powerful than a Merlin.

A single Raptor engine produces 310 tons of thrust—enough to lift 310 tons, or a stack of 172 cars, or an entire Boeing 747 airplane, into the sky. That’s what one Raptor can do.3

And the BFB has 42 of them.4

view of 42 Raptor engines

All together, that’s an unheard of 13,033 tons of thrust, enough to push more than 7,000 cars—or 50 large airplanes—up to space.

The Big Fucking Spaceship

So then there’s the spacecraft—which SpaceX calls the Interplanetary Spaceship, and which I’m going to keep calling the Big Fucking Spaceship because it’s more fun. The BFS is the big cool-looking thing on top of the BFB (in case you’re getting Big Fucking Confused—the Big Fucking Spaceship (BFS) on top of the Big Fucking Booster (BFB) together make what I’ve been calling the Big Fucking Rocket (BFR)). The BFS is what will take the people and cargo to Mars. It’s also what will launch, on its own, off Mars and return to Earth with people who want to come back.

The BFS is itself the size of a tall, 16-story building, and is 55 feet wide at its thickest point. In addition to hundreds, and eventually a thousand tons of cargo, the BFS will be able to carry as many as 100 people at the beginning, and Elon believes that number could grow to 200 and even above 300 people over time—like a cruise ship.

With nine Raptor engines, it’ll have more liftoff thrust on its own than any of today’s rockets—including next year’s Falcon Heavy. For a second-stage, cargo-carrying spacecraft to pack more thrust than even the most powerful first-stage rockets is outrageous.

Here’s a cross-section up close:

cross section of spacex mars spacecraft

I asked Elon what it’ll be like to ride in it. He said, “Well, you’d be in a giant spaceship in microgravity.5 I mean, it would be pretty fun. You’d be floating around.”

Good point.

In the presentation Q&A, he added: “It has to be really fun and exciting, it can’t feel cramped or boring. The crew compartment is set up so that you can do zero-g games, you can float around, there will be movies, lecture halls, cabins, a restaurant—it’ll be really fun to go.”

Um, yeah, get me on that shit now. A zero gravity cruise ship. With this view:

observatory_f_hd_3-1

And if you were to go, here’s how the whole thing would work:

1) Get on the ship. The BFR will be taking off from pad 39A at Cape Canaveral, Florida—the same pad that the Apollo astronauts left from. This is because that pad was built to be absurdly large since they didn’t know yet how big a rocket they’d be using. When you get there, you head up the tower and across the bridge into the Big Fucking Spaceship.

air-bridge

2) Take off. You strap in, and the BFR lifts off. After a few minutes, the first-stage BFB separates and heads back down to Earth. The BFS that you’re in continues onward and settles into Earth’s orbit.

29937258946_8345b8ae6e_o

3) Refuel in orbit. After landing back on Earth, the BFB is capped with a new BFS—this one full of propellant (liquid oxygen and methane).6 It lifts off again and pings the propellant-filled spaceship into orbit, where it rendezvouses7 with your spaceship. The two connect like two orcas holding hands as the propellant is transferred.

29343821794_9e05bfd6d7_h

This happens a few more times until your spaceship is entirely refueled.8 This process is critical A) for lowering the cost of the trip, and B) for making the trip much faster. People have always thought a journey to Mars would take six or nine months, but the BFS will get there in three.

4) Head to Mars. Three months of fun times in microgravity and getting really sick of the other people on the ship.9 During the journey, the spaceship steers using cold gas thrusters, powered by huge solar arrays:

29343822854_ec6f4ffad1_h

5) Enter the Mars atmosphere. Time for the heat shield to be in the shit:

29343824424_87236132a0_h

6) Land on Mars. Upright, the same way the first stage lands on Earth.

7) Live on Mars for a while doing god knows what. If it’s early on in the colonization process, you’re probably there to work and help build up the initial industries. Later on, it could be anything—research, entrepreneurship, or just simply adventure.

8) Make propellant on Mars. This will be one of the key early industries to set up on Mars. Propellant consists of liquid oxygen (O2) and methane (CH4), which are both conveniently easy to make from the massive quantities of H2O (ice) and CO2 (the main gas in the Martian atmosphere) already sitting on Mars. They’ll use this propellant to load up the spaceship you came there on in preparation for its voyage back to Earth. Doing this spares the massive expense of having to carry propellant all the way from Earth for the return trip.

9) Either stay forever or come back. If you come back, you’ll do so by boarding one of the BFS’s that came over in the last batch.

10) Land vertically on Earth. Just like you did on Mars. The spaceship will go through routine maintenance in preparation to head back to Mars two years later.

11) Be that insufferable person who can’t be part of any conversation without figuring out some way to bring up your time on Mars.

Mission complete.

This kind-of-confusing diagram sums it up:

diagram

And this video sums it up very deliciously:

So that’s the deal with the Big Fucking Rocket and how it’ll all work.10

Now let’s talk about how this all might play out.

The Plan

Back to reality. So how do we get from, “there’s this rad potential rocket that might be ready to launch in five years” to “we’re a thriving multi-planetary civilization with a million people on Mars”?

10,000 flights. That’s how many BFS trips to Mars Elon thinks it’ll take to bring the Mars population to a million.

Why 10,000? Because there will be at least 100 people on most trips, and that number will go up over time—but there will also be some people coming back from Mars each time other people go. In the lower part of each BFS will be a huge cargo compartment. Elon thinks we’ll need to get at least 10 million tons of cargo to Mars for the million-person colony to become self-sustaining, which will happen in a little over 10,000 flights if SpaceX can get the cargo payload capacity up to 1,000 tons relatively quickly, as they hope to.

And when will these 10,000 trips start?

Well let’s take a look at the Mars-Earth Synodic calendar—which deals with the dates when Earth and Mars are closest to each other (called a “Mars opposition”). Earth’s orbit is smaller than Mars’s, so Earth goes around the sun quicker—so much so that every 26 months, Earth laps Mars and they’re briefly next to each other. That’s the one time when Earth-Mars transfers can happen.

We’re currently pretty close to Mars, since the last Mars opposition happened on May 22, 2016. That’s why, if you happen to be an “oh shit there’s a way-too-bright star let me take out my Sky Guide app and figure out which planet that is and then tell everyone I’m with and find that, yet again, no one cares, because everyone is a horrible person” nerd like me, you know that all summer, Mars has been super prominent and bright in our night sky.11 A year from now, Mars will be on the other side of the sun from us, and we won’t see it in our night sky at all.

The 2016 Earth-Mars opposition is also a special one, because it’s the last time it’ll happen without anybody talking about it.

Why? Because starting with the next one in July of 2018, SpaceX will start sending stuff to Mars each time there’s an opposition, and this will become increasingly big news each time. Here’s the tentative schedule, if everything goes perfectly to plan:

Upcoming Mars Oppositions – and what SpaceX is planning for each

July, 2018: Send a Dragon spacecraft (the Falcon 9’s SUV-size spacecraft) to Mars with cargo

October, 2020: Send multiple Dragons with more cargo

December, 2022: Maiden BFS voyage to Mars. Carrying only cargo. This is the spaceship Elon wants to call Heart of Gold.

January, 2025: First people-carrying BFS voyage to Mars.

Let’s all go back and read that last line again.

January, 2025: First people-carrying BFS voyage to Mars.

Did you catch that?

If things go to plan, the Neil Armstrong of Mars will touch down about eight years from now.

And zero people are talking about it.

But they will be. The hype will start a couple years from now when the Dragons make their Mars trips, and it’ll kick into high gear in 2022 when the Big Fucking Spaceship finally launches and heads to Mars and lands there. Everyone will be talking about this.

And the buzz will just accelerate from there as the first group of BFS astronauts are announced and become household names, admired for their bravery, because everyone will know there’s a reasonable chance something goes wrong and they don’t make it back alive. Then, in 2024 they’ll take off on a three-month trip that’ll be front-page news every day. When they land, everyone on Earth will be watching. It’ll be 1969 all over again.

This is a thing that’s happening.

Elon doesn’t like when people ask him about this first voyage and the Neil Armstrong of Mars. He says that it’s not about humanity putting a new multi-planetary feather in its cap, and he’s quick to point out, “putting people on the moon was super exciting—but where’s our moon base?” In other words, having humanity give Mars a high five for bragging rights is not what matters—what matters is carrying out the full vision of actually creating a full, self-sustaining civilization on Mars.

And yeah, sure, fine. But I’m excited for 2025. It’s gonna be so fun.

Anyway, so then the next Mars opposition will roll around in 2027. This time, if everything stays on track, multiple BFS’s will make the trek to Mars, carrying more people than were in the original group in 2025. And the spaceship that went over in 2025—the space Mayflowerwill make its return trip to Earth, carrying some of the first group of Mars pioneers back home. They’ll return to massive celebration as international heroes, and the legendary spaceship will head off to enjoy its life in the Air and Space Museum.

Meanwhile, we’ll all be glued to the TV12 as the group of BFS’s arrive on Mars, where the people in them will continue the grueling work started by the 2025 group. The early colonists will have a hard job like early colonists always do—and this will be extra hard. Not only will they have to truly start from scratch—digging mines and quarries and refineries, constructing the first underground village habitat with the first Martian hospitals and schools and greenhouse farms, laying down a giant plumbing system to pump water into the village, building that first rocket propellant plant—but they’ll have to do all of this in a place where they can’t go outside without a spacesuit on, and where everyone and everything they’ve ever known is on a pale blue dot in the night sky.

It’ll be hard, but for the explorers of our world the payoff may be worth it. Elon says: “You can go anywhere on Earth in 24 hours. There’s no physical frontier on Earth anymore. Now, space is that frontier, so it’ll appeal to anyone with that exploratory spirit.”

In April of 2029, SpaceX will send an even larger group of spacecraft, people, and cargo to Mars. This time, it’ll probably get less attention. By 2029, we’ll probably be getting used to the idea that there are people on Mars and that every 26 months, a great two-way migration occurs.

The growing Mars colony will continue to entice the adventurers—those who read about the great sailing exhibitions of the 15th and 16th centuries and yearn to be there. When I asked Elon about how the small colony will grow and evolve, he said: “Think of the Mars colony as an organism that starts off as a zygote, and then becomes multi-cellular, and then gets organ differentiation—so it doesn’t look exactly the same all the way along, any more than the first settlement in Jamestown wasn’t representative of the United States today. It’ll be the same with Mars—Mars will be the new New World.”

The 2031 and 2033 and 2035 oppositions will bring substantially more people to the new New World. By this point, the budding Martian city will be a part of our lives. We’ll follow the Twitter feeds of some of our favorite journalists on Mars to keep up with what’s happening there. We’ll all get hooked on Mars’s first hit reality shows. And some of us will start thinking, “Should I sign up to go to Mars one of these years before I get too old?”

By 2050, there will be over a hundred thousand people on Mars. The company your son works for might have a branch there, and he’ll be saying goodbye to a couple co-workers who are about to head to the planet for a 52-month stint. He tells you that he doesn’t want to go because he doesn’t want to take his ninth-grade daughter away from her life and her friends. But he says she’s applying to a program that would bring her to Mars from the ages of 17 to 23 for an urban planning degree. You worry, even though you know it’s irrational. It’s just that you remember the days when going to Mars was risky and dangerous, and some part of you is still uncomfortable with it. And what if she decides not to come back?

By 2065, the early days of Mars seem primitive. During the first few Mars migrations, only a few spaceships made the trip with only 100 people in each, it was prohibitively expensive to go, it took three months to get there, and there were only a few very grueling industries on Mars to work in.

In 2065, every Mars opposition sees over 1,000 ships make the trip, each carrying over 500 people and a couple thousand tons of cargo. Half a million people make the journey every two years, and about 50,000 less than that come back, because Earth-to-Mars migration capacity grows a little bit each time as more ships are built. The trip, which now takes only 30 days, costs only $60,000 (in 2016 dollars)—and most people just pay off the ticket price with their well-paying job on Mars (labor is in high demand as the early Mars cities continue to expand and new cities are built).

Many people remember those early days of the Mars colony when it was all about SpaceX—funded by SpaceX or their cargo clients and driven by their ambition and their ingenuity and their guts. But now, dozens of companies specialize in Earth-Mars transit and hundreds of companies focus on development and entrepreneurship on Mars. And transit is paid for like planes and trains and buses are paid for today—by passengers buying tickets.

A decade later, the 2074 migration brings the Mars population above a million people. Small celebrations break out around both worlds, as a long-awaited landmark is achieved. Most people though, don’t even notice.

___________

Everything I just said was based on things Elon said on my phone call with him. Some of it was numbers he said directly—like the last paragraph, which came from him saying, “I’m hopeful that we can get to a million roughly 50 years after the start.” Other times it was me extrapolating a possible future, given the predictions I heard from him. It’s all based in reality. At least, it’s based in Elon Musk’s best crack at reality. He was very careful to qualify everything that sounded like a prediction or a projection with, “This is what might happen if things go well—but there’s no way to know, and many things could go wrong along the way.” He emphasized that “it’s not that SpaceX has all the answers and we’ve got it covered or anything like that—it’s that we want to show that it’s possible. But it’s far from a given.” As for things that could go wrong, he listed off a few (like World War III), and one of his biggest concerns is that if he somehow dies young, SpaceX could be taken over by someone who wants to milk the company for profit instead of staying single-mindedly focused on the Mars civilization mission.

But if SpaceX can manage to get this thing started, Elon thinks it could be not just a big deal in itself, it could jumpstart a slew of new possibilities for humanity. He explains:

The big picture isn’t just to back up the hard drive but to really change humanity into a multi-planetary species. Essentially what we’re saying is we’re establishing a regular cargo route to Mars. With the economic forcing function of interplanetary commerce, there will be the resources and the incentive to massively improve space transport technology, and I think then things really go to a whole new level.

What I’m describing may sound really crazy, but it actually will be a small fraction of what is ultimately done, as long as we become a two-planet civilization. Look at shipping technology in Europe. When all you had to do was cross the Mediterranean, the ships were pretty lame—they couldn’t cross the Atlantic. So commerce basically had short-range vessels. Without the forcing function, shipping technology didn’t improve that much—you could do the same things with ships, pretty much, around the time of Julius Caesar as you could around the time of Columbus. 1,500 years later, you could still just cross the Mediterranean. But as soon as there was a reason to cross the Atlantic, shipping technology improved dramatically. There needed to be the American colonies in order for that to happen.

The people at SpaceX believe that once we’re on Mars, the rest of the Solar System becomes accessible as well. That’s why they didn’t just create images of their Big Fucking Rocket standing proudly on Mars. They showed it flying by Jupiter.

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And Saturn.

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And bringing human explorers to faraway moons.

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They’re planning for a time when any person can go anywhere they want in our vast Solar System—a new golden age for exploration, with uncharted physical frontiers in every direction.

Buy the PDF

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If you’d like to support Wait But Why, here’s our Patreon.

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Here’s the whole WBW Elon Musk series:

Part 1, on Elon: Elon Musk: The World’s Raddest Man
Part 2, on Tesla: How Tesla Will Change the World

Part 3, on SpaceX: How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars
Part 4, on the thing that makes Elon so effective: The Chef and the Cook: Musk’s Secret Sauce

Extra Post #1: The Deal With Solar City
Extra Post #2: The Deal With the Hyperloop


Six other Wait But Why explainers:

The American Presidents—Washington to Lincoln

From Muhammad to ISIS: Iraq’s Full Story

The AI Revolution: Road to Superintelligence

The Fermi Paradox: Where are all the aliens?

How Cryonics Works (and Why it Makes Sense)

How to Name a Baby


  1. This is a Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy reference. In the book, Heart of Gold was “the first spacecraft to make use of the Infinite Improbability.” Elon likes the name because he thinks SpaceX’s path was highly improbable.

  2. To be clear, payload is what the rocket can actually bring to space. Thrust is what the engines can push to space, which has to include both the entire BFR and its contained payload. Almost all of a rocket’s thrust is used to lift the rocket itself, with only a small fraction of it allotted for the payload. When I talk about thrust in these posts and say how many cars a set of engines could push to space, I’m talking about a hypothetical scenario in which there is no rocket, just the rocket’s engines with a platform on top of them and cars stacked on top of the platform.

  3. Here’s a video of Raptor’s first test firing, which happened a few days ago. It would be so unfun to put your hand through that column of flame.

  4. I asked Elon why there were 42 smaller-sized engines instead of a smaller number of huge ones, and he said that they had imagined larger engines at one point but that “optimization seems to call for more small engines, not fewer big engines.” I can’t explain more than that because I don’t get it.

  5. We often think of floating astronauts as being in “zero gravity.” In fact, they’re very much inside of the Earth’s gravity well when they’re floating—they’re just orbiting around the Earth so fast that they’re in constant free fall. The effect is the same—they float—but since they’re not actually in zero gravity, we call it microgravity.

  6. The methane part of that is a big innovation. Other rockets, including the Falcons, use kerosene as the primary fuel—but for a bunch of reasons, methane seems to make more sense for a Mars trip.

  7. Upsettingly-spelled word.

  8. Elon says that this is the plan if the refueling process is quick, like a couple weeks or less. If it takes a lot longer, then the spacecraft will be launched first without people, and then whenever it’s all refueled and ready to go, a spacecraft carrying just people will be launched and it will deliver the crew to the spacecraft for an Earth orbit rendezvous.

  9. People like to bring up the dangers of space radiation during this time. Elon thinks the dangers are overstated, and that with proper precautions (like a protective layer of water around the crew cabin), the radiation harm to a crew member would be similar to the damage to your body if you were to become a smoker during those three months and then stop. Not ideal, but not too big a deal.

  10. In the presentation, Elon went off on a tangent at one point that delighted me. He talked about the possibility of the BFR’s spaceship doubling as a super-fast way to transport stuff or people around the Earth: “It actually has enough capability that you could maybe even go to orbit with the spaceship…and maybe there is some market for really fast transport of stuff around the world…We could transport cargo to anywhere on Earth in 45 minutes at the longest—most would be maybe 20, 25 minutes. So maybe if we had a floating platform off the coast of New York, you could go from New York to Tokyo in 25 minutes. You could cross the Atlantic in 10 minutes. Most of your time would be getting to the ship, and then it would be real quick after that. There are some intriguing possibilities there, but we’re not counting on that.” YES. Amazing glimpse of the world of the future, when someone will text you from Delhi and ask if you want to zip over from San Francisco to grab lunch, and you’ll say, “Sure, but I have a meeting in two hours, so I can’t stay long.” Except you won’t, because you’ll just meet your friend virtually and it’ll feel exactly how it would to be there in person. So there goes that.

  11. Right next to Mars all summer has been a pretty bright Saturn—something I’ve also told a bunch of people who don’t care.

  12. or whatever 2027 humans are glued to when they’re glued to something


  1. All images are from spacex.com, unless they have “waitbutwhy.com” written at the bottom, in which case they were made by me.

The post SpaceX’s Big Fucking Rocket – The Full Story appeared first on Wait But Why.

  •  

The Second Presidential Debate

In case you missed it, I took the time to transcribe the entire second presidential debate. Here’s what happened:

Martha Raddatz: Hi I’m Martha.

Anderson Cooper: And I’m Anderson. And we’ll be your moderators tonight.

Martha: We’d like to remind all audience members that they’re props more than anything and should stay silent through the debate. The format of the debate will be a series of questions from members of the audience. We’ll start with a woman named Patrice Brock.

Audience Question: Thank you and good evening. The last presidential debate could have been rated as MA—mature audiences—per TV parental guidelines. Knowing that educators assign viewing the presidential debates as students’ homework, do you feel that you are modeling appropriate and positive behavior for today’s youth?

Clinton: I want to do all kinds of things. I want to do good things. There’s nothing we can’t do together, you and me Patrice. I want to work with people of all ethnicities. I want to heal the country. Make it a better place. For you and for me and the entire human race. And our children. And grandchildren.

Trump: This country’s going to shit. Healthcare costs are going up. We made Iran great again. We get killed on trade—an $800 billion deficit last year. We’re gonna make great trade deals. We’re gonna bring back law and order. Did you hear about those policemen that were shot today? We need justice. I want to fix the blacks in the cities. I want to fix the Latinos, Hispanics, etc. I want to make them great again. Make America great again.

Anderson Cooper: Neither of you remotely answered the question, whatsoever. You literally both ignored Patrice. Anyway, I also don’t care about Patrice. Let’s talk about the tapes. Donald, you talked about kissing women without consent. Grabbing them by the pussy. That’s really very much definitely sexual assault. You bragged about sexually assaulting women. This is a real thing that happened. It is a thing that’s real.

Trump: Wrong. I don’t think you understand what sexual assault is. Grabbing women by the pussy is locker room talk. Assaulting women is grabbing them by the pussy. I’m sorry I grabbed women by the pussy. I never did that. And how can you say that’s worse than ISIS? ISIS is beheading thousands of people. How can you compare me to ISIS? They drown people in steel cages. I’ve never done that once. How dare you Anderson. We’ll see tomorrow what the American people have to say about you saying that ISIS isn’t a big deal. What do you think our enemies are saying when they see what’s going on here. Yes, it was locker room talk. Yes, I hate it. I have advanced strategies for ISIS. I will defeat ISIS.

Anderson:

Trump:

Anderson: Okay, but do you assault women?

Trump: Nobody has more respect for women than I do. Nobody. Not Mister Rogers. Not Susan B. Anthony. No one. Moving on a married woman is a sign of respect. I’m what every parent hopes their daughter marries. All women respect me.

Anderson: But like literally—do you assault women?

Trump: Only with my respect. We’re gonna build a wall. We’re gonna have borders. People are pouring into our country from the Middle East to grab American women by the pussy. We’re gonna make America safe again. We’re gonna make America great again. We’re gonna make America safe again. We’re gonna make America wealthy again. China.

Anderson: Secretary Clinton, would you like to respond?

Clinton: Reagan. Bush. Eisenhower. Did they grab women by the arm? Yes. By the hand? Probably. Around the shoulder? Sure. But by the pussy? I don’t think so. Donald Trump is a bad man. He’s an everything-ist. He’s Matt Damon in School Ties. He’s the uncle in The Long Walk Home. He’s the mean slave owner in 12 Years a Slave. He’s the main German guy in Die Hard. He’s the woman in The Grudge. He’s Bluto. He’s Jafar. He’s the Joker. He’s a white walker. He’s a death eater. He’s a zombie. He’s a ghost. I, on the other hand, want to form one of those huge circles of different colored people that stretches all the way around the Earth where everyone’s holding hands. Can you paint with all the colors of the wind?

Trump: 30 years. 30 years this lady’s running the country and never once have I, nor has anyone else, been part of a circle of different colored people that stretches all the way around the Earth where everyone’s holding hands. 30 years of this fucking lady and never once did she paint anything with paint, let alone the colors of the wind.

Martha: Okay but back to your locker room assault. You’ve said that this campaign has changed you—that though being a clear predator in that video at the age of 59, you’ve now become good. Is that really true?

Trump: Martha—I don’t know how much clearer I can make this. I told detailed assault stories that included specific dates, names, and body parts. That’s just classic locker room talk. Every guy talks to other guys about detailed stories of his previous assaults that include specific dates, names, and body parts. You don’t know this because you’re not there—but whenever guys are alone, they talk about their previous assaults. That doesn’t mean they assaulted anyone. Unless they’re Bill Clinton. Bill Clinton is a bad fucking dude. Bill Clinton told me about when he held a Taco Bell employee down by the neck in the restaurant’s utilities closet and had intercourse with her. Bill Clinton told me about having a foursome with Chelsea’s three best friends while Chelsea was sleeping upstairs. Hillary missed it because she was busy laughing at a 12-year-old rape victim who by coincidence is sitting right over there.

Martha: Nicely done. Hillary?

Clinton: I’ll let Michelle Obama do the talking here. She said, “When someone talks about that time when your husband held a Taco Bell employee down by the neck in the restaurant’s utilities closet and had intercourse with her, you go high.” Also, you insulted a Muslim war hero’s parents and said a Latino judge was inherently biased and mocked a disabled reporter and said Obama was foreign.

Trump: The first three, sure. But you’re the one who said Obama was foreign. Also, Michelle Obama has openly said you’re the worst ever. Also, you cheated to beat Bernie Sanders. Also, you deleted 33,000 emails you sneaky fuck. And when I’m Führer, I’m hiring a special prosecutor to come after you.

Clinton: He’s lying about everything, it’s all on my website, and let’s just be happy that this loose cannon isn’t in charge of the law in this country.

Trump: Because you’d be in jail.

Audience: Oh dayome!

Anderson: We’d like to remind the audience to stop being a piece of shit.

Martha: But really, Hillary—what’s up with the emails you sneaky fuck.

Clinton: It was a mistake. I wrote 33,000 emails about Chelsea’s wedding and a yoga class, and I shouldn’t have deleted them. Now let’s get to the questions from the audience.

Trump: Of course—anything to divert from this question, you crooked shrew.

Clinton: Anything to divert from your campaign, you incompressible jizztrumpet.

Anderson: That’s enough. Now let’s resume this town hall farce with our second audience question.

Trump: Typical.

Anderson: Huh?

Trump: You never ask Hillary about her emails. You never spend time with me. You don’t care about me. This is one on three.

Anderson: No it’s not. Just a little. Next question.

Audience Question: Obamacare made things more expensive, not less. How will you bring healthcare costs down?

Trump: Well—

Anderson: No Hillary’s supposed to go first here.

Clinton: No it’s fine I’d rather go second.

Trump: No it’s fine you go first.

Clinton: No you.

Trump: No you.

Clinton: No you.

Trump: No you.

Clinton: No you.

Trump: No you.

Clinton: Obamacare is good.

Trump: Obamacare is a disaster.

Anderson: Hillary, your husband Bill also said Obamacare is a disaster.

Clinton: No he didn’t.

Trump: Bernie Sanders says Hillary has bad judgment.

Anderson: Let’s move on. Audience question.

Audience Question: I’m a Muslim. How can you help me not be hatecrimed?

Trump: Being hatecrimed is a shame. But we have a problem. Which is that you’re not telling us when the other Muslims are gonna kill us. In San Bernardino, there were Muslims that killed us and you didn’t tell us about them. If you had told us about them, we could have stopped it. I don’t think you ever told us about Orlando either, or 9/11 for that matter. I know that because if you had told us about 9/11, I’m pretty sure you’d be famous, and famous people don’t go to town hall meetings.

Clinton: You are Muslim. I am Muslim. Captain Khan, who died serving this country and who Donald hates, was Muslim.

Martha: Hey Donald, remember your Muslim ban? Let’s discuss.

Trump: I love Captain Khan. I have his name tattooed on my lower back. An American hero. Who Hillary killed by starting the Iraq War, another thing I hate.

Martha: Fuckin—dude—no. Answer the question.

Trump: Who made you so mean? Was it your parents?

Martha: Does the Muslim ban still hold?

Trump: Hillary wants to merge the US with Syria into one nation. She wants to increase the number of refugees from 10,000 to 65,000.

Martha: What the fuck Hillary?

Clinton: That picture of the dead four-year-old boy on the beach with the little sneakers.

Martha: Totes.

Clinton: Also, Donald literally wants to ban an entire major religion from entering the US. Can we just all reflect on that for a second? And also, he started the Iraq War, not me.

Trump: I was against the war in Iraq.

Clinton: No you weren’t.

Trump: Yes I was.

Clinton: No you weren’t.

Trump: Yes I was.

Clinton: No you weren’t.

Trump: Yes I was. Bernie Sanders says Hillary Clinton has bad judgment.

Martha: Okay new question. Hillary, you said in a secret speech that politicians need both a public and private position on certain issues. Is it okay for politicians to be two-faced?

Clinton: That was Abraham Lincoln, not me. More importantly, Trump is obsessed with Putin.

Trump: I’m not obsessed with Putin. I paid taxes. I took deductions. Hillary’s friends took deductions. Hillary is friends with rich people.

Anderson: The fuck? Okay well now that we’re here:

Audience Question: How will you ensure that wealthy Americans pay their fair share of taxes?

Trump: Well the first thing I’d do is (by the way one of the first provisions is (by the way you know I give up a lot when I run cause I change the tax code (by the way you know she could have done this years ago but she didn’t because her rich friends don’t want her to (30 fucking years, folks—30 years with this lady and nothing changes—nothing ever will change)))) get rid of carried interest. I’m also lowering taxes on the wealthy, and by the way Hillary is raising your taxes, which is a disaster. There’s no growth in this country. This country’s going to shit. China’s killing us.

Clinton: Literally all lies from this douche again. He will cut taxes for the super rich and raise them for the middle class.

Trump: Yeah and she’ll close corporate loopholes—as long as they’re ones her rich friends don’t use. Also, Bernie Sanders says she has bad judgment. 30 fucking years, folks, with this lady. 30—

Clinton: 30 years my dick, Donald. I’ve done 400 legislation things in 30 years.

Trump: Nah.

Martha: New question. Aleppo’s in the shit. Thoughts?

Clinton: We need to stand up to Russia and Assad and save Aleppo.

Trump: And save who in Aleppo, the rebels? They’re worse than Assad. We need to fight ISIS.

Martha: But Mr. Trump, your running mate agrees with Hillary. He even wants to use military force to stand up to Russia and Assad.

Trump: Well he’s dumb. We need to be fighting ISIS. I know more about ISIS than the generals.

Clinton: Fucking no you don’t.

Anderson: Audience question.

Audience Question: Do you believe you can be a devoted president to all the people in the US?

Trump: I want to help all Americans. The black Americans. The Latino Americanos personas. The Indian chiefs. Our cities are a disaster. Our education is a disaster. Poverty is a disaster. Natural disasters are a disaster. She said basket of deplorables.

Clinton: I want to help all Americans—the deplorables and the non-deplorables. I talked to an Ethopian kid who was scared of Trump.

Anderson: But what’s up with the deplorables thing?

Clinton: I only meant that truthfully, not publicly.

Trump: She has tremendous hate in her heart. The hate in her heart is a disaster.

Anderson: So Donald, remember when you kind of woke up in the middle of the night the other night and went on a 3am tirade attacking that random woman and telling people to watch her sex tape? What was…what was the deal with that?

Trump: That slut.

Anderson: Let’s move on to the next question, from a man named Kenneth Bone.

Audience Question: I’m Kenneth Bone. I’m Kenneth Bone and I’m wearing this sweater. And this is my mustache.

Anderson: Is that. Is that it?

Kenneth Bone: What’s your plan with energy policy?

Trump: Coal. Coal is the way of the future. China is KILLING us. China is dumping steel on us.

Clinton: China is dumping steel on your shitty face. You buy a ton of Chinese steel. Climate change is a thing. Coal is a thing. Things are things.

Martha: Okay last question, thank fucking god.

Audience Question: It sounds kind of fun and hilarious to make you two say something nice about each other. Go.

Clinton: His kids aren’t terrible people. Somehow.

Trump: The bitch can fight.

Anderson: I’d like to extend my thanks and apologies to the 790 million people who watched this. Goodnight.

___________

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If you liked this, you’ll probably also like:

Why Procrastinators Procrastinate

Why I’m Always Late

How to Pick a Life Partner

10 Odd Friendships You’re Probably a Part Of

The post The Second Presidential Debate appeared first on Wait But Why.

  •  

100 Blocks a Day

Most people sleep about seven or eight hours a night. That leaves 16 or 17 hours awake each day. Or about 1,000 minutes.

Let’s think about those 1,000 minutes as 100 10-minute blocks. That’s what you wake up with every day.

100-blocks-a-day

Throughout the day, you spend 10 minutes of your life on each block, until you eventually run out of blocks and it’s time to go to sleep.

1-block

It’s always good to step back and think about how we’re using those 100 blocks we get each day. How many of them are put towards making your future better, and how many of them are just there to be enjoyed? How many of them are spent with other people, and how many are for time by yourself? How many are used to create something, and how many are used to consume something? How many of the blocks are focused on your body, how many on your mind, and how many on neither one in particular? Which are your favorite blocks of the day, and which are your least favorite?

Imagine these blocks laid out on a grid. What if you had to label each one with a purpose?

100-blocks

You’d have to think about everything you might spend your time doing in the context of its worth in blocks. Cooking dinner requires three blocks, while ordering in requires zero—is cooking dinner worth three blocks to you? Is 10 minutes of meditation a day important enough to dedicate a block to it? Reading 20 minutes a night allows you to read 15 additional books a year—is that worth two blocks? If your favorite recreation is playing video games, you’d have to consider the value you place on fun before deciding how many blocks it warrants. Getting a drink with a friend after work takes up about 10 blocks. How often do you want to use 10 blocks for that purpose, and on which friends? Which blocks should be treated as non-negotiable in their labeled purpose and which should be more flexible? Which blocks should be left blank, with no assigned purpose at all?

desk

Now imagine a similar grid, but one where each block is labeled exactly how you spent it yesterday.

The question to ask is: How are the two grids different from each other, and why?

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Tip: the above grid is printable if you click on it.

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While we’re all in this mood:

Your whole life on a grid.

A stark reminder.

And if you’re sitting down with a printed grid, this might be a good post to read first.

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  •  

How to Pick a Career (That Actually Fits You)

Hey readers! Quick note before we jump in:

This is a post about something I’ve been wanting to write about forever: careers. Society tells us a lot of things about what we should want in a career and what the possibilities are—which is weird because I’m pretty sure society knows very little about any of this. When it comes to careers, society is like your great uncle who traps you at holidays and goes on a 15-minute mostly incoherent unsolicited advice monologue, and you tune out almost the whole time because it’s super clear he has very little idea what he’s talking about and that everything he says is like 45 years outdated. Society is like that great uncle, and conventional wisdom is like his rant. Except in this case, instead of tuning it out, we pay rapt attention to every word, and then we make major career decisions based on what he says. Kind of a weird thing for us to do.

This post isn’t me giving you career advice really—it’s a framework that I think can help you make career decisions that actually reflect who you are, what you want, and what our rapidly changing career landscape looks like today. You’re not a pro at this, but you’re certainly more qualified to figure out what’s best for you than our collective un-self-aware great uncle. For those of you yet to start your career who aren’t sure what you want to do with their lives, or those of you currently in the middle of your career who aren’t sure you’re on the right path, I hope this post can help you press the reset button on your thought process and get some clarity.

– Tim

PDF: If you want to print this post or read it offline, the PDF is probably the way to go. You can buy it here.

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Your Life Path So Far

For most of us, childhood is kind of like a river, and we’re kind of like tadpoles.

We didn’t choose the river. We just woke up out of nowhere and found ourselves on some path set for us by our parents, by society, and by circumstances. We’re told the rules of the river and the way we should swim and what our goals should be. Our job isn’t to think about our path—it’s to succeed on the path we’ve been placed on, based on the way success has been defined for us.

For many of us—and I suspect for a large portion of Wait But Why readers—our childhood river then feeds into a pond, called college.1 We may have some say in which particular pond we landed in, but in the end, most college ponds aren’t really that different from one another.

In the pond, we have a bit more breathing room and some leeway to branch out into more specific interests. We start to ponder, looking out at the pond’s shores—out there where the real world starts and where we’ll be spending the rest of our lives. This usually brings some mixed feelings.

And then, 22 years after waking up in a rushing river, we’re kicked out of the pond and told by the world to go make something of our lives.

There are a few problems here. One is that at that moment, you’re kind of skill-less and knowledge-less and a lot of other things-less:

But before you can even address your general uselessness, there’s an even bigger issue—your pre-set path ended. Kids in school are kind of like employees of a company where someone else is the CEO. But no one is the CEO of your life in the real world, or of your career path—except you. And you’ve spent your whole life becoming a pro student, leaving you with zero experience as the CEO of anything. Up to now, you’ve only been in charge of the micro decisions—”How do I succeed at my job as a student?”—and now you’re suddenly holding the keys to the macro cockpit as well, tasked with answering stressful macro questions like “Who am I?” and “What are the important things in life?” and “What are my options for paths and which one should I choose and how do I even make a path?” When we leave school for the last time, the macro guidance we’ve become so accustomed to is suddenly whisked away from us, leaving us standing there holding our respective dicks, with no idea how to do this.

Then time happens. And we end up on a path. And that path becomes our life’s story.

At the end of our life, when we look back at how things went, we can see our life’s path in its entirety, from an aerial view.

When scientists study people on their deathbed and how they feel about their lives, they usually find that many of them feel some serious regrets. I think a lot of those regrets stem from the fact that most of us aren’t really taught about path-making in our childhoods, and most of us also don’t get much better at path-making as adults, which leaves many people looking back on a life path that didn’t really make sense, given who they are and the world they lived in.

So this is a post about path-making. Let’s take a 30-minute pre-deathbed pause to look down at the path we’re on, and ahead at where that path seems to be going, and make sure it makes sense.

The Cook and the Chef—Revisited

In the past, I’ve written about the critical distinction between “reasoning from first principles” and “reasoning by analogy”—or what I called being a “chef” vs. being a “cook.” Since writing the post, I notice this distinction everywhere, and I’ve thought about it roughly 2 million times in my own life.

The idea is that reasoning from first principles is reasoning like a scientist. You take core facts and observations and use them to puzzle together a conclusion, kind of like a chef playing around with raw ingredients to try to make them into something good. By doing this puzzling, a chef eventually writes a new recipe. The other kind of reasoning—reasoning by analogy—happens when you look at the way things are already done and you essentially copy it, with maybe a little personal tweak here and there—kind of like a cook following an already written recipe.

A pure verbatim recipe-copying cook and a pure independently inventive chef are the two extreme ends of what is, of course, a spectrum. But for any particular part of your life that involves reasoning and decision making, wherever you happen to be on the spectrum, your reasoning process can usually be boiled down to fundamentally chef-like or fundamentally cook-like. Creating vs. copying. Originality vs. conformity.

Being a chef takes a tremendous amount of time and energy—which makes sense, because you’re not trying to reinvent the wheel, you’re trying to invent it for the first time. Puzzling your way to a conclusion feels like navigating a mysterious forest while blindfolded and always involves a whole lot of failure, in the form of trial and error. Being a cook is far easier and more straightforward and less icky. In most situations, being a chef is a terrible waste of time, and comes with a high opportunity cost, since time on Earth is immensely scarce. Right now, I’m wearing J. Crew jeans and a plain t-shirt and a hoodie and Allbirds shoes, because I’m trying to conform. Throughout my life, I’ve looked around at people who seem kind of like me and I’ve bought a bunch of clothes that look like what they wear. And this makes sense—because clothes aren’t important to me, and they’re not how I choose to express my individuality. So in my case, fashion is a perfect part of life to use a reasoning shortcut and be a cook.2

But then there are those parts of life that are really really deeply important—like where you choose to live, or the kinds of friends you choose to make, or whether you want to get married and to whom, or whether you want to have kids and how you want to raise them, or how you set your lifestyle priorities.

Career-path-carving is definitely one of those really really deeply important things. Let’s spell out the obvious reasons why:

Time. For most of us, a career (including ancillary career time, like time spent commuting and thinking about your work) will eat up somewhere between 50,000 and 150,000 hours. At the moment, a long human life runs at about 750,000 hours. When you subtract childhood (~175,000 hours) and the portion of your adult life you’ll spend sleeping, eating, exercising, and otherwise taking care of the human pet you live in, along with errands and general life upkeep (~325,000 hours), you’re left with 250,000 “meaningful adult hours.”3 So a typical career will take up somewhere between 20% and 60% of your meaningful adult time—not something to be a cook about.

Quality of Life. Your career has a major effect on all the non-career hours as well. For those of us not already wealthy through past earnings, marriage, or inheritance, a career doubles as our means of support. The particulars of your career also often play a big role in determining where you live, how flexible your life is, the kinds of things you’re able to do in your free time, and sometimes even in who you end up marrying.

Impact. On top of your career being the way you spend much of your time and the means of support for the rest of your time, your career triples as your primary mode of impact-making. Every human life touches thousands of other lives in thousands of different ways, and all of those lives you alter then go on to touch thousands of lives of their own. We can’t test this, but I’m pretty sure that you can select any 80-year-old alive today, go back in time 80 years, find them as an infant, throw the infant in the trash, and then come back to the present day and find a countless number of things changed. All lives make a large impact on the world and on the future—but the kind of impact you end up making is largely within your control, depending on the values you live by and the places you direct your energy. Whatever shape your career path ends up taking, the world will be altered by it.

Identity. In our childhoods, people ask us about our career plans by asking us what we want to be when we grow up. When we grow up, we tell people about our careers by telling them what we are. We don’t say, “I practice law”—we say, “I am a lawyer.” This is probably an unhealthy way to think about careers, but the way many societies are right now, a person’s career quadruples as the person’s primary identity. Which is kind of a big thing.

So yeah—your career path isn’t like my shitty sweatshirt. It’s really really deeply important, putting it squarely in “Definitely absolutely make sure to be a chef about it” territory.

Your Career Map

Which brings us to you. I don’t know exactly what your deal is. But there’s a good chance you’re somewhere in one of the blue regions—

—which means your career path is a work in progress.4

Whether you’re yet to start your career or well into it, somewhere in the back of your mind (or maybe in the very front of it) is a “Career Plans” map.

We can group map holders into three broad categories—each of which is well-represented in the river, in the pond, standing on the shore, and at every stage of adult life.

One group of people will look at the map and see a big, stressful question mark.

These are people who feel indecisive about their career path. They’ve been told to follow their passion, but they don’t feel especially passionate about anything. They’ve been told to let their strengths guide them, but they’re not sure what they’re best at. They may have felt they had answers in the past, but they’ve changed and they’re no longer sure who they are or where they’re going.

Other people will see a nice clear arrow representing a direction they feel confident is right—but find their legs walking in a different direction. They’re living with one of the most common sources of human misery, a career path they know in their heart is wrong.

The lucky ones feel they know where they want to go and believe they’re marching in that direction.

But even these people should pause and ask themselves, “Who actually drew this arrow? Was it really me?” The answer can get confusing.

I’m pretty sure all of these people would benefit from a moment of career path reflection.

The Okay But Why Do You Think You Can Help Me With My Career Reflection You Draw Stick Figures for a Living Blue Box

Extremely fair question. One thing I always ask myself as I pick topics to write about is, “Am I qualified to write about this?” Here are the reasons I decided to take on this topic:

1) I have spent most of the last 20 years in a perpetual state of analyzing my own career path.

2) My path has taken a lot of turns—from wanting to be a movie star when I was 7 to wanting to be the president when I was 17 to wanting to write film scores when I was 22 to wanting to be an entrepreneur when I was 24 to wanting to write musicals when I was 29 to most recently wanting to be a writer-ish guy.

3) After being pretty all over the place about my career path for most of my life, I actually love my job now. That’s always subject to change, but being able to look at the decision-making processes that led me to confusing or frustrating places, side by side with the decisions that led me to a more fulfilling place, has offered me some wisdom on where people tend to go wrong.

4) On top of having my own story to look at, I’ve had a front-row seat for the stories of my dozen or so closest friends. My friends seem to share my career path obsessiveness, so between observing their paths and talking with them about those paths again and again along the way, I’ve broadened my views on the topic, which helps me to distinguish between the lessons that are my-life specific and those that are more universal.

5) Finally, this isn’t a post about which careers are better or worse than others or which career values are more or less meaningful—there are lots of social scientists and self-help authors out there with good data on that, and I’m not one of them. It’s instead a framework that I think can help a career-path reflector better see their own situation, and what really matters to them, clearly and honestly. This framework has worked really well for me, so I think it can probably be helpful for other people too.

Now that you’ve taken a fresh look at your Career Plans map, along with whatever arrow may or may not be on it, put it down and out of sight. We’ll come back to it at the end of the post. It’s time now for a deep dive—let’s think about this from scratch. From first principles.

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In the cook-chef post, I designed a simple framework for how a chef makes major career choices. At its core is a simple Venn diagram.

The first part of the diagram is the Want Box, which contains all the careers you find desirable.

The second part of the diagram is the Reality Box. The Reality Box is for the set of all careers that are realistic to potentially achieve—based on a comparison, in each case, between your level of potential in an area and the general difficulty of achieving success in that area.

The overlapping area contains your optimal career path choices—the set of arrows you should consider drawing on your Career Map. We can call it the Option Pool.

This is straightforward enough. But actually filling in these boxes accurately is way harder than it looks. For the diagram to work, it has to be as close to the truth as possible, and to get there, we have to lift up the hood of our subconscious and head down. Let’s start with the Want Box.

Deep Analysis, Part 1: Your Want Box

The hard thing about the Want Box is that you want a bunch of different things—or, rather, there are a bunch of different sides of you, and each of them wants—and fears—its own stuff. And since some motivations have conflicting interests with others, you cannot, by definition, have everything you want. Going for one thing you want means, by definition, not going for others, and sometimes, it’ll specifically mean going directly against others. The Want Box is a game of compromise.

The Yearning Octopus

To do a proper Want Box audit, you need to think about what you yearn for in a career and then unpack the shit out of it. Luckily, we have someone here who can help us. The Yearning Octopus.

We each have our own personal Yearning Octopus5 in our heads. The particulars of each person’s Yearning Octopus will vary, but people also aren’t all that different from each other, and I bet many of us feel very similar yearnings and fears (especially given that I find that Wait But Why readers tend to have a lot in common).

The first thing to think about is that there are totally distinct yearning worlds—each living on one tentacle. These tentacles often do not get along with each other.

It gets worse. Each tentacle is made up of a bunch of different individual yearnings and their accompanying fears—and these often massively conflict with each other too.

Let’s take a closer look at each tentacle to see what’s going on.

The Personal Yearnings tentacle is probably the hardest one to generalize here—it’s pretty particular to each of us. It’s a reflection of our specific personality and our values, and it bears the burden of probably the most complex and challenging human need: fulfillment. It’s also in the shit dealing with not only our current selves, but a bunch of our past selves too. The dreams of 7-year-old you and the idealized identity of 12-year-old you and the secret hopes of 17-year-old you and the evolving passions of your current self are all somewhere on the personal tentacle, each throwing their own little fit about getting what they want, and each fully ready to make you feel horrible about yourself with their disappointment and disgust if you fail them. On top of that, your fear of death sometimes emerges on the personal tentacle, all needy about you leaving your mark and achieving greatness and all that. The personal tentacle is why you don’t find very many billionaires content to spend the rest of their life sipping cocktails on the beach—it’s a highly needy tentacle.

And yet, the personal tentacle is also one that often ends up somewhat neglected. Because in many cases, it’s the ickiest set of yearnings to really go for; because the fears of this tentacle aren’t scary in an immediate way—they creep in out of the background over time; and because the personal tentacle is always at risk of getting bowled over early in your career by the powerful animal emotions of the other tentacles. This neglect can leave a person with major regrets later on once the dust settles. An unfulfilled Personal Yearnings tentacle is often the explanation, for example, behind a very successful, very unhappy person—who may believe they got successful in the wrong field.

The Social Yearnings tentacle is probably our most primitive, animal side, with its core drive stemming back to our tribal evolutionary past. On the tentacle are a number of odd creatures.

As we’ve discussed before on this blog, we all have a Social Survival Mammoth living in our heads who’s earth-shatteringly obsessed with what other people think of us. This means he craves acceptance and inclusion and being well-liked, while likewise being petrified of embarrassment, negative judgment, and disapproval. He really really really wants to be in the in-group and he really really really doesn’t want to be in the outgroup. He’s quite cute though.

Then there’s your ego, who’s a similar character but even more needy. Your ego doesn’t just want to be accepted; it wants to be admired, desired, and fawned upon—ideally, on a mass scale. More upsetting to it than being disliked is being ignored. It wants to be relevant and important and widely known.

There are other characters milling about as well. Somewhere else on the social tentacle is a little judge with a little gavel who gets very butthurt if it thinks people aren’t judging you fairly—if you’re not appropriately appreciated. It’s very important to the judge that people are aware of exactly how smart and talented you think you are. The judge is also big on holding grudges—which is the reason a lot of people are driven more than anything by a desire to show that person or those people who never believed in them.

Finally, some of us may find a loving little dog on our social tentacle who wants more than anything in the world to please its owner, and who just cannot bear the thought of disappointing them. The one problem with this adorable creature is that its owner isn’t you. It’s a person with so much psychological power over you that, if you’re not careful, you may dedicate your whole career to trying to please them and make them proud. (It’s probably a parent.)

The Lifestyle Yearnings tentacle mostly just wants Tuesday to be a good day. But like, a really pleasant, enjoyable day—with plenty of free time and self-care and relaxation and luxuries.

It’s also concerned with your life in the big picture being as great as possible—as far as your lifestyle tentacle is concerned, you should be able to do what you want to do in life, when and how you want to do it, with the people you like most. Life should be full of fun times and rich experiences, but it should also roll by smoothly, without too much hard work and as few bumps in the road as possible.

The issue is, even if you place a high priority on your lifestyle yearnings, it’s pretty difficult to keep the whole tentacle happy at the same time. The part of the tentacle that just wants to sit around and relax will hold you back from sweating to build the kind of career that offers long-term flexibility and the kind of wealth that can make life luxurious and cushy and full of toys. The part of the tentacle that only feels comfortable when the future feels predictable will reject the exact kinds of paths that may generate the long-term freedom another part of the tentacle longs for. The side of you that wants a stress-free life doesn’t get along very well with the side of you that thirsts to be hang gliding off a cliff in Namibia like Richard Branson.

The Moral Yearnings tentacle thinks the rest of the tentacles of your Yearning Octopus are a real pack of dicks—each one more self-involved and self-indulgent than the next. The parts of you on the moral tentacle look around and see a big world that needs so much fixing; they see billions of people no less worthy than you of a good life who just happened to be born into inferior circumstances; they see an uncertain future ahead that hangs in the balance between utopia and dystopia for life on Earth—a future we can actually push in the right direction if we could only get our other tentacles out of our way. While the other tentacles fantasize about what you would do with your life if you had a billion dollars in the bank, the moral tentacle fantasizes about the kind of impact you could make if you had a billion dollars to deploy.

Needless to say, the other tentacles of your Yearning Octopus find the moral tentacle to be insufferable. They also can’t begin to understand philanthropy for philanthropy’s sake—they think, “Other people aren’t me, so why would I spend my time and energy working to help them?”—but they can understand philanthropy for their own motive’s sake. While the moral and lifestyle tentacles tend to be in direct conflict, others may sometimes find common ground—the social tentacle can get very into philanthropy if it’ll happen to win you respect and admiration from a highly regarded social group, and some people’s personal tentacle may find the meaning or self-worth it so craves in a philanthropic endeavor.

That’s why, when you do something philanthropic—or anything altruistic, really—there are a few separate things going on in your head. The part of you determined to get proper public credit for the deed lives on your social tentacle; the part of you that thinks “God I’m a good person” lives on your personal tentacle; and the part of you that really loves seeing the person or group you helped be better off lives on your moral tentacle. Likewise, not doing anything for others can hurt you on multiple tentacles—the moral tentacle because it feels guilty and sad, the social tentacle because this may cause others to judge you as a selfish or greedy person, and the personal tentacle because it may lower your self-esteem.

Your Practical Yearnings tentacle thinks all of this is fine and great—but it would also like to point out that it’s March 31st and your rent is due tomorrow, and the funny thing about that is that it logged into your bank account and saw that the number of dollars in it is actually less than the number of dollars that your landlord will need from you sometime in the next 34 hours. And yeah it knows that you deposited that check on Thursday and that it’s supposed to clear tomorrow morning, but your practical tentacle also could have sworn that just last month, all the tentacles promised that they’d make some sacrifices in order to build up at least a little bank account cushion so that simply paying the rent wouldn’t have to be really fucking stressful every month. Your practical tentacle also can’t help but notice that your social tentacle offered to buy a round of drinks for all nine people you went to the bar with last Saturday so those people would think of you as a classy, generous person, and that your lifestyle tentacle chose to rent what sure seems like a pretty nice-ass apartment for someone now living check to check, and that the updates have gotten real quiet from your friend about that bagel delivery service he started six months ago that your moral tentacle happily invested $2,500 in to help it get off the ground, and oh also that meanwhile your personal tentacle has everyone sweating their dick off working at two comedy-writing internships simultaneously that somehow manage to bring in less money combined than you made dressing up as an Egyptian enchantress to wait tables at Jekyll & Hyde sophomore year of college.

At its basic level, your practical tentacle wants to make sure you can eat food and wear clothes and buy the medicine you need and not live outside. It doesn’t really care how these things happen—it just wants them to happen. But then everyone else on the octopus makes your practical tentacle’s life super hard by being fucky about things. Every time your income goes up, your lifestyle tentacle decides to raise the bar on what it wants and expects, leaving your practical tentacle continually in the shit trying to cover it all so you don’t have to run up your credit card debt. Your personal tentacle has all of these weird needs that take up a lot of time and more often than not aren’t exactly big money-makers. And while your practical tentacle would be totally down to just ask your rich uncle for money to help out, your social tentacle outlawed asking others for money because “it’s not a good look,” with your personal tentacle chiming in that “yeah, we’re better than that.”

So that’s the situation. You’ve got this Yearning Octopus in your head with five tentacles (or however many yours has), each with their own agenda, that often conflict with each other. Then there are the distinct individual yearnings on each tentacle, often in conflict amongst themselves. And if that weren’t enough, you sometimes have furious internal conflict inside a single yearning. Like when your desire to pursue your passion can’t figure out what it’s most passionate about.

Or when you want so badly to be respected, but then you remember that a career that wins the undying respect of one segment of society will always receive shrugs from other segments and even contemptuous eye rolls from other segments still.

Or when you decide to satisfy your urge to help others, before realizing that the part of you that wants to dedicate your life to helping to mitigate humanity’s greatest existential risks has palpable disdain for the part of you that would rather make a tangible positive impact on your local community—while the part of you that can’t stand the thought of the millions of today’s humans without access to clean water finds both of those other yearnings to be pretty cold and heartless.

So yeah, your Yearning Octopus is complicated. And no human in history has ever satisfied their entire octopus—that’s why you’ll never find it fully smiling. Human yearning is a game of choices and sacrifices and compromise.

Dissecting the Octopus

With that in mind, let’s return to your Want Box. When we think about our career goals and fears and hopes and dreams, our consciousness is just accessing the net output of the Yearning Octopus—which is usually made up of its loudest voices. Only by digging into our mind’s subconscious can we see what’s really going on.6

The cool thing is that we all have the ability to do that. The stuff in your subconscious is like stuff in the basement of a house. It’s not off-limits to us—it’s just in the basement. We can go look at it anytime—we just have to A) remember that the house has a basement, and B) actually spend the time and energy to go down there, even though going down there might suck.

So let’s head to the basement of your mind to look for the octopus. Unless you’re one of those people who’s really practiced at analyzing your subconscious, it might be dark in the basement, making it hard to see your octopus. The way to start turning the lights on is by identifying what your conscious mind currently knows about your yearnings and fears, and then unpacking it.

Like if there’s a certain career path that sounds fantastic to you, unpack that. Which tentacles in particular are yearning for that career—and which specific parts of those tentacles?

If you’re not currently working towards that career you supposedly yearn for, try to figure out why not. If you think it’s because you’re afraid of failing, unpack that. Fear of failure can emerge from any of the tentacles, so that’s not a specific enough analysis. You want to find the specific source of the fear. Is it a social tentacle fear of embarrassment, or of being judged by others as not that smart, or of appearing to be not that successful to your romantic interests? Is it a personal tentacle fear of damaging your own self-image—of confirming a suspicion about yourself that haunts you? Is it a lifestyle tentacle fear of having to downgrade your living situation, or of bringing stress and instability into a currently predictable life? Or maybe that fear of a living situation downgrade isn’t actually emerging from your lifestyle tentacle, but more so from your social tentacle—in other words, is it possible you’re indifferent about the apartment change itself but super concerned about the message a lifestyle downgrade sends to your friends and family? Or are there financial commitments you simply cannot back out of at the moment, and your practical tentacle is in a genuine panic about how you’ll make ends meet should this career switch take longer than expected to work out, or not work out at all? Or are a few of these combining together to generate your fear of making the leap?

Perhaps you don’t really think it’s fear of failure that’s stopping you, but something else. Maybe it’s a dread of the change in identity—both internally and externally—that inevitably accompanies a career move like this. Maybe it’s the heavy weight of inertia—an intense resistance to change—that seems to exist in and of itself and overpowers all of your other yearnings. In either case, you’d want to unpack the feeling and ask yourself exactly which tentacles are so opposed to an identity shift, or so driven by inertia.

Maybe you pine to be rich. You fantasize about a life where you make $1.2 million a year, and you feel a tremendous drive to make it happen. All five tentacles can feel a desire for wealth under certain circumstances, each for their own reasons. Unpack it.

As you unpack an inner drive to make money, maybe you discover that at its core, the drive is more for a sense of security than for vast wealth. That can be unpacked too. A yearning for security at its simplest is just your practical tentacle doing what your practical tentacle does. But maybe it’s not actually basic security you want as much as a guarantee of a certain level of fanciness demanded by your lifestyle or social tentacle. Or perhaps what you really want is a level of security so over-the-top secure it can no longer be called a security yearning—instead, it may be an impulse by the emotional well-being section of your lifestyle tentacle to alleviate a compulsive financial stress you were raised to forever feel, almost regardless of your actual financial situation.

The answers to all of these questions lie somewhere on the tentacles of your Yearning Octopus. And by asking questions like these and digging deep enough to identify the true roots of your various yearnings, you start to turn on the basement light and acquaint yourself with your octopus in all its complexity.

You’ll also come to understand which of your inner yearnings seem to speak the loudest in your mind and carry the most pull in your decision-making processes. Pretty quickly, a yearning hierarchy will begin to reveal itself. You’ll identify yearnings that speak loudly and get their way; yearnings that cry at the top of their lungs but get continually elbowed out of the way by higher-prioritized parts of the octopus; yearnings that seem resigned to their low-status positions in the hierarchy.

Searching for Imposters

We’re making good progress—but we’re just getting started. Once you have a reasonably clear picture of your Yearning Octopus, you can start doing the real work—work that takes place another level down in your subconscious, in the basement of the basement. Here, you can set up a little interrogation room and one by one, bring each yearning down into it for a cross-examination.

You’ll start by asking each yearning: how did you end up here, and why are you the way you are? Desires, beliefs, values, and fears don’t materialize out of nowhere. They’re either developed over time by our internal consciousness as observations and life experience pour in, or they’re implanted in us from the outside, by someone else. In other words, they’re the product of either you the chef or you the cook.

So the goal here in your creepy interrogation room is to tug on the faces of each of your yearnings to find out if it’s authentically you, or if it’s someone else disguised as you.

You can pull on a yearning’s face by playing the Why Game. You’ll ask your initial Why—Why is this something I want?—and get to some kind of Because. Then you’ll keep going. Why did that particular Because lead you to want what you now want? And when did that particular Because gain so much gravity with you? You’ll get to a deeper Because behind the Because. And if you continue with this, you’ll usually discover one of three things:

1) You’ll trace the Why back to its origin and reveal a long chain of authentic evolution that developed through deep independent thought. You’ll pull on their face and confirm that the skin is real.

2) You’ll trace the Why back to an original Because that someone else installed in you—I guess the only reason I actually have this value is because my mom kind of forced it on me—and you realize that you never really thought to consider whether you actually independently agree with it. You never stopped to ask yourself whether your own accumulated wisdom actually justifies the level of conviction you feel about that core belief. In a case like this, the yearning is revealed to be an imposter pretending to be an authentic yearning of yours. You pull on its face and it’s a mask that comes off, exposing the yearning’s original installer underneath.

3) You’ll trace the Why back and back and get kind of lost in a haze of “I guess I just know this because it’s true!” This could be an authentic you thing, or just another version of #2, in an instance where you can’t recall the moment this feeling was installed in you. Somewhere deep in you, you’ll have a hunch about which it is.

In a #1 scenario, you can be proud that you developed that part of you like a chef. It’s an authentic and hard-earned feeling or value.

In a #2 or maybe #3 scenario, you’ve discovered that you’ve been duped. You’ve let someone else sneak onto your Yearning Octopus while you weren’t looking. When it comes to that particular belief of yours, you’re a cook following someone else’s recipe—an obedient robot reciting desires and fears out of someone else’s brain.

There’s a chance you’re an unusually wise person whose examination reveals an octopus developed mostly by you and kept readily up to date. More likely, you’re like me and most of my friends—your interrogation room reveals some definite imposters, or at least a lot of ambiguity. Like, underneath one mask, you’ll find your mom.

You’ll pull off others to reveal the values and judgments of broader conventional wisdom, or the viewpoints of your more immediate community, or what’s considered cool by the dominant culture of your generation or the immediate culture within your closest group of friends.

Sometimes you’ll get to the end of a Why-Because pathway only to find the philosophy in a famous novel, or something a celebrity hero of yours once said in an interview, or a strong opinion one of your professors always repeated.

You might even find that some of your yearnings and fears were written by you…when you were seven years old. Like a childhood dream that was etched into the back of your consciousness as the thing you believe you really want, when you’re being truly honest.

The interrogation room probably won’t be that fun a time. But it’s time well spent—because you’re not your 7-year-old self, just like you’re not your parents or your friends or your generation or your society or your heroes or your past decisions or your recent circumstances. You’re Current-Age You—the only person, and the only version of yourself, who is actually qualified to want and not want the things you want and don’t want.

To be clear, this isn’t to say that it’s wrong to live by the words of a wise parent or a famous philosopher or friends you respect or the convictions of a younger you. Humble people are by definition influence-able—influences are an important and inevitable part of who each of us is. The key distinction is this:

Do you treat the words of your external influences as information, held and considered by an authentic inner you, that you’ve carefully decided to embrace? Or are your influences themselves actually in your brain, masquerading as inner you?

Do you want the same thing someone else you know wants because you heard them talk about it, you thought about it alongside your own life experience, and you eventually decided that, for now, you agree? Or because you heard someone talk about what they want or fear, and you thought, “I don’t know shit and that person does, so if they say X is true, I’m sure they’re right”—and then you etched those ideas into your mind, never again feeling the need to question them?

The former is what chefs do. The latter is what you do when you’re being an obedient robot. And a robot is what you become when at some point you get the idea in your head that someone else is more qualified to be you than you are.

The good news is that all humans make this mistake—and you can fix it. Just like your subconscious is right there for viewing if you want to view it—it’s also there for changing and updating and rewriting. It’s your head—you’re allowed to do with it what you want.

So it’s time for some evictions. Masked imposters have to go. Even mom and dad.

At the end of this, your octopus may look a little barren, leaving you feeling a little like you don’t know who you even are anymore. We usually think of this as a bad feeling, or even an existential crisis, but it actually means you’re doing better than most people.

The drop from naive over-confidence to wise, realistic humility never feels good, but pausing the roller coaster while it’s still on that first cliff and avoiding the pain—which turns out to be a lot of people’s move—isn’t a great strategy. Wisdom isn’t correlated with knowledge, it’s correlated with being in touch with reality—it’s not how far to the right you are on the graph, it’s how close you are to the orange line. Wisdom hurts at first, but it’s the only place where actual growth happens. The irony is that the cliff-pausers of the world like to make the wiser, braver valley-dwellers or continual-climbers feel bad about themselves—because they fundamentally don’t get how knowing yourself works. They haven’t reached that stage yet.

Getting to know your real self is super hard and never complete. But if you’ve tumbled off the cliff, you’ve gone through a key rite of passage and progress is now possible. As you climb up the orange line, you’ll slowly but surely begin to repopulate your Yearning Octopus with your real self.

At the moment, it probably won’t be obvious what those missing yearnings of yours are exactly—because they’re on an even deeper floor of your subconscious. They’re in the basement of the basement of the basement—in a place called Denial Prison.

Denial Prison

Our brain’s Denial Prison is a place most of us don’t even know is there—it’s where we put the parts of us we repress and deny.

The authentic yearnings of ours that we’re in touch with—i.e. those that proved to be authentic during interrogation—were easy parts of our true selves to find in our subconscious, lying in plain sight, right below the surface of our consciousness. Even our conscious mind knows these yearnings well, because they frequently make their way upstairs into our thoughts. These are the parts of us we have a healthy relationship with.

But then there are the parts of you that weren’t living on your octopus where they’re supposed to be—instead, you found an imposter in their place. These lost parts of you are often incredibly hard to access, because they’ve been living deep in your subconscious, on a floor so low it’s almost not there at all. Almost.

Some parts of us are banished down on basement #3 because they’re extraordinarily painful for us to acknowledge or think about. Sometimes new parts of us are born only to be immediately locked up in prison as part of a denial of our own evolution—i.e. out of stubbornness. But there are other times when a part of us is in Denial Prison because someone else locked it up down there. In the case of your yearnings, some of them will have been put there by whatever masked intruder had been taking its place. If dad has successfully convinced you that you care deeply about having a prestigious career, he probably has also convinced you that the part of you that, deep down, really wants to be a carpenter isn’t really you and isn’t what you really want. At some point during your childhood, he threw your passion for carpentry into a dark, dank Denial Prison cell.

So let’s gather your courage and head down to the basement of the basement of the basement of your mind and see what we find.

You may pass some unpleasant characters.

Leave them for another time—right now, search for locked-away career-related yearnings. Maybe you’ll find a repressed passion to teach. Or a desire to be famous that your particular tribe has shamed you out of. Or a deep love of long blocks of free, open leisure time that your hornier, greedier teenage self kicked downstairs in favor of a raging ambition.

There will be certain parts of your authentic self you won’t be able to uncover in Denial Prison—it’s pretty dark down there. But be patient—now that you’ve done your audit and cleared space for them on your octopus, they may begin to emerge.

Priority Rankings

The other part of our Yearning Octopus audit will address the hierarchy of your yearnings. Almost as important as the yearnings themselves is the priority they’re given. The hierarchy is easy to see because it’s revealed in your actions. You may like to think a desire to do something bold is high up on your hierarchy, but if you’re not currently working on something bold, it reveals that however important boldness is to you, something else—some source of fear or inertia in you—is currently being prioritized above it.

It’s important to remember that a ranking of yearnings is also a ranking of fears. The octopus contains anything that could make you want or not want to pursue a certain career, and the reverse side of each yearning is its accompanying fear of the opposite. The reverse side of your yearning to be admired is a fear of embarrassment. If you flip over your desire for self-actualization, you’ll see a fear of underachieving. The other half of your craving of self-esteem is a fear of feeling shame. If your actions don’t seem to match what you believe is the internal hierarchy of your yearnings, usually it’s because you’re forgetting to think about the role your fears are playing. What looks like a determined drive for success, for example, might actually be someone running away from a negative self-image or trying to escape feelings like envy or under-appreciation. If your actions seem beholden to yearnings that you don’t believe you actually care that much about, you’re probably not looking closely enough at your fears.

With both yearnings and fears in mind, think about what your internal hierarchy might look like, and return that same important question: “Who made this order? Was it really me?”

For example, we’re often told to “follow our passion”—this is society saying “put your passion yearnings at the top of your hierarchy.” That’s a very specific instruction. Maybe that’s the right thing for you, but it also very well might not be. It’s something you need to independently evaluate.

To get this right, let’s try to do a fresh ranking, from first principles, based on who we really are, how we’ve evolved over time, and what really matters to us most, right now.

This isn’t about which yearnings or fears have the loudest voices or which fears are most palpable—if it were, you’d be letting your impulses take the wheel of your life. The person doing the ranking is you—the little center of consciousness reading this post who can observe your octopus and look at it objectively. This involves another kind of compromise. On one side, you’ll try to tap into all the wisdom you’ve accumulated throughout your life and make active decisions about values—about what you really believe is important. On the other side, it’s about self-acceptance and self-compassion. Sometimes you’ll have strong undeniable yearnings that you’re not super proud of—whether you like it or not, those are part of you, and when you neglect them, they may cause a continual stink and make you miserable. Creating your yearning hierarchy is a give and take between what’s important and what’s you. It’s probably a good goal to give higher priority to your more noble qualities, but it’s okay to throw a bone to some of your not-so-noble sides as well—depending on where you decide to draw the line. There’s a wisdom to knowing when to accept your not-so-noble side and when to reject it entirely.

To get all of this in order, we want a good system. You can play around with what works for you—I like the idea of a shelf:

This divides things into five categories. The absolutely highest priority inner drives get to go in the extra special non-negotiable bowl. The NN bowl is for yearnings so important to you that you want to essentially guarantee that they’ll happen—at the expense of all other yearnings, if necessary. This is why so many of history’s legends were famously single-minded—they had a very intense NN bowl yearning and it led them to world fame, often at the expense of relationships, balance, and health. The bowl is small because it should be used very sparingly—if at all. Like maybe only one thing gets it. Or maybe two or three. Too many things in the NN bowl cancels out its power, making that the same as having nothing in the bowl at all.

Your group of top shelf yearnings is mostly what will drive your career choices—but top shelf placement should also be doled out sparingly (that’s why it’s not a very large shelf). Shelf placement is as much about de-prioritizing as it is about prioritizing. You’re not just choosing which parts of you are the most important to make you happy, you’re choosing which parts of you to intentionally leave wanting or even directly opposed. No matter what your hierarchy looks like, some yearnings will be left feeling very unhappy and some fears will feel like they’re being continually assaulted. This is inevitable.

That’s why most yearnings should be on the middle shelf, the bottom shelf, or the trash can. The middle shelf is good for those not-so-noble qualities in you that you decide to accept. They deserve some of your attention. And they’ll often demand it—core parts of you won’t go quietly into non-prioritization, and they sometimes can really ruin your life if they’re neglected.

Most of the rest will end up on the bottom shelf. Putting a part of you on the bottom shelf is telling it, “I know you want these things, but for now, I’ve decided other things are more important. I promise to revisit you a little later, after I’ve gotten some more information, and if I change my mind, you’ll get a shelf upgrade then.” The best way to think of the bottom shelf is this: the more yearnings you can convince to accept a bottom shelf rating, the better the chances your top shelf and NN bowl yearnings have of getting what they want. Likewise, the fewer yearnings you put on the top shelf, the more likely those on the top shelf will be to thrive. Your time and energy are severely limited, so this is a zero-sum compromise. The amateur mistake is to be too liberal with the NN bowl and top shelf and too sparing with the large bottom shelf.

Then there’s the trash can, for the drives and fears you flat-out reject—those parts of you that fundamentally violate the person your wisest self wants to be. A good amount of inner conflict emerges from people’s trash cans, and trash can control is a major component of integrity and inner strength. But like the rest of your hierarchy decisions, your criteria for what qualifies as trash should be derived from your own deep thought, not from what others tell you is and is not trash.

As you go through this difficult prioritizing process—inevitably, at times, against the screaming protests of unhappily deprioritized yearnings—remember that you’re the only wise one in the room. Yearnings and fears are impatient and bad at seeing the big picture. Even a seemingly high-minded yearning, like those on the moral tentacle, can’t understand the complete picture in the way you can. Many of the people who have done wonders to make the world better got there on a path that started with selfish motives like wealth or personal fulfillment—motives their moral tentacle probably hated at first. The octopus won’t be the wise adult in the room—that’s your job.

Finally, as we’ll discuss more later, this is not a permanent decision. It’s the opposite—it’s a rough draft written in light pencil. It’s a hypothesis that you’ll be able to test and then revise based on how actually living this hierarchy feels in practice.

Your Want Box is ready to go. Now let’s turn to your Reality Box.

Deep Analysis, Part 2: Your Reality Box

The Want Box deals with what you find desirable. The Reality Box deals with what’s possible.

But when we examined the Want Box, it became clear that it’s not necessarily based on what you actually want—it’s based on what you think you want—what you’re in the habit of wanting.

The Reality Box is the same deal. It doesn’t show you reality, it shows your best crack at what reality might be—your perception of reality.

The goal of self-reflection is to bring both of these boxes as close to accuracy as possible. We want our perceived yearnings to be a true reflection of our authentic inner selves, and we want our beliefs about what’s possible to come close to mirroring what’s actually possible. For our Want Box audit, we looked under the hood of the Want Box and found its settings—your yearnings and fears. When we open the hood of your Reality Box, we see a group of beliefs.

When it comes to your career possibilities, you’re dealing with two sets of beliefs: beliefs about the world and beliefs about your own potential. For a career option to qualify for your Reality Box, your potential in that career area has to measure up to the objective difficulty of achieving success in that area.

Us being us, we’re probably pretty bad at assessing either side of this comparison accurately.

I don’t know how you think about career path difficulty, but in my experience, people often see it like this:

There are traditional careers—stuff like medicine or law or teaching or a corporate ladder, etc.—and these careers have predictable, set paths. If you’re decently smart and work hard, you’ll end up in a successful, stable situation.

Then there are less traditional careers—the arts, entrepreneurship, non-profit work, politics, etc.—and these are wildcards. Success and stability are no guarantee, and to reach great heights, it’s either a lottery ticket game of luck, a genetic lottery game of innate talent, or some combination of the two.

These are perfectly reasonable assumptions—if you live in 1952. Your beliefs about the world of careers and about what it takes to succeed need just as thorough an unmasking as your yearnings did—and I suspect that behind most of them, you’ll find big, fat conventional wisdom. You might first pull off the mask of one of your beliefs and find your parents or your friends or your college career coach—but if you keep going and pull on their face, you’ll usually see that it’s also a mask, and conventional wisdom is there hiding behind it. A general conception, a common opinion, an oft-cited statistic7—none of which have actually been verified by you, but all of which are treated as gospel by society.

Today’s world goes through dramatic changes each decade, which usually leaves conventional wisdom wildly outdated. But we’re wired for a more ancient world where almost nothing ever changed, so we all reason like cooks and treat conventional wisdom as equivalent to truth.

These problems then extend to how we view our own potential. When you overrate the impact of innate talent on how people fare in their careers—and you also conflate talent and skill level—it won’t leave you feeling great about your chances at many paths. Because we better understand the trajectory of traditional careers, we’re less prone to do this with them. A first-year medical student sees an experienced surgeon at work and thinks, “I can get there one day—just need to do about 20 years of hard work.” But when a young artist or entrepreneur or software engineer looks at the equivalent of the experienced surgeon in their field, they’re more likely to think, “Wow look how talented they are—I’m nowhere near that good,” and get all hopeless. There’s also the other common notion, that people who thrive in non-traditional careers had some “big break” at some point, like hitting a lucky scratch card jackpot—and I don’t know many people who want to risk their careers on scratch cards.

These are only a few examples of the slew of delusions and misconceptions we tend to have about how great careers happen. So let’s brainstorm how it might actually work:

The Career Landscape

I have no idea, mostly. And I think most people have no idea. Things are just changing too quickly.

But that’s kind of the key point. If you can figure out how to get a reasonably accurate picture of the real career landscape out there, you have a massive edge over everyone else, most of whom will be using conventional wisdom as their instruction booklet.

First, there’s the broad landscape—the set of all the jobs someone could possibly have in today’s society. My current job description is: “Writer of 8,000-to-40,000-word articles about a bunch of different topics, with cursing and stick figures, on a remarkably sporadic schedule.” Think conventional wisdom has any job openings for me with that description? The landscape today is made up of thousands of options—some 40 years old, some made possible only three months ago because of the advent of some new technology—and the way things work today, if there’s an option you want that’s not already out there, you can probably create it for yourself. Pretty stressful, but also incredibly exciting.

Then, there’s each specific career path. A career path is like a game board. The conventional wisdom bookshelf contains instruction booklets for only a small fraction of today’s available game boards—and those that it does have usually tell you how that game was played in the past, even though the current game board has evolved significantly into something with new kinds of opportunities and different rules and loopholes. When you consider a career path today, to make an accurate assessment of what the path looks like and what kinds of strength-weakness profiles it favors, you have to understand what that career’s current game board looks like. Otherwise, it’s like trying to evaluate your chances of being a professional basketball player based on your height and strength without realizing that, say, basketball has evolved and is now played on oversize courts that contain 10 different 7-foot hoops, and the current game favors speed over height and strength.

This is promising news. There are likely dozens of awesome career paths that beautifully match your natural strengths, and it’s likely that most other people trying to succeed on those paths are playing with an outdated rulebook and strategy guide. If you simply understand what the game board really looks like and play by modern rules, you have a huge advantage.

Your Potential

And this brings us to you and your particular strengths. Not only do we assess our strengths based on the wrong game boards (like in our basketball example)—even when we have the right game board in mind, we’re often bad at identifying the real strengths that that game calls for.

When assessing your chances on a certain career path, the key question is:

With enough time, could you get good enough at this game to potentially reach whatever your definition of success is in that career?

I like to view this journey to “good enough at the game to succeed” as a distance. The distance starts with where you are now—point A—and ends with you reaching your definition of success, which we can draw with a star.

The length of the distance depends on where point A is (how far along you are at the current moment) and where the star is (how lofty your definition of success is).

So if you’re a college graduate who majored in computer science and your career goal is to be a middle-of-the-ladder engineer at Google, your distance might look like this:

But if you’ve never done any kind of computer science before, and your career goal is to be the top engineer at Google, you’ve got a much longer road ahead:

If your goal is to create the new Google, the road gets much, much longer.

At this point, conventional wisdom might emerge as a voice in your head and point out that simply getting good enough at a certain skill doesn’t actually guarantee success—you might reach the star on a career path and still find that you haven’t “made it” yet.

That’s mostly wrong, because it’s misunderstanding the star. The star isn’t about a particular skill level—e.g. coding ability or acting skills or business savvy—it’s about the entire game. In traditional careers, the games tend to be more straightforward—if you want to be a top surgeon, and you get incredibly good at surgery, you’ve probably hit your star and you’ll have your career. But the game boards in less traditional careers often involve many more factors. Reaching the “I want to be a famous actor” star doesn’t simply mean getting as good at acting as Morgan Freeman, it means getting as good at the entire actor game as most movie stars get by the time they break through. Acting ability is only one piece of that puzzle—you also need a knack for getting yourself in front of people with power, a shrewdness for personal branding, an insane amount of optimism, a ridiculous amount of hustle and persistence, etc. If you get good enough at that whole game—every component of it—your chances of becoming an A-list movie star are actually pretty high. That’s what hitting the star means.

But conventional wisdom doesn’t get how non-traditional careers work—it only thinks in terms of a narrow aspect of success: talent and hard work. When career paths have game boards with much more going on, conventional wisdom just throws its hands up and calls it “luck.” To conventional wisdom, becoming a movie star requires some talent, but mostly, hitting a rare scratch ticket jackpot.

So how do you figure out your chances of getting to any particular star? It’s all about a simple formula:

Distance = Speed x Time.

In our case, the more apt wording might be:

Progress = Pace x Persistence.

Your outlook on any career quest depends on A) the pace at which you’ll be able to improve at playing that career’s “game” and B) the amount of time you’re willing to persist in chasing that star. Let’s talk about both of these:

Pace

What makes someone slower or faster at improving at a career game? I’d say it comes down to three factors:

Your level of chefness. As we discussed earlier, chefs look at the world with fresh eyes and build conclusions based on what they observe and what they’ve experienced. Cooks arrive at conclusions by following someone else’s recipe—in the case of careers, the recipe is usually conventional wisdom. Careers are complex games that almost everyone starts off bad at—then the chefs improve rapidly through a continual loop…

…while cooks improve at a snail’s pace, because their strategy is just following a recipe which itself barely changes. What’s more, in a world where career games are constantly evolving and morphing, the chef’s tactics can evolve in real time and keep up. Meanwhile, the cook’s recipe just grows more and more outdated—a problem they remain oblivious to. This is why I’m pretty convinced that at least for less traditional careers, your level of chefness is the single most important factor in determining your pace of improvement.

Your work ethic. This one is obvious. Someone who works on their career 60 hours a week, 50 weeks a year, is going to move down the path almost four times faster than someone who works 20 hours a week, 40 weeks a year. Someone who chooses a balanced lifestyle will move slower than a single-minded workaholic. Someone with a propensity towards laziness or procrastination is going to lose a lot of ground to someone who’s good at putting in consistent work days. Someone who frequently breaks from work to daydream or pick up their phone is going to get less done in each work hour than someone who practices deep focus.

Your natural abilities. Talent does matter. Smarter, more talented people will improve at a game at a faster rate than less naturally gifted people. But intelligence and talent are only two types of natural ability that come into play here. Cleverness and savvy matter too, and those qualities don’t always correlate with raw intelligence. Depending on the type of career, social skills can be critically important as well. In many careers, likable (or subtly manipulative) people have a big advantage over less likable people—and those who enjoy socializing will put in more people hours over time, and build deeper relationships, than antisocial types.

Other things, like existing connections, existing resources, and existing skills matter, of course, but they’re not components of pace—they’re part of the location of point A.

Persistence

When I say persistence, I’m referring to long-term persistence (as opposed to day-to-day work ethic). Persistence is simpler than pace. The more years you’re willing to commit to chasing a star, the farther along the road towards the star you’ll get. A car going 30 mph that quits driving after 15 minutes gets a lot less far than a car that drives 10 mph for two hours.

And this is why persistence is so important. Someone who has decided they’re only willing to give a dream career a shot for three years before they’ll go for their fallback plan has essentially disqualified themselves from a chance at their dreams. It doesn’t matter how awesome you are—if you’ll give up after two or three years of not breaking through, you’re unlikely to succeed. A few years is just not enough time to traverse the typically long distances it takes to get to the raddest success stars, no matter how impressive your pace.

Your Real Strengths and Weaknesses

With our pace-times-persistence equation in mind, let’s revisit the concept of strengths and weaknesses. It’s not that “strengths and weaknesses” is a bad concept—it’s that we think about it all wrong. When we list our strengths, we tend to list our areas of existing skill more than anything else. Instead, strengths should be all about pace and persistence qualities. Originality or lack thereof should be a critical component of the discussion, making qualities like agility and humility (trademark chef traits) notable strengths, and qualities like stubbornness8 or intellectual laziness (classic cook traits) important weaknesses. The subtleties of work ethic, like a knack for deep focus or a propensity to procrastinate, should also be a major part of the discussion, as should natural abilities beyond talent, like savvy and likability. Qualities related to persistence, like resilience and determination and patience, should be thought of as promising strengths, while a social tentacle clamoring to appear successful as quickly as possible should be viewed as a bright red flag.

Most importantly, these items shouldn’t be discussed as a snapshot of where they are now, but rather in terms of your potential for improvement in each of them. If you handed 25-year-old Michael Jordan a basketball for the first time, he’d suck. But calling basketball a “weakness” of his would be getting it very wrong. Instead, you’d want to watch him practice over the next six weeks and evaluate the slope of his improvement. This lesson applies to specific skills—but most general pace and persistence qualities can also be worked on and improved if you focus on them.

Filling in the Reality Box

Your true Reality Box would literally include all career paths for which you think a highly improved version of yourself could, with an entire lifetime of effort, reach the minimum star you’d be comfortable defining as success. This would be an impossibly big list, only ruling out paths that are clearly far too long for you to traverse at your maximum possible pace on the path (like me chasing a career as an Olympic figure skater). But it’s still useful to pause for a minute and reflect on the vast extent of your full Reality Box—just acknowledging how many options are truly open to you can put you in the right mindset.9

So to be a bit more efficient, let’s worry about the parts of the Reality Box that might actually end up in your Option Pool (the middle of the Venn diagram where the Want and Reality Boxes overlap). To complete our Reality Box audit with that caveat, we need to evaluate:

1) The general landscape. Take our best crack at evaluating the world’s current career landscape—the full range of options available (or create-able).

2) Specific game boards. For any careers that sound remotely interesting, ponder what the deal might be with that career’s current game board—the parties involved, the way success seems to be happening for others recently, the most up-to-date rules of the game, the latest new loopholes that are being exploited, etc.

3) Starting point. For those paths, evaluate your starting point, based on your current skills, resources, and connections relevant to that field.

4) Success point. Think about end points and where on each line your star should be placed. Ask yourself what’s the minimum level of success you’d need to achieve in order to feel happy about having chosen that career path.

5) Your pace. Make an initial estimate for what your pace of improvement might be on these various game boards, based on your current pace-related strengths and how much you think you can improve at each of them (in other words, how much your speed might be able to accelerate).

6) Your level of persistence. Evaluate the amount of time you think you’ll be willing to put into each of these respective paths.

Now it’s just math. You take your game board and make it a line, you plot starting points and success stars that together generate the various distances in front of you, and for each, you multiply your pace by your level of persistence. If it seems like the product of your pace and persistence for a given career path might be able to measure up to the path’s total length, that career lands in your Reality Box. Of course, it’s impossible to get exact values for any of the above factors, but it’s good to at least know the equation you’re working with.

A from-first-principles Reality Box audit may bring some overly optimistic people down to Earth, but I suspect that for most, an audit will leave them feeling like they have a lot more options than they realized, empowering them to set their sights on a bolder direction.

A good Reality Box reflection warrants yet another Want Box reflection. Reframing a bunch of career paths in your mind will affect your level of yearning for some of them. One career may seem less appealing after reminding yourself that it will entail thousands of hours of networking or multiple decades of pre-success struggle. Another may seem less daunting after changing your mind about how much luck is actually involved. There will be other career paths you hadn’t considered wanting because you hadn’t considered them as real options, but some deep reflection has opened your mind to them.

This brings us to the end of our long, two-part deep dive. After a fairly exhausting box-auditing process, we can return to our Venn10 diagram.

Assuming some things have changed, you have a new Option Pool to look at—a new list of options on the table that seem both desirable to your high-priority rankings and possible to achieve. We’re ready now to return to where we were before we started our analysis: the present moment. With these options in front of us, we’re ready to lift our heads up out of analysis and look forward into the future.

Connecting the Dots into the Future

It’s time to bring back your Career Plans map that I made you put down at the beginning of the post—the one with the arrow or the question mark. If there had been a clear arrow on your map before your audit, check out your new Option Pool. Given everything you’ve reflected upon, does your current career plan still qualify to be there? If so, congrats—you’re ahead of most of us.

If not, well that’s shitty news, but it’s also good news. Remember, going from a false arrow to a question mark is always major progress in life.

And actually, a new question mark implies having made the key cliff jump on two roller coasters: getting to know yourself and getting to know the world. Major step in the right direction. Cross out the arrow and join the question mark crowd.

Now the question mark crowd has a tough choice. You gotta pick one of the arrows in the Option Pool.

It’s a tough choice—but it should be way less tough than it is. Here’s why:

Careers used to be kind of like a 40-year tunnel. You picked your tunnel, and once you were in, that was that. You worked in that profession for 40 years or so before the tunnel spit you out on the other side into your retirement.

The truth is, careers have probably never really functioned like 40-year-tunnels, they just seemed that way. At best, traditional careers of the past played out kind of like tunnels.

Today’s careers—especially the less traditional ones—are really really not like tunnels. But crusty old conventional wisdom has a lot of us still viewing things that way, which makes the already hard job of making big career path choices much harder.

When you think of your career as a tunnel, it causes an identity crisis in anyone who doesn’t feel sure of who exactly they are and who they’ll want to be decades from now—which is most sane people. It enhances the delusion that what we do for work is a synonym for who we are, making a question mark on your map seem like an existential disaster.

When you think of your career as a tunnel, the stakes to make the right choice seem so high that it explodes the feeling of tyranny of choice. For perfectionist types especially, this can be utterly paralyzing.

When you think of your career as a tunnel, you lose the courage to make a career switch, even when your soul is begging for it. It makes switching careers feel incredibly risky and embarrassing, and it suggests that someone who does so is a failure. It also makes all kinds of multi-faceted, vibrant, mid-career people feel like they’re too old to make a bold switch or start a whole new path afresh.

But conventional wisdom still tells many of us that careers are tunnels. As the icing on its shit cake—on top of helping us yearn for things we don’t actually want, deny yearnings that we feel deep down, fear things that aren’t dangerous, and believe things about the world and our potential that aren’t accurate—conventional wisdom tells us that careers are a tunnel to help us daunt the shit out of ourselves unnecessarily.

Today’s career landscape isn’t a lineup of tunnels, it’s a massive, impossibly complex, rapidly changing science laboratory. Today’s people aren’t synonymous with what they do—they’re impossibly complex, rapidly changing scientists. And today’s career isn’t a tunnel, or a box, or an identity label—it’s a long series of science experiments.

Steve Jobs compared life to connecting the dots, pointing out that while it’s easy to look at your past and see how the dots connected to lead you to where you are, it’s basically impossible in life to connect the dots forwards.

If you look at the biographies of your heroes, you’ll see that their paths look a lot more like a long series of connected dots than a straight and predictable tunnel. If you look at yourself and your friends, you’ll probably see the same trend—according to data, the median time a young person stays in a given job is only 3 years (older people spend a longer time on each dot, but not that much longer—10.4 years on average).

So seeing your career as a series of dots isn’t a mental trick to help you make decisions—it’s an accurate depiction of what’s actually happening. And seeing your career as a tunnel isn’t just unproductive—it’s delusional.

Likewise, you’re limited to focusing mainly on the next dot on your path—because it’s the only dot you can figure out. You don’t have to worry about dot #4 because you can’t anyway—you’re literally not qualified to do so.

By the time dot #4 rolls around, you will have learned stuff about yourself you don’t know now. You’ll also have changed from who you are now, and your Yearning Octopus will reflect those changes. You’ll know a lot more than you currently do about the career landscape and the specific game boards you’re interested in, and you’ll have become a much better game player. And of course, that landscape—and those game boards—will have themselves evolved.

The fantastic website 80,000 Hours (which exists to help young, talented people work through their career choices) has compiled a lot of data to back this up: data on the fact that you’ll change, that the world will change, and that you’ll only learn with time what you’re actually good at. Popular psychologist Dan Gilbert also eloquently describes just how bad we are at predicting what will make us happy in the future.

Pretending you can figure out what dot #2 or #4 or #8 should be now is laughable. Future dots are the worry of a future, wiser you living in a future world. So let’s focus on dot #1.

If we’re thinking of ourselves as scientists and of society as a science lab, we should think of your current freshly revised Want-Reality Venn Diagram as nothing more than an early, rough hypothesis. Dot #1 is your chance to test it out.

Hypothesis testing is intuitive in the dating world. If a friend were toiling over what kind of person she wants to marry but never went out with anyone, you’d tell her, “You can’t figure this out on your couch—you’ve gotta start going on dates, and that’ll teach you what you want in a partner.” If that friend then went on a solid first date and returned home to toil for hours about whether or not this new person was The One, you’d again have to correct her. You’d say, “There’s no way you can know that from just one date! You have to get some experience dating this person to learn what you need to learn to make that decision.”

We can all agree that this hypothetical friend is pretty nuts and is lacking a fundamental understanding of how you find a happy relationship. So let’s not be like her when it comes to picking our career. Dot #1 is a chill situation—it’s just a first date.

This is awesome news—because it makes it a lot less scary to draw an arrow on your map if it’s only an arrow to dot #1 of your future. The real cause of tyranny of choice is accurately seeing the sheer number of options you have in today’s world while delusionally seeing those careers as the 40-year tunnels of yesterday’s world. That’s a lethal combo. Reframing your next major career decision as a far lower-stakes choice makes the number of options exciting, not stressful.

And that’s all great in theory. But now comes the hard part.

Making Your Move

You’ve reflected and reflected and reflected and weighed and measured and predicted and considered. You’ve chosen a dot and drawn an arrow. And now you have to actually make the move.

We’re super bad at this. We’re frightened people. We don’t like icky things and making a bold, real-life step is icky. If there’s any ounce of procrastination susceptibility in us, here’s where it’ll show itself.

The Yearning Octopus can help. As we discussed earlier, your behavior at any given point simply displays the configuration of your octopus. If you’ve decided on a life step and you can’t quite take it, it’s because the parts of you that don’t want to make a move are ranked higher in your subconscious than the parts of you that do. Your conscious mind may have tried to assign lower shelf ratings to the parts of your octopus that lean towards inertia, but your yearnings have rebelled. You’re a CEO not in control of their staff.

To fix this problem, think like a kindergarten teacher. In your class, a faction of the 5-year-olds is rebelling against your wishes. What do you do?

Go talk to the 5-year-olds that are causing the trouble. They’re unpleasant, defiant simpletons, but they can still be reasoned with. Talk to them about why you’ve ranked them lower than others in the octopus hierarchy. Describe to them the insights you gained from your Reality Box reflection. Remind them about how connecting the dots works and about the chillness of dot #1. You’re the teacher—figure it out.

The older I get, the clearer it becomes that our internal battle as the kindergarten teachers of our mind is like 97% of life’s struggle. The world is easy—you’re difficult. If you find yourself continually not executing your plans in life and your promises to yourself, you’ve uncovered your new #1 priority—becoming a better kindergarten teacher. Until you do, your life will be run by a bunch of primitive, short-sighted 5-year-olds, and your whole shit will suck. Trust me, I know.

If your inner analysis does call for a career leap to a new dot, I hope that at some point, you’re able to make the jump.

After the Move

Jumping to a new dot is a liberating feeling, usually side by side with some substantial internal havoc.

First of all, for a while at least, you’ll probably suck at what you’re doing on your new dot. While your wise self will know that’s exactly how it should be, your less wise selves will go into full existential meltdown mode. All of the fears you so thoughtfully deprioritized in your octopus ranking will think someone is murdering them and they’ll start trying to call 911. The yearnings you did prioritize won’t be feeling much gratification yet, and they’ll wonder if they were wrong all along about what they thought they wanted. The yearnings you didn’t prioritize will get out the guitar and start singing love songs for the greener-seeming grass you deprived them of. It won’t be much fun.

Even if things do go well, you’ll be quickly reminded of the fact that the Yearning Octopus is a generally unhappy creature. Core pieces of the octopus will feel neglected or even assaulted, and every day that goes by, you’ll be bearing the opportunity cost of the paths you were considering but chose not to walk down—the versions of you in parallel universes where you made other choices. You’ll think about their hypothetical advancement in the world and worry about what you may have passed up.

As you get wiser, you’ll learn to view a largely unhappy octopus with acceptance. You’ll let it whine and get good at tuning it out, knowing that it’s whining in the exact way you planned for it to be.

The whining octopus is a reminder of why pure, elated happiness is never a reasonable goal. The times you feel pure happiness are temporary, drug-induced delusions—like the honeymoon phase of a new relationship or new job or the high following a long-awaited success. Those moments are the perfect golf shots of a mediocre golfer’s outing—they’re awesome, and you should enjoy the shit out of them—but they’re not the new normal, and they never will be.

A better goal is contentment: the satisfying feeling that you’re currently taking the best crack you can at a good life path; that what you’re working on might prove to be a piece of an eventual puzzle you can feel really proud of. Chasing happiness is an amateur move. Feeling contentment in those times when your choices and your circumstances have combined to pull it off, and knowing you have all that you could ever ask for, is for the wise.

People talk about being present in the moment, but there’s also the broader concept of macro-presence: feeling broadly present in your own life. If you’re on a career dot that, when you’re being really honest with yourself, feels right, you get to stop thinking and stop planning for a while and just dig in. You’ll come back to the big picture later—for now, you can put the macro picture aside, put your head down, and dedicate all of your energy to the present. For a while, you can just live.

These moments don’t always last that long, so sink your teeth in. Put everything you’ve got into the dot you’ve chosen. As far as you know, you might be Michael Jordan holding his first basketball, so start playing.

The Next Dot?

At some point, your good feelings about the macro picture may sour. And when they do, you’ll have to get back into analysis mode and figure out what, in particular, is causing the restlessness.

Sometimes, the macro mission won’t be the problem. It’ll be that the chef in you has decided that the mission itself calls for a strategic dot jump. In these cases, jumping dots isn’t a release of persistence but the stuff of persistence. This is the mission-enhancing type of dot jump.

Other times, you’ll feel a darker kind of restlessness—the suspicion that you may need to change up the macro mission. When this happens, you’ll have to figure out if that feeling is emerging from the wise parts of you or simply from your restless, deprioritized yearnings. A mission-changing dot jump may be in order, but depending on which parts of you are asking for it, it may also be the wrong move.

In these moments, it’s important to consider where you tend to be on this spectrum:

The people on the left side of this spectrum are jump-shy. The cement-footed. Their pitfall is staying way too long in the wrong things. The people on the right are jump-happy—the wing-footed—and they have the opposite pitfall: they’re quick quitters.11 (You should be especially wary of cement feet—psychologists believe that people at the end of their lives are most likely to regret living by inertia: a commonly voiced regret is “I wish I had quit earlier,” and the most common advice of the elderly is, “Don’t stay in a job you dislike.“)

This is why these internal frameworks are important. They give you the ability to analyze the source of your impulses. In our example, the question is whether your impulse to jump missions is the result of genuine evolution or quick-quitter bias. So think about your diagram. Is your restlessness just the expected incessant whining of an octopus still correctly configured? The weariness from a long trudge on what’s still the right path for you? Or have you learned new information about yourself or the world during the trudge that has corrected some off-base initial assumptions? Or maybe something is fundamentally evolving—some blue or yellow loop activity:

If you feel that things have genuinely changed, you may decide to zoom out even further and think about the big red loop, which deals with fundamentally changing your mission:

If a career is like connecting the dots, we should probably rank “getting wise about dot-jumping” pretty high on our to-do list. The best place to start is by looking at your own past. Studying your own past decisions, with the flashlight of hindsight and accumulated wisdom, is like an athlete studying game tape.

Looking at my own past, I can see a lot of dot jumps (or, while I was still in school, career plan adjustments), and some of them look pretty unwise in retrospect. But the clearer a picture I can see of my past bad decisions and the thought patterns and behavioral habits that built them, the less likely I’ll be to repeat them in the future.

Remembering that you’re kind of dumb is also a critical humbling exercise. The insecurity of humility doesn’t feel very good, and the burden of having to continually invent your own life map is never easy—but insecurity and difficulty are the feelings of driving your own ship. It’s when we feel too good that we run the risk of becoming overconfident, intellectually complacent, and set in our ways. It’s exactly when we think we have life all figured out that we end up losing our way.

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Over the course of your life, your good and bad decisions will collaborate to forge your unique life path. Often on this blog, I’ve written about how irrational our fears can be and how badly they can hold us back. But we should probably embrace the fear of end-of-life regret.

I’ve thankfully never been on anything that felt like a deathbed, but it seems like there’s something about the end of life that lets people see things with clear eyes. It seems like facing death makes all of those voices in your head who aren’t actually you melt away, leaving your little authentic self standing there all alone, in reflection. I think end-of-life regrets may simply be your authentic self thinking about the parts of your life you never got to live—the parts of you that someone else kicked down into your subconscious.

My own psyche seems to back this up—looking back on my path so far, the mistakes that bother me most are the ones that happened because someone else took the wheel of my head and overruled the quiet, insecure voice of my authentic self—the mistakes that I knew at the time, deep down, were wrong. My goal for the future isn’t to avoid mistakes, it’s for the mistakes I do make to be my own.

That’s why I went through such an excruciatingly rigorous analysis in this post. I think this is one of those few topics in life that’s worth it. Other voices will never stop fiercely trying to live your life for you—you owe it to that little insecure character in the very center of your consciousness to get this right.

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For help analyzing your situation:

Some paper to write on: Your octopus. Your priority shelf. Some path distances. Your career dot map.

For those who want to dig in even further: Alicia (WBW Manager of Lots of Things) has put together a more involved group of worksheets.

For further exploration:

The site 80,000 hours—dedicated to helping young, high-potential people make big career choices—is an awesome resource. The site is run by super smart, thoughtful, forward-thinking people, and can be digested in video or book format in addition to on their site.

I’ve been reading Seth Godin’s blog for years. Seth has a lot of wisdom in his head, and he doles it out in little bite-sized nuggets each morning on his blog (which I receive by email). A lot of Seth’s advice applies to career choices. Here’s an example (which I adapted into one of the cartoons in this post).

Eric Barker’s blog is full of actual data that can help with career choices, like this post on what makes a career fulfilling or this one on the importance of mentors.

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More Wait But Why human deep dives:

The Marriage Decision: Everything Forever or Nothing Ever Again

Why Procrastinators Procrastinate

And a post about getting wiser

And a few less self-reflect-y Wait But Why posts on:

Awkward social interactions

The history of everything

Colonizing Mars


  1. And other higher education.

  2. Also hoodies are cozy and Allbirds are like wearing socks all the time and jeans are magical pants you never have to actually wash unless you spill something colorful on them.

  3. Fun meals and exercise fall into this category.

  4. I personally hope my retirement is just as rich and vibrant as a career path, which means I’ll need to continue to reflect on my path in Retirement Orchard.

  5. You know he’s actually a Yearning Pentapus, I know he’s actually a Yearning Pentapus, and he knows he’s actually a Yearning Pentapus—but let’s just leave it alone.

  6. There are printouts at the bottom of the post if you’d like to work through your analysis on paper.

  7. Did you know that 9 out of 10 restaurants fail?!

  8. Stubbornness is a cook quality because it means being a cook to your previous self—i.e. treating your previous self’s opinions and methods and habits as your permanent recipe.

  9. Or totally paralyze you and ruin your happiness!

  10. John Venn really pulled something off here. A Venn diagram is the most obvious possible kind of diagram, and somehow, John Venn convinced everyone he invented it. And this is despite openly saying he didn’t invent it. Venn explains: “I began at once somewhat more steady work on the subjects and books which I should have to lecture on. I now first hit upon the diagrammatical device of representing propositions by inclusive and exclusive circles. Of course the device was not new then, but it was so obviously representative of the way in which any one, who approached the subject from the mathematical side, would attempt to visualize propositions, that it was forced upon me almost at once.”

  11. This spectrum, of course, is also highly relevant in relationships.

The post How to Pick a Career (That Actually Fits You) appeared first on Wait But Why.

  •  

It’s 2020 and you’re in the future

It’s finally the 2020s. After 20 years of not being able to refer to the decade we’re in, we’re all finally free—in the clear for the next 80 years until 2100, at which point I assume AGI will have figured out what to call the two decades between 2100 and 2120.

We now live in the 20s! It’s exciting. “The twenties” is super legit-sounding, and it’s so old school. The 40s are old. The 30s even more so. But nothing is older school than the Roaring 20s.

We’re now in charge of making this a cool decade so when people 100 years from now are thinking about how incredibly old-timey the 2020s were, it’s old-timey in a cool appealing way and not a boring shitty way.

It’s also weird that to us, the 2020s sounds like such a rad futuristic decade—and that’s how the 1920s seemed to people 100 years ago today. They were all used to the 19-teens, and suddenly they were like, “whoa cool we’re in the twenties!” Then they got upset thinking about how much farther along in life their 1910 self thought they’d be by 1920.

In any case, it’s a perfect time for one of those “shit we’re old” posts.

So here are some New Years 2020 time facts:

When World War 2 started, the Civil War felt as far away to Americans as WW2 feels to us now.

Speaking of World War 2, the world wars were pretty close together. If World War 2 were starting today, World War 1 would feel about as far back to us as 9/11.

The Soviet Union break up is now as distant a memory as JFK’s assassination was when the Soviet Union broke up.

Moving on to more inane topics, there have been more Super Bowls since the 1993 Cowboys–Bills SB than before it.

And West Germany’s 1974 World Cup victory happened closer to the first World Cup in 1930 than to today.

The Wonder Years aired from 1988 and 1993 and depicted the years between 1968 and 1973. When I watched the show, it felt like it was set in a time long ago. If a new Wonder Years premiered today, it would cover the years between 2000 and 2005.

Also, remember when Jurassic Park, The Lion King, and Forrest Gump came out in theaters? Closer to the moon landing than today.

Y2K? Closer to the 70s than today.

Meanwhile, the O.J. Simpson trial is now half way between the 1960s and today. And closer to the Charles Manson trial.

As for you, if you’re 60 or older, you were born closer to the 1800s than today.

Today’s 35-year-olds were born closer to the 1940s than to today.

There are a lot of options for that kind of calculation, but those two seemed like the most depressing to me. Worth mentioning that my 94-year-old grandmother was born closer to the Andrew Jackson administration than to today.

If you were born in the 1980s like me, a kid today who’s the age you were in 1990 is a full 30-year generation younger than you. They’ll remember Obama’s presidency the way you remember Reagan’s. 9/11 to them is the moon landing for you. The 90s seem as ancient to them as the 60s seem to you. To you, the 70s are just a little before your time—that’s how they think of the 2000s. They see the 70s how you see the 40s. And the hippy 60s seems as old to them as the Great Depression seems to you.

But the weirdest thing about kids today: most of them will live to see the 2100s.

Sorry if this stressed you out. Happy New Year!

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If you like timelines, you should probably head here next.

The post It’s 2020 and you’re in the future appeared first on Wait But Why.

  •  

You Won’t Believe My Morning

You won’t believe my morning.

I went out on my daily excursion to sit on the front step of my building for ten minutes holding my breath when people walked by. Normally, I spend the time diddling around my phone, but I forgot to bring my phone this morning, so I just looked around.

As I was taking in the emptiness of the street, a little glint caught my eye in a patch of dirt on the sidewalk. I bent over to look closer, and there was the glint again. It wasn’t a normal glint like from a shiny rock or a piece of metal—it was a little pinprick of flashing light.

Intrigued, I was now on all fours looking closer. And I saw the most surreal thing.

Tiny houses.

Like tiny houses. Each about a millimeter high, like ornately carved grains of sand.

I was either dreaming or looking at the coolest, cutest little art project ever.

As I examined the microscopic village, I noticed what looked like a scrawl of teeny letters on the dirt next to the houses. It said:

PUT YOUR THUMB ON THE OVAL

Now fully having the time of my life, I looked around for an oval. I searched for a few minutes with no luck until I saw, a bit outside the area where the houses were, a little strip of silver, maybe two millimeters long and a millimeter wide. Careful not to damage the houses, I put my thumb on it.

I won’t be able to accurately describe what happened next, but I’ll try my best. Imagine if the ground underneath you suddenly felt like a furiously spinning liquid whirlpool, combined with the feeling of freefalling, combined with your entire visual field turning into a blurry gray, combined with the worst nausea of your life.

And then, just as fast as it started, it all stopped. I cowered for a few seconds trying to catch my breath, and when I opened my eyes, I wasn’t in New York anymore.

I was on a pastoral ranch, surrounded by big log cabins and a bunch of people staring down at me as I looked up at them, still on all fours. One of the people said to me, “Are you okay?”

“I feel okay, but I’m having severe hallucinations.”

They all started cheering and hugging and high-fiving each other.

“Are you doctors?” I asked.

“He thinks he has the virus,” one of them said, and they all roared with laughter.

A woman shushed the crowd and said, “Okay, back to work everyone. I’ll give him the briefing.”

The others left, and the woman smiled at me. “I’m Layla.”

“Hi Layla. Do I have coronavirus?” I asked.

“You don’t have coronavirus,” she said. “You’re just tiny. We shrunk you to 1/10,000th of your normal size. You haven’t moved anywhere, you’ve just gotten much smaller.”

“Fuck,” I explained.

“Yeah, I imagine it’s a lot to take in,” she said. “Let me try to clear things up. There are different tiers of human life, not just the one you’re used to. Our tier is exactly 1/10,000th the size of yours. In yours, people are about 180 centimeters tall. Here, we’re about 0.18 millimeters tall. We’d say 180 micrometers tall, but I know in your world, micrometers don’t mean very much.”

I stared at her. “You’re telling me I’m 0.18 millimeters tall right now?”

“Correct,” she said. “About half the size of a dust mite, or a little taller than the width of a human hair up in your world. A person in your world with really good eyesight could barely see you, if they looked closely. And see that house over there?” She pointed to a large, three-story house. “In the scale you’re used to, that would be about 10 meters high. Here, it’s about the size of a cubic millimeter—the size of a grain of sand on the sidewalk. Some of our houses were actually carved from grains of sand.”

“Hold on.” I stopped her. “I’m very scared of bugs. I wrote a whole post about it once. Are there giant bugs here?”

“Yes and no. There are no bugs in our village because we lined the perimeter with a poison that kills any insects that come too close. But you wouldn’t want to walk too far away from the houses—about three centimeters from here, you’ll cross that barrier and run into things you won’t like.”

“How about flying bugs?” I asked diligently.

“Oh, I haven’t mentioned time yet. Okay so time here moves 100 times faster than it does up on your tier. Time scales up inversely with the square root of the size difference. So 1/10,000th of the size means 100X faster time. So when a flying insect starts to descend into the village, our defense crew has over a minute here to handle the situation. They fire a jet of air at the insect that deflects it away from us. Same deal for dogs. Every year or two, a dog will pee on us. The defense crew keeps track of every dog walking by. At 1/100th the speed of our world, we first see an approaching dog about ten minutes before it gets near us, and by the time a peeing dog is lifting its leg over us, we’ve had plenty of time to draw the tarps, which roll over the entire village and cover everything—the same tarps we use every time it rains or snows.”

“Good to know. But why am I here?”

“Right, I was about to get to that. After a heated debate in the village, we voted to bring someone from your world here, because we wanted to show you something. We’ve been trying to catch someone’s eye in your world for three of your weeks. That’s almost six years here. That’s why everyone was so excited to see you.”

“How did you catch my attention?”

“With that.” She pointed at a tube on the roof of one of the houses that looked like large telescope. “That’s a super-powered laser that we’ve been trying to shine in people’s eyes as they walked by on the sidewalk. But no one noticed. Until today. Way out on the horizon, we piled boulders into the shapes of letters that spelled out the instructions, and you were dicking around just hard enough that you actually bent down to read them. We’re thankful.”

“What was that oval in the instructions?”

“Look down.”

I was standing on a metallic oval about the size of a swimming pool.

“This is our trans-tier station. When you touched this with your thumb, it shrunk you down to our tier.

“Wait.” I looked up at her. “Do I live here now?”

She laughed. “Don’t worry. We’ll send you back to your world in a little bit. Now come with me.”

I walked with Layla towards the other side of the village. I looked around. Everyone was staring at me. Some people waved.

“What’s that?” I asked Layla, pointing up at what looked like a sheet of color stretching into the sky.

“That’s your apartment building. All you can see from here is the first brick. That band of light way up in the sky is the mortar between the first and second brick in the wall.”

We walked into a small building and entered a room with a long white table in the middle. Layla turned towards a wall on the side of the room, and suddenly the outline of a square formed in the wall. The square moved outwards into the room and rotated downwards until it was parallel to the floor. Layla pulled a tweezer-like tool from her pocket and carefully pinched what looked like nothing a few centimeters above the panel.

She walked over to me. “Open your palm.”

She put her tweezers into my hand and dropped something the size of a grain of sand. I raised up my palm to look at it. It was reddish and fuzzy.

“What is it?” I asked.

“SARS-CoV-2. What you’ve been calling ‘coronavirus.’”

I flung it across the room. “What the fuck.”

Layla laughed, touched the square, and the little object flew back across the room into its spot above the square.

“It can’t hurt you here. The viruses of your world are way too big to do any damage in our bodies.”

I stared at her, trying to process the situation. “How do you know about coronavirus? And how did you…get one?”

“Oh we know everything about your world. Your tier moves so slowly compared to ours that your technology is eons behind ours. Our tools have allowed us to watch your world since your prehistoric days. As for how we got a coronavirus particle, we didn’t get it—we made it.”

You made the coronavirus?”

“Well, with a little help. Follow me.”

Again I followed Layla, again dumbfounded, this time out of the building toward a fenced-in area outside. When we got close, a door in the fence opened and inside, we stood together on the edge of what looked like a barren circle of land.

Layla opened her hand. The little virus was sitting neatly on her palm. “SARS-CoV-2 is a standard sized Coronavirus—about 120 nanometers in diameter. 120 nanometers is ridiculously small in your world, but in ours, you can roll it around in your fingers.

“Cool…let me think about that for a minute.”

“Wait, I can explain this better. In your world, this is a perfect size analogy:

SARS-CoV-2 : grain of sand :: grain of sand : house

In both cases, the relationship is 1-to-10,000, which is also the relationship of our world to yours. In your world, your apartment building is huge, a grain of sand is tiny, and this coronavirus is unfathomably microscopic. In ours, the virus is tiny, a grain of your sand is huge enough to live in, and your apartment building is unfathomably large.”

“Makes sense.”

“Now, what’s a virus made of? Atoms. And atoms are about 0.1 nanometers in diameter—about 1/1,000th of the diameter of a SARS-CoV-2 particle. That’s small even for us. An atom is almost as small for us as a virus is for you. Constructing a virus requires incredibly complex engineering and tools that can interact with the quantum field. We can’t do it ourselves.”

“So how—”

“Look down.”

I looked at the ground.

She pulled me toward the center of the circle of land and then pulled me to an abrupt stop.

“Look closer.”

I bent over as far as I could and strained my eyes. No. Fucking. Way.

Another microscopic world.

“Is that…”

“Yup. That’s the tier below us. Give me your thumb.”

She carefully placed the virus particle onto the ground. Then she guided my hand to the ground, touching both of our thumbs to a little metallic spot.

Whirlpool. Falling. Gray. Nausea. Misery.

I eventually got a hold of my trembling and drooling and opened my eyes. In every direction, as far as I could see, stretched a hazy blue-ish / purple-ish plane. It also began to dawn on me that I wasn’t standing or sitting on anything—I was floating.

After about a minute of wondering what the hell was going on in my life, a patch of the sky darkened. The dark region became smaller and more defined until it condensed into Layla floating next to me.

“Please don’t leave me again,” I said.

“Sorry, my thumb hit the pad a split second later than yours did. Time moves 100 times faster here than up there, so you got to spend some reflective time here by yourself.”

“Okay where are we?”

“We’re outside your apartment building. Remember?”

“Righttt. So what size are we?”

“We went down the same jump you did when you transitioned from your world to ours—we shrunk to 1/10,000th of our previous size. So you’re now 18 nanometers tall. If you stood on the edge of a cross-section of a human hair, it would take you about two hours to walk across it.”

“Jesus.”

“Time here is now going by at 100X the speed of time in my world, which means it’s moving 10,000 times faster than the speed of time in yours. You could spend a year here and less than an hour would pass in your world.”

“Kind of like Inception?”

“Not really. Anyway, nothing down here works the way it does in our worlds. Like see how the ground is all eternal and purply?”

“Yeah.”

“That’s not really ground, and it’s not really purple. When you’re this small, there aren’t any solid objects in the sense you understand. And your eyes are too small now to perceive the visible light spectrum.”

“So what the hell?”

“I don’t really get it either. But the people who live here have incredibly advanced ways of manipulating the quantum field so we can feel like we’re intact humans, floating in place, seeing purple. They set it up this way because it’s something we can make sense of.”

“That’s nice of them. Where are they all anyway?”

“The thing is, they don’t like our world, and they really don’t like your world. They interact with us occasionally, when it’s necessary, but they’ll never allow you or anyone from your world to see them or know anything about how they live. This is actually the first time anyone from your world has been allowed down here, other than Andy Kaufman, who’s lived here since 1984.”

“Then why am I allowed to be here?”

“So I can show you this.”

Layla straightened her arm in front of her, with her palm facing outwards. Her palm lit up and when it did, a bizarre-looking giant object was revealed in front of us.

“This,” Layla said, “is SARS-CoV-2. Down here, it’s the size of a house.”

I looked up at the vast virus in front of me. It looked nothing like it had when it was a fuzzy grain of sand in my hand. It was transparent, like a massive, intricately structured, sphere-shaped jellyfish. There was a kind of furious movement within the transparency, but I couldn’t see anything specific moving. It was confusing.

Layla motioned for me to come close to the virus. She took my hand and placed my palm onto the virus’s almost invisible surface. It felt kind of like palming a grape bunch except instead of grapes it was tapioca balls like the ones in those bubble teas—if the tapioca balls were vibrating so vigorously that it felt a little like being mildly electroshocked, like when you put your finger in an electrical outlet. It was an unpleasant sensation, though not quite painful, and super weird and cool-feeling.

“Pull one off,” Layla said.

It took me a few tries to latch onto one of the atoms, because they’re “slippery” (quotes because there is no word for what it felt like, but “slippery” gets the general idea across), and when I finally got one and pulled, there was a lot of resistance. When I pulled it, it dragged the adjacent atoms along with it, and the harder I pulled, the more ferociously and unpleasantly it vibrated. Finally it snapped free. I looked at my fist—I had an atom.

Layla smiled. “Cool right?”

So cool. Can I keep it?”

“Sure good luck with that.”

I was so awe-struck by so many things, I had forgotten how intensely confused I was.

“Wait, so why did you make this?”

She turned towards me. “As I said, because of the way time moves—”

“Your world has been around a lot longer than ours.”

“Yes. And this world we’re in now has been around a lot longer than mine. They know much more about everything than we do, and they can do things we can’t even begin to understand. The stuff they can do is so over our heads they can’t even explain it to us. And we’re that far ahead of your world.

For a long time, as advanced as this world was, it relied on us to preserve our world for its own survival. It exists on a patch of dirt in our village. If our village were destroyed, they would be destroyed with it. But a while back, they worked out the technology for how to be location independent, which means they can move from wherever they are to any other place in the universe instantly.

We don’t have that technology yet. We tried to learn from them, but we couldn’t grasp the fundamental ideas well enough to develop it ourselves. So we’re stuck in our location.”

“In New York City?”

“Yup. We migrated here in the 1800s when we determined it would be a good place to interface with your world, should the need ever arise. We’re also not the only people in our world. There are lots of villages like ours in different parts of the Earth. Once we connected with you, the others stopped broadcasting their location. There’s no reason for more than one of us to be revealed to your world.

For most of time, Earth was a safe and stable home for our world. But over the last century, your world has been advancing exponentially in technology but remaining stagnant in wisdom. You’re rapidly gaining tremendous powers but still behaving like short-sighted primates. The voice of wisdom is there, but it’s being trampled over by political parties, religions, and nations too mired in blind conflict to lift their heads up and see the bigger picture.”

“It’s funny you say that Layla. I’m actually writing a whole thing about—”

“Oh I know. We did our research on everyone who lives in your vicinity so we’d know how to communicate with the person we brought to us if we caught someone’s attention. That’s why I’m speaking English and speaking in the odd way you do. Your little series is cute, even if it took us forever to read—but it will have limited effect. Your world is stubborn about growing up. And in the process of destroying yourselves, we believe you’ll destroy us as well.”

“So you’re trying to kill us off with a pandemic.”

“If we wanted to kill you off, you’d all be dead right now. It’s an option we hope we don’t have to use. We were once like you and we empathize with your struggle.

We created this coronavirus to fall into a certain sweet spot—not damaging enough to destroy your world, but bad enough to cause a long and scary global crisis. Short of an alien attack, it is the one thing that could make all humans in your world feel like they’re on the same team against a common enemy. The first and most crucial step on the road to a long-lasting species is the epiphany that you truly are a single team, alone in a dark and dangerous universe. We’re hoping the virus can help push you in that direction.”

“I feel like there was a better way to do this.”

“We probably could have thought a little harder about it.”

“Yeah cause it’s going pretty badly up there is the thing.”

“Totes. Anyway, we couldn’t make the virus on our own. It’s hard enough to make something that small and complex that involves atomic and subatomic construction, but we wanted the virus to be precisely as harmful as it is. We needed help. The tier below us is less vulnerable to your world than we are, but for reasons I’m not entirely sure about, they also believe living in a multi-tiered ecosystem may be important in the future—so they share our interests. They agreed to build the virus for us.”

“How did you manage to get the virus into our world?” I asked.

“It’s funny. You have to imagine it from our perspective. If you’re us, the world you’re planning to transform is a planet with nearly an AU diameter, full of 18-kilometer tall people—people so tall, your world’s airplanes could accidentally fly into their belly buttons. Now imagine you’re standing on that planet, smaller than one of their dust mites, pinching between your fingers something the size of a grain of sand on your scale. You find your way onto one of these giants’ football-field-size teeth, and you flick the grain of sand into his kilometer-wide chasm of a mouth. And that’s supposed to change the trajectory of their future. It seems impossible.

“And yet.”

“And yet. With some very clever maneuvers, we flicked our little particle into the mouth of an unlucky giant, and it did the trick. By the way, we were dying when you blamed it on a pangolin of all things.”

“He seemed guilty. I still don’t understand why you brought me down here.”

“We weren’t originally planning to reveal any of this backstory to your world. But after watching things unfold for the first few weeks, we don’t see enough of the effect we were hoping for. Maybe if your world learns that there are other worlds out there—worlds that did manage to triumph in the wisdom game—it’ll empower the wise voices to stand up with a bit more courage in this struggle and in even greater challenges that lie ahead. It’s a long shot, but these are desperate times.”

“I guess it’s worth a try. I’ll write a post explaining what I learned from you.”

“And tweet out the post and send it out to your email list and stuff?”

“Eh. Fine.”

“Ready to go back up to your life? Only 23 seconds have passed there since you shrunk down.”

“Yeah let’s do it.”

Layla and I moved ourselves on top of the big metal oval.

“I’m going to increase my size 10,000-fold and yours 100,000,000-fold, so you can go back home in one shot…which is a good thing because transporting up is even worse than transporting down.”

“Great…”

“Ready?”

“I have one more question.”

“Yes?”

“How many tiers are there?” I asked.

“No one knows for sure. The people on this atomic-level tier tell us they know of at least one tier below them, though they won’t tell us more than that. And no one seems to know about tiers above yours. Your world is thinking about that, with all your multiverse talk. We’re still working on that one too.”

“If you ever figure it out, will you let me know?”

“One thing at a time.”

We touched our thumbs to the metal.

___________

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To support Wait But Why, visit our Patreon page.

More Posts:

As discussed, why bugs ruin everything.

Another time we transported ourselves.

And a puzzle for your quarantine.

The post You Won’t Believe My Morning appeared first on Wait But Why.

  •  

The Big and the Small

I have a surprise for you.

I’ll tell you about it in a minute. First, let’s have a little fun. Come with me.

I haven’t told anyone this before, but I actually live in the fun room. I just gave you a tour of my house, where I spend a large portion of my life thinking about the size of things.

I have visitors in the fun room from time to time, but after a few minutes, they’re usually pretty funned out and leave me to my crises. But one day, something unexpected happened.

It was 2013. Wait But Why was a few months old. And I got an email from someone named Philipp Dettmer. I was slightly unsettled by the pp and tt, but I decided to read what he had to say.

He explained that he lives in Germany where he makes animated educational videos about a lot of different things, kind of like Wait But Why but a different medium. I took a look at his YouTube page. It was named a random string of letters:

kurzgesagt

Apparently it means “In a Nutshell” in German, but I didn’t know that at the time and was very close to being done with Philipp Dettmer for good when I decided to watch one of the videos.

It was delightful.

I watched another. And another. And then it hit me.

Philipp—this random man in Germany—also lives in the fun room.

The next day, we were on the phone. There was a lot to talk about. We decided we had to do something together, and we settled on adapting one of my early posts into a kurzgesagt video.1

In the seven years since then, Philipp and I have become great friends, and I have not missed a kurzgesagt video since. Whenever Philipp and I get dinner, we head straight to the fun room to talk about the universe. And a few months ago, we decided to collaborate again. It was time to go public with the fun room.

At some point in our pasts, we had both become enamored with two fun room icons, Cary and Michael Huang, known on the internet as the Huang Twins. The twins do a lot of cool things, but it was their Scale of the Universe toy that we loved most.

Inspired by their work, we decided to go for it. We wanted to make the best size explorer we could imagine. We called it Universe in a Nutshell.

Of course, it took roughly 18 times longer than we thought it would. We brainstormed the interface for quite some time, and then Philipp, along with the incredible kurzgesagt team, dug into working on illustrations and animations, while I worked with the team on the written explainers.

Thousands of human hours later, the app is done. 250 objects, 30,000+ words of explanations and fun facts, just the right mood music, and what we think is a pretty great interface.

Here’s how it works:

The app is a giant wall. The wall is impossibly large—large enough to fit full-sized galaxies on it. The wall is also impossibly high-resolution—hi-res enough to contain sharp images of subatomic particles.

I know it seems weird that I’m talking about it as if it’s a real object, but I have a good reason: to get the full mind-blow effect, you have to realize what you’re looking at. You’re not moving forward and backward through a tunnel of objects—it just seems that way because your brain will refuse to accept the insanity of the actual sizes you’re seeing. By reminding yourself again and again that all of these objects are “painted” on the same 2D wall, you’ll hopefully experience some fun mind-bending moments.

The app looks like this:

And this:

And this:

And there are three ways to zoom:

You can tap any object for an explainer and fun facts. All of the facts you just read in the fun room are also in the app, along with a million other things. (The surprisingly-good-for-Wait-But-Why-illustrations from the fun room are the work of Kurzgesagt. Don’t think this is some new normal.)

Three more things:

1) The app is $3 in the US store, which, considering the fact that a magical infinite wall should really go for like $2.5 million, is a huge steal.

2) If you like the app, please give it a rating or review. For example, here’s my review:

3) This is V1 of the app. As we made the app, we had a constant side conversation going on about possibilities for V2, V3, and beyond. We’re launching today, but this is just the beginning. We want this app to be a brain playground that just keeps getting better and better. And here’s where you come in.

As you use the app, whenever you have an “I wish the app did X” or “It would be so cool if the app could do Y” thought, we want to hear it. As this is V1, we of course also want to know whenever you have a “This isn’t working right” or an “I think this fact is off” thought. In the app’s menu, you’ll see a “feedback” tab, where you can tap the feedback email address and let us know what you’re thinking.

Okay, here you go. Click the left app for iPhone/iPad, the right one for Android.

 
___________

Also: To commemorate the app launch, Kurzgesagt did their own fun room creation today—a delightful video about the sizes of stars.

___________

End things:

If you like Wait But Why, sign up for our unannoying-I-promise email list and we’ll send you new posts when they come out.

To support Wait But Why, visit our Patreon page.

___________

More trips to the fun room:

The Fermi Paradox

The SpaceX Post

The Quadrillion Sour Patch Kids Post

And a trip to the not-so-fun room


  1. Kurzgesagt did an updated version of the video in 2018.

The post The Big and the Small appeared first on Wait But Why.

  •  

Mailbag #2

Last month, I emailed readers announcing an upcoming mailbag post—the WBW post version of an AMA. 1,500 questions poured in—remarkably interesting, creative questions on a wide range of topics. I picked some for this round, and we’re keeping the rest in a database that I’ll go back to for future mailbags (mailbag@waitbutwhy.com is always open, so send questions anytime and we’ll add them to the list).

There’s a lot to cover, so let’s get going.

Question from my 7-year-old: How many germs would you have to put together to actually be able to see them? What would it look like?Kirsten, Zachary’s mum (Sydney, Australia)

You’re my kind of guy, Zachary. Let’s discuss.

There are a lot of germs out there. A smaller germ, like the virus that causes covid, is 120nm across. The smallest object we can see is about 0.1mm—about the width of a human hair. You’d have to line up about 800 coronaviruses to get to 0.1mm—but that would be a one-dimensional line way too thin to see. To actually see something, you’d have to give it some area and turn the 800-virus line into an 800 x 800 square. That clump of 640,000 viruses would be just big enough to see as a tiny speck.1 As for what it would look like, your guess is as good as mine Zachary.

I’m never good at stopping once I start on an exploration of size, and doing this answer got me googling all kinds of things.

Like how big all the bacteria in the human body would be if you clumped it all together. I had always heard the famous stat that there are 10 times as many bacteria in your body as human cells. It turns out that that’s been debunked. The real ratio is closer to 1:1, with both kinds of cells in the ballpark of 40 trillion in an adult human body.2

Anyway, the NIH estimates that all that bacteria adds up to only 0.3% of a human’s body mass. Zachary is 7, so let’s estimate his mass at 25 kg. That means the bacteria in his body adds up to 75 grams—about the weight of a plum. Assuming the density of Zachary’s bacteria is similar to the density of his body, that would make the bacteria ball about the size of a plum too.

This led me to the obvious next question: how big would all the bacteria on Earth be if you bunched them all together?3

Thankfully, University of Georgia microbiologist William Whitman has done the hard work of coming up with an estimate for the number of bacteria on Earth: 5 nonillion.

That’s 5,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.

To couple that estimate with a wild estimate of our own, we can use the volume of an E. coli bacteria (.7µm3) and assume that’s somewhere around the average size of Earth bacteria. 5 nonillion x .7µm3 comes out to a cube with a base of about 15km (~9.5mi).

This massive cube of bacteria covers a large part of Los Angeles and rises higher than the cruising altitude of commercial airplanes. If you were on the ground, it would take a full day to walk around the cube, and it would be a bad experience because the whole day you’d be right next to a vile bacteria cube.

If we took a huge butter knife and smeared the cube out evenly on the Earth’s surface, it would cover the entire Earth with a layer of pure bacteria 7mm (1/4 inch) thick, and everything would be gross.

K let’s move on.

What do you think of scientists putting mini human brains in mice? Where do you think this kind of science could lead in the future? – Leah N. (Quincy, IL)

I have no idea what’s going on with this question but it’s now all I care about. I’m picturing a world with tiny field mice with human intelligence. They’d form tiny societies run by tiny iron-fisted mouse tyrants. They could have little academies and do research on mice-related things. They might organize a mouse Olympics that we could televise and bet on. Some people would befriend mice and some might even choose to get married to mice. I hope this is what you’re talking about Leah, and I refuse to look it up because I’m sure whatever you’re actually talking about will be a huge letdown.

Drugs: do you do them? What do you think of them? – Tom C. (Nottingham, UK)

Kind of what I think of cars. Cars can be incredibly useful, fun, and life-changing if you understand how cars work and know how to drive safely. If you don’t know anything about driving or you tend to drive recklessly, you’re probably not ready to use cars.

Why do we prefer to watch a film we haven’t watched before but we want to listen to songs that we have heard hundreds of times?Anastasia S. (Athens, Greece)

Many films are the most fun the first time because a part of our brains loses itself in the plot and actually experiences what the characters are experiencing, to an extent. Part of why that’s so fun is the uncertainty, which makes it like a real-life adventure. Once we know what’s going to happen, the experience is less exciting for the same reason an adventure would be less exciting if you already knew how everything was gonna play out.

A song works the opposite way. Not knowing where the song is going can be intellectually interesting, but what our brain really wants to do is mentally dance with the song, and it can’t do that if it doesn’t know the “steps.” That’s why a catchy song is only okay the first time but it can quickly become orgasmic after we hear it a few times and our brains get the hang of it. Once our brain memorizes a song, the song has a special pathway carved in our heads and it feels great to light that pathway up by hearing the song (and if we don’t give our brain the chance, it might just start lighting up the pathway itself, and the song gets “stuck in your head”).4

Back to films, the thing is, a film isn’t just a plot. It can also be a piece of art, which is why in some cases, we do like to watch films (or TV shows) repeatedly (I’ve seen The Shawshank Redemption, Back to the Future, Shutter Island, and The Office (UK) like 9 times each).

What age range do you currently think you’re most likely to die (disregarding cryonics)?

Multiple choice:

  1. 70–100
  2. 100–125
  3. 125–150
  4. 150–250
  5. 250+

– Sean M. (New Orleans, LA)

The pessimistic part of my brain says: A) 70–100. My grandparents lived to 84, 87, 91, and good old Nana is still going strong at 95.5 My lifestyle is not a big enough step above theirs, healthwise, to imagine that I’ll beat them out by very much. And sure, medicine is improving dramatically, but then I look at charts like this one (click for bigger view):1

As promising as that data is, we don’t seem to be getting too far with the 100+ thing. Even the most freak outliers don’t crack 120. The human body seems programmed to shut itself down somewhere around the century mark, if it hasn’t already. Clearly something other than the current type of healthcare advances will be needed to crack through the natural human lifespan ceiling—it’ll take some deeper recoding of the human genome.

But then the optimistic part of my brain imagines what it would be like to show George Washington around 2021 and watch him die of shock at how magical everything was, and it thinks about how the accelerating returns on progress mean that the world of 70- to 100-year-old me might be equally shocking to people today, and so it answers D) 150–250.

The pessimistic part of my brain, looking at reality, makes a sad face and pats the optimistic part of my brain on the head.

The optimistic part of my brain, remembering how bad humans are at intuitively understanding exponential growth, pats the pessimistic part of my brain on the head.

How do you fall asleep?Anastasia S. (Athens, Greece)

When I can’t fall asleep, it’s either because my mind is caught in an anxious loop of some kind or my phone is keeping me up. The surefire fix to the anxious loop issue is to distract my mind with something else.

But what that something else is is important. If I start texting or scrolling around social media or brainstorming / researching for work or playing an addictive iPhone game, that’ll just make me even less likely to sleep. Other activities, for whatever reason, seem to have the opposite effect and put me right to sleep. For me, what’s effective is reading in the dark on a Kindle on dark mode, listening to a podcast or audiobook,6 doing a crossword puzzle on my phone, or as a last resort, YouTube videos, which work for the same reason it’s so easy to fall asleep in front of the TV.

The problem with this is that most of these involve my phone, which also has all of those things that are great at keeping me up. Worse, when I wake up next to my phone, I inevitably start my day by getting sucked into inane phone stuff. This isn’t just a time-waster—the grown-up-ness with which I start my day usually sets the tone for the whole day. And the morning is often when some of the best insights pop up for me—if they have space to pop up. The phone kills that space.

So I came up with a little scheme. Which brings me to:

What is the best permanent lifestyle change you made in your life?Elmar S. (Munich, Germany)

I dug an old iPhone 6 out of my drawer (I had tried to trade it in but I botched something with the “activation lock” whatever the hell that is and Apple sent it back to me) and this became my bed phone. No SIM card, not signed into iCloud, no apps except Kindle, iBooks, Downcast (podcasts), NYT Crosswords, YouTube, and some practical ones (alarm, calendar, notes and voice recorder for those morning insights). Then I leave my real phone in a different room, as far away and inconveniently located as possible. This has been pretty groundbreaking for me. I find that I actually look forward to saying bye to my normal phone and transitioning to the bed phone stage of the night. Bed phone still has worlds of fun in it—just the healthy-for-night/morning kinds of fun.7

Do you have an inner monologue?Malaika D. (Groningen, The Netherlands)

I actually wanna talk about this. I kind of think I don’t have an inner monologue. I have certain moments when I’m actually talking to myself in my head, but I find that 90% of the time my head is up in the clouds (which is most of the time) I have a lot of thoughts going on but no specific words in my head. I can’t tell if that’s what everyone is like or if I’m weird. The reason I wonder about it is that when people explain why you should meditate, they say something like, “it’s important to quiet the constant ‘chatter’ in your head.” And I always wonder whether “chatter” is just the word they’re using for the constant stream of thoughts or if there is actually a voice to those thoughts in most people’s head but not mine. Someone tell me what’s up.

Anyway I get your bigger point, Malaika, and I’m with you, but I don’t have a good answer beyond something obvious like “try meditation!” So hopefully a commenter can tell us both how to fix ourselves.

What really makes you angry? Ingrid M.

  • When I’m late and a person in front of me is going really slowly at the cashier
  • When I’m late in an Uber and the driver makes a wrong turn
  • When I’m late at the airport with no margin for error and TSA decides it’s the perfect time to search my bag and there are two other bags that need to be searched in front of mine and no one is searching any of the bags because the woman who searches bags is doing something else
  • When I go to a Broadway show and look at the little slip of paper in the Playbill and the main character is replaced by an understudy
  • When anyone needs me to do something that involves printing something
  • Bluetooth connectivity difficulties
  • When I get a new bottle of liquid soap and I can’t get the nozzle to pop up and instead it just spins around infuriatingly
  • Any other kind of packaging that’s hard to open
  • When my packages get stolen from my shit-ass building lobby
  • When I’m sleeping somewhere either with no A/C or bad A/C and it’s like 78º all night and I sleep 2 hours
  • When some gem of a photo op presents itself with my dog or something on the street and my phone camera freezes on the blurred screen
  • When I finally select the flight I want on Kayak and I’m relieved I got a good price and I go to buy it and it takes me to the airline site where I fill everything out and click “purchase” and it comes back with a message that says “the flight you’ve selected is not available.”
  • When people disagree with me about politics and think they’re right
  • When I bought a tin of fancy salt and the fucking lid was impossible to get off and I finally got it to snap off and the salt went everywhere
  • When I go to a site and select a menu item and the site finishes loading and the page jumps up just as I click and I select the wrong item and then I press back and select again and the same thing happens
  • Obscure name clues in crossword puzzles
  • When my opponent opens up a huge spot in Words With Friends and my letters are awful
  • When I’m at a breakfast restaurant and ask for Tabasco Sauce and the waiter remembers to bring it 0 out of 100 times
  • When I’m watching something riveting on an airplane TV and the captain makes a long, drawn-out announcement
  • When my tortoise shits on the floor while I’m not in the room and then tramps through it and gets shit on every square inch of the apartment floor and 3 inches up every wall
  • How long it takes an iPhone to turn back on when you plug it back in after it dies 
  • When I’m watching a movie with someone and I’ve seen it and they haven’t and they talk or look at their phone during an important moment
  • Sandwiches or burgers with hard, thick bread
  • When I’m in the car with my sisters and they think it’s an okay thing to blast their inane songs
  • When an apartment building puts a sign up that says “Please keep noise down between 10pm and 7am” because no one cares about late-night people (early riser privilege!)
  • The 99-year-old technology at my mom’s house
  • Websites that won’t let you go back – you just keep hitting the “back” button and it keeps refreshing the current page
  • When I get delivery food that includes fries and instead of a little container of ketchup, they give me a bunch of tiny packets
  • When I ask someone for the address where I’m going and they tell me directions instead of just giving me the address to put in my phone
  • When I go on vacation with people who want to wake up early and fill the day with icky activities
  • Jeans with button flies

Are we bigger than we are small, or smaller than we are big?Jarhead (Toronto, Canada)

Biologically, we’re definitely bigger than we are small. A typical blue whale is about 15 times the length of a human and around 2,500 times the mass. A human compared to microbes is many orders of magnitude larger. We’re less big amongst mammals, but even there we’re bigger than we are small. A human is about 35 times the length of the smallest mammal—the adorable bumblebee bat—and 40,000 times more massive.

Moving beyond the realm of biology—if we consider ourselves in relation to well-understood objects, we might make our endpoints a proton (10-16m) and the sun (108m), in which case we’re much closer to the size of the sun than the size of a proton. Big again. But if we use the Milky Way (1020m) as our upper endpoint, then we become smaller than we are big.

Then there’s the whole range of size. According to my Universe in a Nutshell app (plug!), the smallest known unit of space, the Planck length (maybe our universe’s pixel size), is about 10-35m. The largest space we can see is the observable universe, which is around 1026m range. If those are our endpoints, the midpoint between them would be a bit smaller than the width of a human hair—making us bigger than we are small.

But the observable universe is probably only a tiny piece of the full universe, and then there’s the multiverse if that’s a thing. So the real upper endpoint is probably high enough, if it exists at all, to make us much smaller than we are big.

My takeaway here is that we’re extremely middling when it comes to size, which I guess isn’t the worst thing to be.

How do I get over a breakup if I’m still in love?Anon

There’s no way to make an excruciating loss not excruciating except time, and I’m sorry to hear about the excruciatingness you’re going through.

Maybe it’ll help to remember that everyone you know, everyone you see on the street, everyone who’s ever lived in every place and time, has probably been there too or will be there in the future—because excruciating loss is an unfortunate staple of the human experience.

It might also help to remember that the part of you that feels like this wound will never heal is almost definitely wrong, and being wrong about that is also a staple of the human experience. Make that part of you write a letter to yourself, expressing how it feels. It’ll be fun to read that letter later, when you’re totally in love with someone new.

When parking, if both options are available, do you pull into the spot or back in? – Brighid D. (Manchester, NH)

Pulling in forward is Present You living their best life and treating Future You like their assistant. Backing in is Present You acting like Future You’s assistant. Pulling forward out of a spot you previously backed into is a highly luxurious experience, but as a procrastinator type whose jam it is to fuck over Future Tim, a rare one for me.

What is the coolest magic trick that you’ve seen?Abhinav P. (Jaipur, Rajasthan, India)

Professional magic is by far the most underrated form of entertainment. Anytime I hear about a new magic show in NYC getting buzz, I buy tickets (magic over video can also be surprisingly great—check out this incredible show).

The most inexplicable trick I’ve seen was actually one where I happened to be the chosen subject from the audience. This guy (a “mentalist” not a magician whatever that means) had me go into my phone contacts and scroll and stop randomly somewhere and then remember where my finger was. It was on a friend named Lucy. He told me to put the phone away and concentrate on the name. He then told some fictional story and towards the end revealed that the main character’s name was Lucy. There was no way he could see the phone at any point, and having held it close to me, I’m almost sure no one behind me could see it either. Later in the night he correctly guessed my friend’s ATM PIN number. Nothing he did was okay. I’m upset just talking about this.

Why do you live in NYC?Yertle T. (New York, NY)

NYC is an extreme place. It’s great at being exceptional and it’s great at being awful. It’s a high-priced filth bucket with great weather 25% of the time. It’s supposedly this world-leading city and yet it’s often behind the innovation curve and feels less futuristic than many other cities. The restaurants are world-class but it can also sometimes be hard to find a fresh salad for lunch. I could go on.

But it’s also a place where within a 20-minute walk of my apartment I can find every cuisine in the world, every type of art, every kind of shop, and a million different cultural experiences (many in secret underground nooks). It feels like the entire world is crammed into this city.

Among US cities, it’s not #1 for tech (SF), entertainment (LA), politics (DC), medicine (Boston), or a handful of other major industries. But it’s at least top 5 in every industry. NYC has breadth like nowhere else I know (at least in the US). This is especially appealing to me since I like to dig into a lot of totally different areas with my writing.

On a me-specific level, it’s a place where a large portion of my friends and acquaintances live, and of those who don’t live here, a large portion come through the city at least once a year. Nowhere other than NYC would I be able to get this level of in-person contact with such a large percentage of people I care about. (It’s also a quick trip to Boston, where much of my family lives.)

Finally, I really like the historical aspect. 300 years of human ingenuity gives a place a lot of character (I know that sounds paltry to non-Americans but it’s a big deal here!). Every street has an epic story to it. It makes the city like a big history museum to explore, and I like knowing that I’ll never even scratch the surface.

The awful things about NYC suck. A lot. But for me at least, the good things make living here a clear net positive.

How are you? Just checking in.Jake E. (Kristiansand, Norway)

Besides the giant dark “I gotta finish this book” cloud hovering over my entire existence and preventing me from being present or content in any moment ever, great!

What is the silliest thing you have placed on top of your tortoise?Juan

For his 14th birthday, we threw a party for Winston and tied a string around his shell with a helium balloon attached. This was a great way to make sure no one stepped on him because the balloon was at eye level, like another guest at the party. Anyway he doesn’t like parties so he moseyed his way into some little private cove, thinking no one would know where he was, not realizing there was a very obvious balloon giving him away.

What should one do if a piece of media (book or movie or song) that holds some nostalgic value to you turns out to have been created by someone who’s a ‘bad’ human being?Anoushka D. (Delhi, India)

I think in most cases, we should feel fine loving the art we love, regardless of who the artist is, what they did, or what they believed. John Lennon was physically abusive in his early relationships. Picasso and Jackson Pollock were abusive husbands. Walt Disney wasn’t a fan of the Jews, nor is Cat Stevens. Ellen DeGeneres was a dick to her staff. Norman Mailer stabbed his wife. I could have listed 1,000 of these because artists are often messed up, unstable people who do or say bad things (and because most people secretly hold deep-down beliefs you would disapprove of if you knew about them). That a lot of great art emerges from troubled minds shouldn’t be a surprise or invalidate the art as great art to be enjoyed—at least not to me.

In many cases, we’re also talking about artists who lived in different times—times when your own ancestors who lived then almost certainly were doing or saying some things that would make them “bad people” by today’s standards.

For those who generally agree with me about this, there might still be exceptions. Maybe an important part of why you liked The Cosby Show was the belief that Bill Cosby really was a lot like Cliff Huxtable, and knowing what you know now, the show loses its charm. I just find those to be the rare exceptions, not the rule.

Finally, I would say there are two okay views to have here: 1) my view, that you can enjoy art by people you disapprove of, and 2) the opposite view, that not liking the artist ruins the art. What’s not an okay view is 3) “Art by a person I disapprove of should be banned so that no one is allowed to consume it, and any platform that doesn’t ban it should be punished.” There’s way too much #3 going on right now.

What countries were your absolute favorite travel experiences? Samantha K. (Singapore)

When I was 20, I took a solo backpacking trip to Thailand and China and became infatuated with traveling. Since then (covid notwithstanding), I’ve tried to visit at least two new places every year. Here are some of my favorite travel experiences and best recommendations (most can be done on a backpacker’s budget):

Taking a commuter boat for three days down the Amazon from Belem to Manaus (Northern Brazil), sleeping in a mess of hammocks and looking out at the little river communities along the way.

Riding the Trans-Siberian railway from Moscow to Krasnoyarsk, looking out the window, making friends with passengers, and seeing how the political views changed the further east we got (more on that trip here).

Driving around desolate parts of Utah national parks, and sleeping every night outside the car on the edge of a canyon and waking up to the best view ever.

Staying with a family who lives in a yurt on the edge of the alpine Lake Song-Kul in Kyrgyzstan, spending the day in silence tagging along with the non-English-speaking shepherd as he did his thing with the sheep up on the mountain, and watching their weekly horse race.

Driving around Southern Italy and stopping for lunch in small walled villages on the tops of hills and waving to window nonnas.

The Yangon New Year’s Water Festival in Myanmar. Good god. We got invited onto the back of a truck with a bunch of locals, and the truck proceeded to drive around the city for five hours while we got absolutely wrecked by power hoses.

Driving from Dubai to Southern UAE and camping out on the softest dunes ever.

Going to Gen Yamamoto’s bar in Tokyo for six of the fanciest little cocktails imaginable (he’s kind of the Jiro of cocktails) over two amazing hours.8 Also just the entire country of Japan in general.

Taking a boat two hours from a small Greenlandic town to a 46-person village and doing a stay with the town grandmother. More on that trip here.

How can I become a higher-rung thinker? Avery H. (Zeeland, MI)

(If you don’t know what “high-rung” means, check out chapters 7 and 8 of The Story of Us.)

To borrow a Paul Graham suggestion, keep your identity small. High-rung thinking isn’t some fancy thing. It’s just being self-aware about what you know and what you don’t know—about staying close to the humility sweet spot.

One of the biggest impediments to this is when you start to identify with certain beliefs, stances, or ideologies. Once that happens, your Primitive Mind enters the equation and will do whatever possible to keep you from changing your mind, which cripples your ability to learn. Keeping your identity small is hugely liberating, and a lot less stressful. When your identity is small, you have nothing to cling onto and you can just relax and explore. So start by doing a self-audit and figuring out which ideas you’ve come to hold sacred—we all do this, it’s human—and remind yourself that they’re just ideas, they’re not you.

What are your favorite podcasts? Laura B. (Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

Currently hooked on Dan Carlin’s Hardcore History. 100 people recommended it to me and I kept putting it off and finally listened to the 6-part WWI series and that was that for me. Went back to episode 1 and went through chronologically, currently up to episode 42 and loving every minute. History is so incredibly riveting if told by the right person, and Dan is the right person.

What is your favorite form of transportation? – Sidhi (San Francisco, CA)

Without question the hoverboard. A few years ago, I was walking in NY and some guy passed by with one and I accosted him and asked him what the fuck that incredibly fun-looking thing was. He told me he actually sells them and gave me his info. A few days later I was the weird guy rolling around NY like a futuristic nerd, having the time of my life. I got really good at it and impressed lots of strangers and everything was great. Then, after a few weeks, the battery, though appearing to be half full, suddenly died and I wiped out in the middle of the street mortifyingly. I carried the board home and charged it up and pretended like nothing had happened and kept riding around. Then a few days later the battery died again out of nowhere and I wiped out mortifyingly in the street again. Turns out I had bought a cheap Chinese-made knockoff without realizing it. Bummer.

I was gonna get a new one, this time online with some research and not from some shady fuck I met on the street—but right around that time, NY decided it didn’t know what a hoverboard was and didn’t know how to categorize it or whether it should need a license or whether they should go in the bike lane or sidewalk and just shrugged and banned them. Disappointing all around.

If I time machined to 2040, one of the things I’d hope to see would be lots of people traveling around on fun hands-free toys like that.

How do you feel about advertisements? Do they annoy you, or are you enticed about what they’re trying to sell to you? – Fred M. (Chicago, IL)

I love targeted ads, when the AI is good enough. The problem with targeted ads is normally they’re not really good at targeting, so they’re useless and annoying. But Instagram has gotten pretty good at it and now I own a gravity blanket, a moon pod, stretchy jeans, a great hoodie, and like 19 fidget toys and physics toys and other stupid things that make me happy. Buying dumb shit you like is a good thing to do because you’re supporting small businesses (this is the story I tell myself), and effective targeted ads connect supply and demand in an optimal, nuanced way. I hope down the road the targeting gets so good that ads will pop up and be like “your dad’s birthday is coming up, here are five great options for him that we know he wants—click your favorite and it’ll arrive to him, gift-wrapped, on his birthday!”

I know I’m supposed to feel the opposite way about all of this because it’s creepy and non-privacy-y, but I’m gonna be dead at some point for trillions of years so who cares if big companies are manipulating my simple psychology for profit, if it brings me joy?

If you were forced to live in a country outside of the top 50 for 5 years, which country would it be and why? Dom W. (New York, NY)

If you ask me when I’m feeling energetic and ambitious, I’d say Nigeria. After visiting there in 2014, I came away feeling excited. With over 200 million people, it’s the 6th-most populous nation, and Lagos is a massive metropolis bustling with energy—somewhere I wouldn’t get bored and where I could find lots of outlets for my own projects.

But Nigeria would also be a hectic choice, and a hard place to live at times, so if you ask me when I’m tired, it would probably seem a bit “much” for a five year stint. In that mood, I’d choose Laos. Never been, but it looks insanely beautiful and the food would make me happy.

What is the best piece of advice you have ever received? – Laura H. (New York, NY)

I met Chris Anderson, the head of TED, in 2015. He had read a few WBW posts and offered me the opportunity to give a TED Talk at the 2016 conference (which was six months away). Immediately full of both gratitude/excitement and dread/anxiety, I asked him if it might be better to wait a couple years until I had some more speaking experience. He paused thoughtfully for a few seconds before saying, “There’s no time like the present.” I took his advice. Since then, his voice saying those words has popped into my head again and again during hard decisions, and I’m yet to regret following them.

Great advice is sometimes great because it’s totally original or framed in an original way. But, as in my story, a well-known platitude, at the perfect moment, can also make a huge impact. What makes Chris’s advice so valuable to me wasn’t that it was something new—it was that the lesson I learned from taking the advice in that particular moment turned a cliché into a mantra.

What are your thoughts on TikTok?Annie (Ontario, California)

For a long time, TikTok was this impossibly annoying-seeming thing that wouldn’t go away. Then my friend Isabelle started posting pro-nuclear-energy videos on TikTok, so I finally got the app to watch them. Then I got sucked in.

The thing is, the TikTok algorithm is really good. It knows me better than I know myself. I don’t follow any accounts on TikTok, I just go to the “For You” tab and start scrolling down the video stream TikTok has prepared for me, and the curation quality is strong.

Sometimes there are people being funny. Sometimes there are people doing pranks. There’s George and Hector and this squirrel and this drunk chicken and the bees lady. And then there are the trolls. People trolling their boyfriends and girlfriends and husbands and wives and cats and dogs and babies and teachers and customers. And a lot of people trolling their parents. TikTok isn’t for everyone. But it is for me.

I’ve now created a fun activity, where I “favorite” the best videos during a scroll and at some point beam my phone up to the TV to show my wife the favorites. Highly recommend this activity.

Are you a tabletop gamer?Ryan M. (Odessa, TX)

Of the staples, I love Scrabble and have played like 1,000 games of Words With Friends (which has in turn fucked up my Scrabble game). I have periodic chess phases, though they never last long enough for me to become not bad (my chess.com rating peaked in the 900s during my last bout).

My sister is always upsettingly pushing new games on me, which I first resist and then become addicted to. Recently, she’s gotten me into Coup and Codenames (both delightful). I’ve dipped my toe into the Polytopia wormhole and am scared about the possibilities. Not a tabletop game, but a consistent winner with groups is what my friends and I call the Name Game (variations are called Celebrity or Fishbowl)—rules in this footnote.9

What supplements or multivitamins do you take?Stacey W. (Perth, Australia)

I usually take some kind of one-a-day multivitamin that I deep down believe does nothing but I take it just in case. And a spoonful of Metamucil every morning so I can be happy.

And then I like to experiment with work/productivity supplements. I’ve recently been trying a combination of gingko biloba and lion’s mane supplements. I’ve also been trying out Qualia Mind, made by Flow Genome Project, but just started so no verdict yet. Always open to suggestions, so let me know if you use anything that works well for you!

What’s a recent embarrassing and/or interesting rabbit hole you’ve found yourself going down semi-unintentionally?Jace L. (Tulare, CA)

I have a love-hate relationship with YouTube. Love the videos, hate myself. The problem is, YouTube spirals happen for me almost exclusively when I’m in the Dark Playground—that place you’re in when you should be working but you’re not working. Either someone sends me a YouTube link or I go there for genuine research purposes—and then the algorithm pulls me into the pit.

Some of these pits are at least productive, when I’m learning something about science or history. Others at least are high quality art or comedy or something else interesting.

But then there are the dark moments. When nothing good at all is happening. In order to answer Jace’s question, I decided to play a dangerous game: lifting off the hood of my YouTube history and seeing, staring me in the face, all the places I’ve been. Some of the more disturbing finds from the past few years (each spiral goes up chronologically, with the first video I watched at the bottom):

Here’s a typical run:

Also typical:

One day, I spent a lot of time with this man while he hurt himself:

This day started with string quartet covers before things got Jewy:

Sorry not sorry:

Who needs to work when you have Hitler!

Needed a drink at the end of this:

The Bushmen and the Pygmies are my friends and not yours:

Not sure what happened here:

No regrets:

Not proud of this:

Can’t explain this:

Not useful:

Possibly the strangest sequence I found:

Would you rather be 11 feet tall or nine inches tall?Alexander R. (Windhoek, Namibia)

Surprisingly hard one. 11 feet seems like the obvious answer. You’re a full “thing” everywhere you go and everyone would flip out, but then they’d get used to it and you could still have an almost normal life. You could still have an almost normal house. You could for sure play in the NBA. You could still have sex.

No one is fucking a nine-inch tall person. And you couldn’t go anywhere without everyone you’re about to see being fully prepped ahead of time for the situation. Your house would be a joke. That said, there would be benefits. You could sneak into anything and hide very easily. Like you could probably smuggle yourself on a plane to Russia without anyone noticing, sneak into the Kremlin, and listen in on the most secretive Putin meetings while hiding behind the curtains or somewhere. But then what?

So I guess my answer is that the nine-inch-tall option would be very fun for a while but then when you got bored of the perks, you’d be confronted with your life as a pencil person and would probably regret the choice. So I’d go with 11 feet tall.

Can you suggest methods for dealing with the crushing realization that people you used to have a lot of respect for don’t hold the principles/values you thought they did and therefore might no longer be worthy of your respect? Especially close people like parents, teachers, mentors, and religious leaders?JD I. (Charleston, SC)

I find this to be a pretty reliable graph:

The better I get to know people I’ve previously demonized, the more pleasantly surprised I am. The better I get to know people I’ve previously lionized, the more disappointed I become. This makes sense, because people are neither demons nor angels—they’re humans. The crushing realization you’re experiencing is probably less some awful truths you’re learning about people you admire and more a truth you’re seeing about humans in general. Even the people you look up to are fallible and flawed—but that doesn’t mean they can’t also be worthy of your love and respect.

With all that in mind, I’d consider three things:

First, take a hard look at ways you feel these people are disappointing you, and try asking whether your own judgments might be off. On more than one occasion, I’ve scoffed at those I once considered wise only to later realize that they weren’t all that wrong after all.

Second, think about all the ways a human can be good and wise, and you’ll be reminded of certain ways these people are still very much worthy of your admiration. Focusing on those areas can restore the respect you want to feel towards them.

Finally, where you do firmly believe you have something right that they don’t, remember that wisdom is a multi-generational collaboration. When mentorship works, it raises mentees to be wiser than the mentor—mentees who can then be even better mentors to the next generation. This is how the wisdom trend slopes continually upwards. If your mentors are forever wiser than you, they failed as mentors. So when you do feel wiser, it’s not a bad thing—it means it’s your turn to take the wisdom torch and try to bring it to the next level.

What are your most left-wing, and most right-wing, political positions?Hannah J. (London, UK)

At the moment I’m feeling progressive about the legalization of drugs and sex work (in both cases, the black markets that result from illegality seem to cause more harm than the thing itself), and conservative about wanting the government to be smaller (bigger government seems to correlate with both less competence and more corruption).

Do you plan to write updates for the AI and SpaceX posts? – Matt J. (Sartell, MN)

Yes and yes. SpaceX first.

What conspiracy theory do you think is most probably true?Maja (Ottawa, Canada)

One that I’ve been considering (only a hunch, no actual info) is that big alcohol companies (Anheuser-Busch, etc.) are the new big tobacco companies (Philip Morris, etc.). And instead of trying to suppress evidence that cigarettes are disastrous for your health, the big alcohol companies need to keep all the other fun drugs stigmatized and illegal—and with tens of billions of dollars at stake, they’ll spend billions of dollars to keep the status quo the way it is.

When I grew up, the rules were clear: if a party is a cool party, it has alcohol at it, and if you’re a cool person, you drink alcohol. If your party doesn’t have alcohol, it’s not a cool party, and if you don’t drink alcohol, you’re not a cool person. If you take a step back and think about it, that’s kinda weird. This one particular drug, of so many, has been deemed A) the socially acceptable, non-stigmatized one, and B) the definition of cool. Meanwhile, alcohol is just an alright drug—probably a below average one—while also being one of the most dangerous and harmful ones. It makes no sense—until you remember that cigarettes made no sense either…

What’s your best advice for someone moving to NYC?Tessa C. (Kansas City, MO; living in Dublin, Ireland; moving to New York, NY)

Get rid of your stuff (or store it somewhere) unless you really love it. Small apartments can be cozy and great if you don’t have too much stuff.

Do all the touristy things (Statue of Liberty, etc.) while you’re still in the honeymoon phase, because if you don’t, you’ll never do them.

Look up a list of the best pizza places in the city and go to one a month until you’ve tried them all. Lucali and Paulie Gee’s are my top recs.

Look up lists like this and actually do the things. Nowhere has more amazing secret spots than NYC.

Why the King of Spades? And are his eyes always looking up that way?Hector F. (San Antonio, TX)

When I was tossing around potential names for the site, “Miniature King” was in the running. At least to me it was, before it was promptly vetoed by my wife / then girlfriend. But in the process, I had become attached to the visual I had in mind—something with a very small, very tyrannical king who was outraged about being the non-consensual mascot of a random blog. So when it was time to design the eventual site, I stuck with the king as the mascot. He’s looking up because he’s rolling his eyes at the concept of being the WBW mascot and because he’s upset about the little men that are marching up onto his head, which is not a very dignified thing to be happening to a great tyrant king.

What’s a view/opinion you were holding for a long time but changed recently (let’s say in the last few years)?Mike L. (Singapore)

Religion being a generally bad thing overall. Obviously religion can be, and often is, a bad thing that does more harm than good. But what’s become more clear to me is that we’re a religious species, period, and while today’s prominent religions are certainly flawed, the political religions of history or today are often even worse.

It just doesn’t seem like we’re a species that’s ready for widespread atheism quite yet. Until things change, traditional religions are probably more helpful than they are harmful. Still thinking about this one.

How do you balance reading the news/staying up to date on current events with avoiding burnout and the feeling that everything is terrible all the time and nothing you do matters so why bother? – Fenway D. (Greensboro, NC)

A lot of what used to be news has morphed into propaganda, and there’s no shame in ignoring propaganda. The really big stuff will filter its way to you no matter what you do.

If you do want to keep up with the news, it also doesn’t have to happen directly, via the media. Listening regularly to a few good interview-style podcasts, for example, can be a great way to get a feel for the big issues going on in a more indirect way.

As far as feeling like nothing you do matters, I actually think that’s an intuitive but incorrect assumption. In a moment when so many people are afraid to express their real views in public, doing so can make a real difference.

You often mention being inspired and challenged by interesting conversations. How have you increased the proportion and/or frequency of these conversations in your life? – Andrew N. (London, UK)

One thing that can go a long way: see the people you really like talking to more frequently. This is about more than the obvious point that doing so literally increases the cumulative time you’ll talk to them: When you don’t see someone frequently enough, every time you do hang out ends up being a big catch-up, where both of you update the other on your lives. This doesn’t seem like a problem until you consider that the whole relationship now mostly consists of catching each other up (and reminiscing about old times because you’re not making any new times together). This isn’t actually hanging out. Hanging out means shooting the shit about whatever’s on your mind and exploring new topics together. If I haven’t seen someone in forever and then they’re in town for a week and I see them twice, it’s the second hangout, with the catch-up out of the way, where the more interesting conversation usually happens.10

Two friends and I started zoom-chatting every Friday during covid and it just turned into a thing that now happens once a week, and the conversations are great because they’re free of big-picture catch-up—they’re either about ongoing keeping up, or more often, just fun divergent conversation about third-party topics. If you have anyone you like talking to enough to do it a few times every month, try to make that happen.

Do you have some tips of where and/or how to meet people who tend to think more high-rung, both online and in real life? Or is it more about recognizing them scattered throughout our lives?Steven D. (Zavantem, Brussels, Belgium)

Where’s the entrance to the idea labs? I’m a teenager and right now I’m trying to accumulate knowledge and skills as much as I can. There are quite a few people who inspire me and they all seem to be in a network of other smart/amazing people. The question is – how do you find other people who want to grow and exchange knowledge?Mikhail I. (Moscow, Russia)

Three ideas:

1) Mine people you already know for hidden high-rung-ness. Sometimes two people get stuck in a dynamic where both feel like they have to agree with each other, which is kind of boring and stressful and makes it hard to dig deep and explore anything—but neither one actually prefers it to be this way. They’re just stuck in a social rut. In this case, all it might take is one person actually starting to say what they really think and being willing to break the “disagreement” ice, and the whole relationship can transform into something much more interesting and high rung. Of course, there are plenty of other times when an Echo Chamber dynamic is in place because one or both people very much want it to be that way, and an attempt by one party to snap out of that will go over badly (btw, this isn’t the end of the world—it just means that high-rung conversation won’t be a part of that relationship, you can still enjoy the rest of what it has to offer). If you do find that most of your existing relationships are stuck on the intellectual low rungs, you’ll want to supplement things with some new friendships that can better indulge your intellect. This is where the other two points come in.

2) Collect high-rungers you happen upon in the wild. Post-college-age people tend to be really bad at making new friends. But it doesn’t have to be this way. There will be moments—at work, at a dinner party, at some event—when you discover a super interesting-seeming person you really like talking to, and you wish you were friends with them. If you feel this way, there’s a decent chance they feel the same way about you. And if you can fight off your mammoth (who is irrationally horrified by the possibility you may put yourself out there and get rejected) and get in the habit of getting their phone number and sending a “great meeting you! would love to chat again sometime” text—and then if the response is positive, actually scheduling a coffee or lunch or drink (mammoth: “but what if they were just being polite!”), over time you’ll accumulate a whole new basket of high-rung brains to play with.11 It’s really easy to just not put yourself out there for new friendships as an adult, but those who do are usually rewarded.

3) Actively go out looking for high-rungers. This is the ickiest, most amorphous item, and I don’t have specific suggestions beyond: put yourself in high-rung environments whenever possible. That can mean the place you live, the place you work, the places you spend your free time, the forums you hang out in online, the events you go to. Speaking of which—

Do you plan to have another Wait But Hi?
– Fausto L. (Madrid, Spain)
– Mini (Perth, Australia)
– Sam W. (Raleigh, NC)
– Barbara P. (Budapest, Hungary)
– Kelvin J. (Turku, Finland)
– Chelsea I. (Perth, Australia)

Yes, definitely. Like everything Wait But Why, this has been on hold because of the Story of Us albatross, but the answer is yes. We consider “Wait But Hi” to be not a single event, or even a single type of event, but the “in-person” category of Wait But Why. The first Wait But Hi centered around a hypothesis that people who read WBW would probably like meeting other people who read WBW, and the event confirmed it. Alicia, Andrew, and I have had many brainstorms about other creative WBH formats, so stay tuned.

What animal would you shrink down to pocket size (or the size of a coke can) to keep as a pet?Tandice U. (New York, NY)

Elephant.

Most other animals already have a mini version (a small tiger or lion is basically a kitten, small alligator is a gecko, small buffalo is like half the weird little dogs I see on the street). But there’s nothing like a small elephant. Plus they’re usually so big so it’s extra funny. Plus they’re smart and have great personalities. And they live like 80 years. The ideal miniature pet.

Who is your favorite Tim?Tim (Auckland, New Zealand)

Tim Berners-Lee

Runner-up: Tim Duncan

If you had power to dictate what should be taught in schools—things that everyone had to master before they get to enter adulthood—what would you add to the curriculum?Audrey T. (Toronto, Canada)

General (should be part of many classes):

  • Independent, first-principles thinking
  • How to argue and debate productively
  • How to be an effective learner
  • Intellectual humility
  • Independent problem-solving skills, through practice

Subject-specific:

  • Basic math
  • Basic science, and more importantly, a lot of practice with the scientific method
  • Basic civics
  • Basic money management
  • Enough writing and speaking skills to be an effective communicator
  • Enough history to understand why fundamental liberal rights were invented and how precious they are
  • Older students should be able to go deeper in the areas they feel most drawn to or, if resources allow, take electives where they can learn a more specific skill
  • Indoctrination in the teacher’s particular political ideology
  • Oh wait definitely not that last one

I just started a new relationship. How do I not fuck it up and/or how do I make love stay? – Robert B. (Denver, CO)

A general suggestion: Have your mantra be “I’m gonna show them exactly who I really am and if it turns out they don’t like it, they’re not the right person for me anyway.” Takes all the pressure off.

A specific suggestion: Plan fun, creative, exciting “mystery dates” and refuse to tell them what the plan is until they get there. A mystery date can be any kind of experience or activity—just something outside the box.

Do you think, overall, covid accelerated progress of the human colossus or slowed down progress of the human colossus?Sean M. (New Orleans, LA)

Desperate times call for desperate measures and desperate measures have a knack for wildly accelerating progress and innovation. At least in the modern era, this phenomenon usually outweighs the destruction and lost time caused by desperate times. The classic example would be World War II, which is why we have the computer, the nuclear weapon, and the moon landing—or at least why we got those things as quickly as we did.

Covid certainly slowed down progress in some ways—but a ton of learning and innovation happened in the past year that may have set us way forward in some very important areas. The average person in 1945 knew that the war had advanced certain technologies, but few could have foreseen the amazing ways those advances would be applied in the decades to come. If something like mRNA technology has just taken a major leap forward, the people of 2050 might have covid to thank for some of their most groundbreaking biotech.

Are you optimistic about the future of the United States?Stephanie W. (Washington, D.C.)

All signs point to “no”. But American history is full of moments when all signs pointed to no. So yes?

What do you hope Gen Z does with the world?Anne Z. (Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada)

Makes political tribalism a lame thing for lame old people.

If you were an omnipotent god for 24 hours, what would you do? After the 24 hours, you’d turn back into your regular self but still remember that day.Lena S. (Munich, Germany)

“Omnipotent god” is a very legit amount of power. Here’s what I’d do:

Restore the level of carbon in the carbon cycle to 1850 levels and invent some insanely powerful and efficient, cheap-to-make, totally safe nuclear fusion reactor that you could fuel with garbage like the Delorean in Back to the Future 2, and put instructions for how to make it online.

Randomly select a color from the Pantone deck and make all human skin that color.

Invent an easy, cheap way to make succulent lab-grown meat and put the instructions online.

Make the U.S. government a parliamentary system.

Learn the deal with the Fermi Paradox.

Learn the deal with dark matter.

Tribalism out. Teleportation in.

Tweak the human body so that Oreos and Chinese food are both perfect health food.

All couches are forever incredibly comfortable and like an L-couch except the long part of the L extends across the whole couch, so it’s like a king bed.

All internet is free and fast forever.

All human brains are on a mild dose of MDMA at all times.

Terraform Mars to Earth-like perfection with a snap of my omnipotent fingers. Make a few backup copies of Elon that activate one by one if he dies or gets bored. Incept the idea in Elon’s head that Tim Urban absolutely must be on the first voyage to Mars but not to do any icky work, just to blog about the experience.

Perfect anti-aging technology so everyone can revert their body to any age they prefer and stay there until they’re bored enough of living they’re ready to die. Put instructions for the technology I used to make Elon backups online so everyone can make backups of themselves in case they die in an accident. Use my omnipotence to ensure that all backups are in fact still “you.” All backups are constantly updated to mirror the main version, and only one can be activated one at a time.

All sentences in articles or tweets that are untrue automatically appear in red block letters.

My book is done and everyone agrees it’s just “a really good point.”

My dog is perfectly trained, no longer needs to eat or drink or pee or shit, bathes herself once a week, lives forever, and can be switched off when we go on vacation.

All my shrunk t-shirts are unshrunk and permanently unshrinkable.

There’s a Dan Carlin episode for everything that’s ever happened and Hamilton goes all the way through to today, instead of stopping in like 1802.

Rainbows are climbable and slidable. Clouds are jumpable.

All ocean and pool water is 95 degrees F. All hot tubs 104.

Paper straws are banned, plastic straws are back.

Tweak the human body so exercise makes you fat and depressed and stagnation makes you fit and happy.

Create a benevolent superintelligent AI that “just gets it.” This AI ensures that all future AI is friendly and that no one is too big of a dick. The AI is also in charge of making sure that none of my new rules or inventions backfires in unexpected ways.

Who is your dog?Tim Urban (New York, NY)

Glad you asked!

What are your thoughts on Elon’s controversial side?Ekin K. (Izmir, Turkey)

It emerges from the same quality that invents new things, challenges conventions, and changes the world: extreme originality, whether people like it or not. So I’m all for it.

How was Burning Man?Zenon S. (Columbus, MI)

Roughly 100X cooler and more fun than I had expected.

Why hasn’t anyone created something between a cat and a dog? What would it be called?Leo L. (London, UK)

How has writing Story of Us changed you personally?Ankit L. (Pune, India)

Writing the Story of Us—first as a series and now as a book—has totally reshaped the way I think. The core mental model in the book has become a lens I use constantly. I’ve also learned a lot about politics, history, psychology, and sociology that I didn’t know before. My goal with the book is to take the most important parts of both the framework and the things I’ve learned and package it in a way that can resonate with many different kinds of minds and actually stick. I want people who read the book to feel 20 years from now like it still impacts the way they think.

There were lots of mailbag questions about both the series and the book, but given that every month, as I get closer to the finish line, what the best plan is seems to shift, I’ll leave it at that big-picture point for now.

What’s your favorite thing that has come about because of something you’ve written?Laura D. (Hampshire, UK)

Several people have told me that they moved closer to their family after reading The Tail End. That’s a big deal!

I’ve been a Patreon for like 4 years now. But now that you will be releasing a book, will you still need my support? What are your plans for the future?Kyros J.(Barcelona, Spain)

Here’s how I think about Patreon, from our side:

Patreon is a means of creative freedom. Without Patreon, money would be a sizable part of our decision-making process. We’d have to take on sponsorships, sell products, and use paywalls, whether we felt good about it or not. Patreon allows us to do whatever we think actually makes sense for us and what we’re trying to do. It allows us to make a big list of potential projects and to prioritize them based on what we’re most excited about and what we think is the most important, not based on what will make the most money. Patreon means that we’ll do some projects that make money and others that won’t, and we don’t have to worry too much about which ones are which. It allows us to start a podcast without a sponsor and have the “we’ll get a sponsor if and when it feels right” attitude. It allows us to turn the Story of Us into a book, because it makes sense in this case, and to have turned down opportunities to make other post series into books, because it wasn’t something we felt made sense. It allows us to email readers about a product in our store only when we’re actually excited to tell them about that product. Having money as a secondary concern is an unbelievable creative luxury and one that makes Wait But Why a better place.

Here’s how I think about Patreon, from your side:

The independent internet creator is a pretty new kind of thing, and I think we’re all still figuring out the best ways for that to work, financially. Patreon gives regular readers three options:

1) I like this person’s work, and I’d like to pay something for it

2) I like this person’s work, and I’d like to pay something for it, but right now I can’t afford to

3) I like this person’s work, but it’s not something I want to pay for

The great thing about having a sizable audience is that if a small portion of our readers end up in Category 1, we’re covered. So far, that’s exactly what’s happened. Category 1 readers have combined to be an incredibly important support for us and provide that treasured creative freedom I talked about.

But that also means that we’re totally cool with Categories 2 and 3.

People in Category 2, who would like to support us but don’t have the budget to spare: not only is that okay, but please know that the last thing I want is for WBW support to be an uncomfortable or stressful expense in your life. I love the idea of WBW being free for people who are only able to consume free content at a given time in their lives.

People in Category 3, who simply prefer to put their dollars towards other causes, please continue doing so. This is the cool thing about the voluntary donation model—only some people have to do it for it to work perfectly. Category 1 has everyone else covered.

If you’ve been a Category 1 supporter of ours, huge hug, we love you, and we’re endlessly grateful. You should also never feel weird or guilty about stopping. Supporting us doesn’t have to mean supporting us forever. Once a Category 1er, always a Category 1er, no matter when you stop.

Finally, Patreon is only one way to support WBW. There’s also buying stuff we sell and, probably most important, sharing WBW with others.

As for the future of Wait But Why:

At the moment, it’s hard to imagine a time when I will want to be doing anything other than creating new things on this platform. My “future topics list” is longer than I could ever get through in one life, and as long as I’m curious, I’ll be working my way through it.

Within that broader picture, there are a ton of fun possibilities. We plan to expand the platform from just writing to writing, audio, and video. We want to keep trying new things and new collaborations (like the app we made with Kurzgesagt). We want to dig in deeper with the community with more in-person events. We’ve sketched out plans for a new, much better site.

It’s been a slow few years as I’ve worked on a single, big project, but my excitement and energy have never been higher. I hope I’m still making good things when I’m 80 and I hope you’re still here with me.

—————

If you like Wait But Why, sign up for our unannoying-I-promise email list and we’ll send you new posts when they come out.

To support Wait But Why, visit our Patreon page.

For my daily musings, follow WBW on Twitter and Instagram.

—————

Other places to go:

Mailbag #1

The Travel Series

The Procrastination Matrix


  1. Depending on how transparent viruses are, we might need to stack a bunch of these virus squares to make it opaque enough to see, which would raise the total number of viruses needed into the millions or even billions.

  2. The NIH does note that most of the human cells are red blood cells (a further rabbit hole reminded me that red blood cells look like delicious gummy candy), and they admit that red blood cells are kind of just “bags full of hemoglobin.” If you only count human cells with a nucleus, the ratio is 10 bacteria for every human cell.

  3. Zachary got more than he bargained for here.

  4. As a one-time budding film composer, it used to be stressful playing the score I had written for the director the first time. They had inevitably become attached to their stupid temp score (the existing film scores directors put into the film before handing it over to the composer to write the original music) and were hearing mine for the first time, so they’d predictably (infuriatingly!) not like it on the first listen. I’d play it for them a few times and the next day, they’d listen again and usually would suddenly like it. Film scoring is annoying.

  5. Every time I call her, Nana asks me when my book will be done, and her new thing is telling me now that I’ll be very regretful if she dies before she gets to put it on her coffee table—thanks Nana!

  6. If you sleep in a bed with someone else, you probably can’t just listen out loud to stuff without bothering them. A single AirPod solves the problem for me—and you can just take it out when you’re drifting off and that pauses the podcast (or video).

  7. A more austere version of this is just having books or a Kindle in the bedroom and phone elsewhere. But I like the variety the bed phone gives me.

  8. Email office@genyamamoto.jp to make a reservation, at least a month before you’ll be in Tokyo.

  9. Minimum four people, max 15 or even a little higher. Two teams, everyone writes down names on little slips of paper, folds them and puts them into a big communal bowl (one name on each slip), and each team also has their own empty bowl. You want about 40 names total, so if it’s a 2-on-2 game, everyone should put 10 names in the bowl each. If it’s 5-on-5, everyone should do four names. Names can be celebrities, friends of the people playing, or famous fictional characters—you can go a little obscure but you want at least half of the group to know each name. There are three rounds. In the first round, Person 1 on Team A starts – they have one minute – they pick a name out of the bowl and say whatever they want (other than stupid cheats like saying ‘the name rhymes with Ill Pinton!’ and no doing impressions or pointing at anything – just verbal description) – when one of their teammates successfully calls out the name, they put the piece of paper into their team’s bowl and pick the next name. After a minute their turn is up and the name in their hand goes back into the big bowl. Teams alternate and who the name-picker is on each team alternates with each turn. When all the names are out, Round 1 is over. Names in each team’s bowl are tallied up and the score is written down. Then all the names go back into the big bowl. Round 2 is the same as round 1 except the name-picker can only say one word now. No facial expressions or anything. One word and then they have to go blank and hope it’s enough for their team to get it. Round 3 is like the other 2 rounds except no words now – just silent acting. Usually that’s the end but if you wanna get weird, bonus round 4 is the same as round 3 except the name-picker now has a bed sheet over their entire head and body, like a kid in a ghost costume. The team with the highest cumulative score in the 3 (or 4) rounds wins. Only other rule is that if in round 1, the name-picker doesn’t know the name, they can’t pass, so they can try to get it using other tricks “first name is the same name as the first U.S. president, etc.” or they can challenge. When a player challenges, the timer stops, they say the name, and whoever knows who that person is raises their hand. If fewer than half the other players know the name, the name-picker counts the name as a point and it goes into their team’s bowl, the timer is started where it left off, and the turn continues. If half or more of the people know the name, the other team gets that name in their bowl and the player’s turn then continues. Those who don’t know the name need to learn it then because in future rounds there are no challenges.

  10. It’s always an option to just skip the big catch-up with friends you don’t see very often, but that’s not great either because it’s hard to be close when you don’t know what’s going on with someone.

  11. A less risky option if your mammoth is flipping out is to invite the person to a gathering you’re organizing.

The post Mailbag #2 appeared first on Wait But Why.

  •  

The Trump-Biden Debate

In case you missed it, here’s a transcript of the first Trump-Biden Debate:

Chris Wallace: Good evening. I’m Chris Wallace and I welcome you to what I predict will be a very bad personal experience for me. There will be six 15-minute segments, each on a different topic. At the beginning of each segment, both candidates will get two uninterrupted minutes to respond. The remainder of the segment will be open discussion. The audience has agreed not to be trashy. Both campaigns have signed off on these rules, so for sure nothing will go wrong. And with that, let’s welcome the candidates.

[CANDIDATES ENTER]

Wallace: Let’s start with the Supreme Court. President Trump, you nominated Amy Coney Barrett to succeed the late Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the court. You say the Constitution is clear about your obligation to nominate someone to the court. Vice President Biden, you’ve called this an abuse of power. To start, why don’t you both explain your positions.

Trump: Amy Coney Barrett is a perfect nominee. Conservatives love her. Liberals love her. Chris Wallace loves her.

Biden: Amy Barrett would repeal the Affordable Care Act. And besides, the new thing is that you have to wait until after the election to nominate someone.

Trump: Not sure what you’re talking about, because last I checked a presidential term is four years, not three. You want to instate Communist medicine.

Biden: I don’t want to instate Communist medicine. I want to expand Obamacare.

Trump: Your party wants to instate Communist medicine, and you’re scared of them.

Biden: I may be scared of them but I am the Democrat Party now, so even if I was and still am scared of them, I’m not anymore. They’ll do what I say now. And how about Covid? The president killed 200,000 people. Roe v. Wade.

Trump: You would have killed 2 million people by not banning China. Not Roe v. Wade.

Wallace: K let’s go back to healthcare for a minute. Mr. President, over the past four years you have promised to replace and repeal Obamacare, but you have never in these four years come up—

Trump: Yes I have.

Wallace: with a plan—

Trump: Of course I have.

Wallace: to—

Trump: Of course I have.

Wallace: replace—

Trump: I got rid of the individual mandate.

Wallace: Oba—

Trump: The individual mandate was a joke.

Wallace: macare.

Trump: The individual mandate was the worst part of Obamacare.

Wallace: I am the moder—

Trump: The individual mandate sucks dick.

Wallace: I AM THE MODERATOR of this debate and I would like to be treated as such. You have never come up with a plan to replace Obamacare. So what is the Trump healthcare plan?

Trump: I’m cutting drug prices. Insulin is like water.

Wallace: Uh huh. How about you Joe? Why do you want to end private insurance?

Biden: I don’t want to end private insurance.

Trump: You’re literally friends with Bernie Sanders.

Biden: No I’m not. I want to—

Trump: You’re a piece of shit Joe.

Biden: I want to make sure—

Trump: A sad little man.

Wallace: Stop picking on Joe, Mr. President.

Trump: You care deeply about Bernie Sanders. You like Communist medicine. Anyway I asked the doctors and they said Obamacare is a disaster.

Biden: He doesn’t have a plan.

Wallace: Changing gears, Joe some of your colleagues are talking about ending the filibuster and packing the court. What’s your stance on that?

Biden: My stance is that voting is good. Americans should vote. It’s easy. You just go to the polling place, you wait in line, and then you go into the booth, and you push the little switch down for the candidate you want to vote for. Sometimes it’s not a switch.

Trump: You gonna pack the court, Joe? Tell us about how you’re gonna pack the court, Joe. The radical Left is pulling your puppet strings Joe. You and I both know it Joe.

Biden: Shut up, man.

Wallace: This is going well. Okay next segment. Covid-19. There have been more than 7 million cases in the United States and more than 200,000 have died. The question is, why should people trust you more than your opponent to handle this public health crisis?

Biden: 40,000 people a day contracting Covid. 200,000 people dead. He has no plan. He knew in February. He lied. He panicked. He complimented China. He has no plan. He’s playing golf.

Trump: I saved lives. It’s China’s fault. You wanted to let Chinese people come here. Dr. Fauci and all the Democrat governors said, “President Trump did a phenomenal job.” And they’re not the only ones. All of the other people said it too. “President Trump did a phenomenal job,” they all said. I did a phenomenal job. The gowns, the masks, the ventilators, you don’t know how to make a ventilator, the vaccine is here, any week now. You could never have done the job I did because you’re a random old man. You couldn’t even do swine flu. Swine flu is a disaster.

Biden: He panicked. People died. And more people are gonna die unless he gets a lot smarter—

Trump: Did you just use the word smart? You lied about going to college at Delaware State. You were the worst student at Delaware State. You’re a dumb fuck Joe. I know it. Chris Wallace knows it don’t you Chris.

Wallace:

Trump:

Biden:

Wallace: Mr. President, you have begun to increasingly question the effectiveness of masks. Are you not in favor of masks?

Trump: Masks are tremendous. I have a mask right here in my pocket. I wear masks when needed. Masks have said I’ve done a phenomenal job. Joe wears masks even when it makes no sense. He wears them when he’s 200 feet away from me. He wears a mask when he’s sleeping.

Wallace: Mr. Vice President, is that true?

Biden: If you wanna open a business, you gotta have a plan.

Wallace: Sir, I was asking about masks.

Biden: Oh masks? Sure, you gotta have a mask.

Wallace: Alright next segment. The economy. Mr. Trump, you go first.

Trump: It’s a big dick economy.

Biden: No.

Wallace: Okay how about taxes. Mr. President, apparently you pay $750 a year in taxes. There’s a girl my daughter knows who’s 15 and she works in a movie theater on Sundays and sells the candy. And she pays more than $750 a year in taxes. So is this true, Mr. President? How much did you pay in taxes in 2016 and 2017?

Trump: Miyyons.

Wallace: Miyyons, sir?

Trump: Miyyons and Biyyons. I don’t pay taxes because the Obama administration said I didn’t have to.

Wallace: Joe, what’s your plan for taxes?

Biden: I’m gonna build this economy. I’m gonna make jobs. We’re gonna buy American. We’re gonna buy American ships. American steel. American buildings. We handed him a booming economy and he blew it.

Wallace: But did you actually hand him a booming economy and did he actually blow it?

Biden: Sure, whatever. He talks about the art of the deal. China has perfected the art of the steal.

Trump: China buttered your son’s belly.

Biden: China did no such thing.

Trump: And then, Joe? You know what happened after that? Your son went to Moscow. And you know what happened there Joe? Moscow buttered your son’s belly.

Biden: Nothing happened there.

Trump: Sure did Joe. The mayor of Moscow’s wife. She buttered his belly slick.

Biden: You wanna talk about families Trump? How about your family. With their grease and their shoes. It’s not about families. It’s about the American people. It’s about families.

Trump: Oh and how about Ukraine?

Wallace: You know what? Time to move on to—

Trump: Ukraine buttered the shit out of—

Wallace: Mr. President.

Trump: Ukraine buttered him up real good.

Wallace: Mr. President.

Trump: Shut your mouth Chris. What about Ukraine Joe?

Wallace: VAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHH

Trump:

Wallace: Now I’m gonna say something and I want you to listen right to me, Mr. President. I have had it up to here with you. Any more misbehaving and I will put you in timeout.

Trump: And you know what else—

Wallace: I will put you right in timeout, Mr. President. And then you’ll be sorry. Now I want you to stop being a bad boy, is that clear?

Trump: How about him? He should get timeout too.

Wallace: Well frankly, Mr. President, you’ve been the badder boy.

Trump: He’s been plenty bad.

Wallace: For the next segment, we’ll be talking about race. Why should voters trust you to deal with the race issues facing this country? Mr. Vice President, we’ll start with you.

Biden: I’m all for race. It’s about equity. About equality. About equanimity. Equilibrium. Equinox. We need to fix the systemic equity of racism and fragility in this country. And this president has done none of that. He wants to fix the systemic equity of the Nazis.

Trump: The blacks love me. Everyone knows that the blacks love me. I have blacks come up to me on the street all the time and tell me they love me. Abraham Lincoln and Frederick Douglass and I have done more for the blacks than Joe could ever dream of. Joe won’t say law enforcement. Why won’t you say it Joe? Why are you such a puppet Joe? You’re the radical Left’s toy. You’re a yo-yo. The radical Left won’t let you say law enforcement because they bounce you like a yo-yo, Joe.

Wallace: I want to turn to the subject of protests. In many cities, things have turned violent. Portland, for instance, is a certifiable madhouse. Mr. Biden, have you ever called the mayor of Portland or the governor of Oregon and been like, “wtf?”

Biden: I don’t have their numbers. Otherwise I would have. Do you have their numbers Chris? If you do, text them to me. And besides, they’re taking care of things just fine.

Trump: Yeah Joe? They’re fine? They’re literally murdering people in the streets, which is a disaster, and no one in Portland cares.

Wallace: Mr. President do you like or not like white supremacists?

Trump: No of course not. I don’t not like, or don’t not not like any of the people.

Wallace:

Trump:

Wallace: Mr. President, what is your message to white supremacists?

Trump: Get your guns but don’t fire till I give the word. Anyway the Left is committing 99% of the violence right now.

Biden: Oh baloney. Antifa is an idea, not an organization. I heard it means anti-fascist, in which case heck, sign me up. And anyhow who hasn’t thrown urine at an old lady on a bad day? The Antifas are just like you and me.

Wallace: I’m having an awful time here. I’m really upset and I want to leave and I’m having a bad, bad time. For the next segment, let’s just go with “why should you be president over your opponent?”

Trump: There has never been a leader who has done more than I’ve done. And I don’t mean just U.S. presidents. Mandela. Attila the Hun. Caesar. King Tut. None of them did as much as I’ve done. I unified this country. For the first time in U.S. history, I ended division. I have the first 100% approval rating. And how about judges. I have 300 judges. I have judges up the ass, Chris. You know why? Because Obama and crazy Uncle Joe forgot to fill the seats. Who does that. No one does that. You forget your keys, sure I’ve forgotten my keys, I’m human, we all forget our keys, sometimes I leave my keys. But leaving judges is a disaster.

Biden: This man has made the country weaker, sicker, poorer, fatter, sloppier, and slipperier. When I was Vice President I went head-to-head with Putin, but Trump is Putin’s little puppy. His cuddle-bunny. His bushy-bushy-boo-boo.

Trump: At least Putin’s not my sugar daddy, like he is to your son.

Biden: K speaking of that, fuck off. Second, you talk about the military being losers—my son was in Iraq and he was no loser, he was a patriot.

Trump: Which son, the loser or the dead one?

Biden:

Wallace:

Trump: I don’t know the dead one, but if I recall, the loser got thrown out of the military, dishonorably discharged for having a nice time with his cocaine, only to then head off on his famous belly-buttering tour.

Biden: His belly is dry!

Wallace: Oh for fuck’s sake. Let’s move on to climate change. Mr. President, what do you believe about the science of climate change, and what is your plan to confront it?

Trump: I want clean water and air. As far as the California fires are concerned, the forest floors are full of dead trees and leaves.

Wallace: Okay but what do you believe about the science of climate change?

Trump: I want clean water and air. I’ve planted a biyyon trees. We’ve got to pick the leaves up in the forest in California. Every year I get the call. California’s burning again. Because again they didn’t pick up the fucking leaves. You know in Europe, they pick up leaves.

Wallace: Joe?

Biden: I want to get rid of fossil fuel plants and invest in renewable energy. I want to transition to electric cars and make green buildings and create millions of new jobs.

Trump: He’s talking about the Green New Deal. The 55 quadrillion dollar Green New Deal.

Biden: The Green New Deal is a plan that’ll pay for itself. It’ll work great.

Wallace: Do you support the Green New Deal?

Biden: Of course not. I’m talking about the Biden Plan. Who said anything about the Green New Deal?

Wallace: Mercifully, we’ve reached the final segment of my extremely awful night. Election integrity. How confident should we be that this will be a fair election?

Biden: There is no evidence that mail-in ballots are problematic. Trump is trying to convince people not to vote. Listen to me America. Get out there and vote. If I get enough votes, this whole thing is over and the bad man can’t hurt you. It doesn’t matter what he says, if I get enough votes he’s legit not in power anymore, how rad is that.

Wallace: Mr. President?

Trump: A squirrel’s ass, Chris. That’s where someone found a ballot the other day. A squirrel shit out a ballot in a park in Philadelphia and a man picked it up and guess what? It said Trump on the ballot. Big shocker there. This is what happens with mail-in ballots. They end up in a trash can in a river in the woods in the backcountry and then eventually the trash can gets caught up in an eddy, we both know how eddies work Chris, and it washes up on the bank, and then a squirrel gets into it and eats the ballots. Half the country’s ballots have already been found in eddies and in squirrels, and all of them were votes for me. Mail-in ballots are a fraud.

Wallace: One thing we all know for sure is that this election is going to be a shitshow. Will you accept the results of the shitshow and tell your supporters to accept the results peacefully?

Trump: If there’s no fraud, yes.

Wallace: Is there any foreseeable outcome where you lose and you don’t say it’s fraud?

Trump: No. I’ve already talked about the squirrels. If I lose, we’ll need to end the country.

Wallace: Biden?

Biden: The country can go on if I lose.

Wallace: And that concludes what will end up as a stain on my career even though it clearly wasn’t my fault. Thank you, and goodnight.

___________

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___________

More Places:

The Trump-Clinton Town Hall

The full deal with the first 16 presidents

Why you should stop caring what other people think

The post The Trump-Biden Debate appeared first on Wait But Why.

  •  

A Short History of My Last Six Years

June 18, 2016. Obama was president, the Cavs were on their way to beating the Warriors in the NBA finals, Game of Thrones was still good, and I was 34 years old with my whole life ahead of me.

Wait But Why had been around for three years, a stretch during which I wrote about 100 blog posts on dozens of topics. On the afternoon of June 18, 2016, I was sitting on the couch engaging in a familiar ritual: looking through my list of future post ideas, trying to pick my next topic. And then I had a thought.

So many of the post ideas I was scanning through were about the future. Virtual reality. Artificial intelligence. Genetic engineering. Life extension. Multiplanetary expansion. But lately, it felt like there was a cloud hanging over all these topics.

My urge to write about the future comes from an excited optimism that’s fundamental to my personality. I believe at a deep level that the future is going to be an amazing, exhilarating ride, and nothing is more fun than learning about cutting edge developments that can offer clues into what magic might lie down the road.

But on June 18, 2016, I didn’t feel excitedly optimistic. There was a different feel to the world than there had been in my previous blogging years. Something seemed off about the society around me, like there had been a subtle, foreboding shift in the balance between reason and madness. It felt like we were losing our grip on something important.

The fun thing about being a blogger is you can write about whatever the fuck you want. And a good compass for me had always been that if something was incessantly on my mind, it was probably a good post topic. So I decided to write what I call a “mini post.”

Wait But Why articles are long, and they go deep. I bathe in the topic for a little while, dread writing it for a little while, then finally pump it out, draw the drawings, give it a read, and post. A mini-post is much chiller—I just open WordPress and type what’s on my mind, and post it.

So I opened WordPress to write a little post about that cloud I felt hovering over my other post topics. I’d knock out a draft tonight, give it a read tomorrow, and publish it.

But nothing came out. I didn’t know where to start.

There were a bunch of bad trends: Tribalism was flaring up everywhere, mass shaming campaigns were roaring back into fashion, politicians were increasingly clown-like, public discourse had become a battle of one-dimensional narratives. But why was all of this happening now? Was the problem related to social media? To politics or current events? Was it some broader cultural or psychological phenomenon?

I also noticed that I wasn’t feeling the normal confidence I felt when I started a new post. Something about this topic felt scary. I never felt scared to write about anything before. This fear of writing about this topic seemed like it was an important part of the topic.

Nope. Not a mini-post. I needed the full week for this one.

But a funny thing happened that week. I didn’t write anything. Instead, I started jotting down notes and ideas in a Text Edit document called “society” that quickly became long and messy. I abandoned that document and opened up “society 2” to give myself a fresh start. Soon there was a Society folder with seven note documents.

I could have just stopped there. Too big a topic, too out of my wheelhouse, too icky, too scary. An outline for a virtual reality post was sitting right there in my Future Posts folder waiting for me.

But I’m really, really bad with the sunk cost fallacy. I had already put so much time and thought in, and I couldn’t handle all of it being for nothing.

And so began the next six years of my life.

I wish I could say that I actively decided to put everything else aside and write a giant opus on the problems with my society. But it didn’t happen like that. If you asked me at any point over the past six years when I was gonna be done with my society post—and plenty of people did—the answer was always, “I’m finally getting close.” And I believed it every time. I fully believed, every time, that this thing was almost done. The delusion of a madman.

And the problem with this particular delusion is that it’s a perfect way to ruin your life. If I believed I was working on a six-year project, I’d have worked the project into my normal life. I’d get into a rhythm that would allow for a work-life balance. But when you think you’re at most a couple months from finishing a big project, it makes sense to put everything else on hold for just a little bit more until the project is done. I wasn’t someone who never made fun plans or who worked on every vacation or who took a lot of Vyvanse—I was someone who did those things just for right now, because I’m in crunch time on a big project. For six years.

In May of 2017, I asked my girlfriend to marry me. We had been dating since 2011. She had seen the whole Wait But Why journey up close and had now been living with “I’m almost done with this big project” Tim for a year. We set our wedding date for October of 2018. Thank god by then I’d be out of this pit and working on all kinds of other fun projects.

But instead of the project wrapping up, it just got bigger.

The topic had led me down dozens of totally different rabbit holes, and everything I read seemed relevant to it. I don’t like telling a partial story. Like I had in other posts, I was determined to tell the full, full story. If I noticed something in my reading or on social media or in the news that seemed like an important piece of the puzzle, it had to be incorporated. If that fucked up the current outline, then the outline would have to adapt.

The problem is that the outlines became ridiculous. I couldn’t keep it all in my head at once, so I made sub-outlines, and sub-sub-outlines. The Society folder now looked like this:

As 2017 became 2018, I decided that the wedding would be the hard deadline that I needed. My girlfriend had spent way too much time with an “I’m almost done with this massive post on society” boyfriend. She would have a much more pleasant husband.

I’m still not sure how I turned into a crazy person. The way to proceed was obvious. I should pick a piece of this albatross, throw the rest away, and focus in on it. Do what I had done for years—suck it up, get serious, knock something out, and move on with my life.

But I’m a nightmare of a perfectionist and knew that the ultimate prize was to figure out how to not focus in but capture it all in a single, overarching story. It all was one big story, and I wanted to tell it.

Wedding day came and went.

People in my life were worried about me. They tried encouraging me, shaming me, setting deadlines for me, reminding me that one post really shouldn’t take multiple years. Nothing seemed to help.

Finally, in mid-2019, I hatched a plan that would once and for all end this thing. Rather than post a gargantuan blog post, I’d make it a series. This would break it into parts, which is less daunting. Plus, I had learned that the adrenaline of knowing that my readers were only days away from seeing what I was working on was a huge motivator that I had been sorely missing.

I called it The Story of Us and in August of 2019, the first chapter went up. The whole thing would be 12 chapters, I decided, and even though the chapters got longer as they went, and the time between them expanded, it was finally happening—I was publishing the damn thing. The end was near.

Then came Chapter 11. The first 10 chapters had introduced the core framework of the series and talked broadly about the big picture of what I thought our problem was. In Chapter 11, I was going to dip into more controversial territory, looking at the past few years of news stories through the lens of the framework we had developed.

It turns out I had a lot more to say about what was going on around me than I had anticipated. Soon, my draft of Chapter 11 was longer than the first ten chapters combined. I have problems.

Now it was the middle of 2020. Covid was in full swing. Thousands of people were marching by my apartment in protest. It was a seismic year for American society. Everything I was writing about was happening, and rapidly evolving, literally outside my window. What I had written months earlier suddenly seemed stale. Also, Chapter 11 was over 100,000 words. Death.

It started to dawn on me that I really needed to just turn this into a book. Between the mountains of feedback I had gotten from readers and friends on The Story of Us and the mountains of new thoughts I had about all the recent developments in the world, I knew that there was one way to really bring the project from hell home: open a blank Microsoft Word document and write a newer, better, complete story, and do it in a book format that people could read more easily than a web page. Somewhere, a fairy died.

So I started writing the book. I’d call it the name it should have always been called: What’s Our Problem? I knew what I wanted to say. I just had to write it.

I finished V1 in December of 2021 and triumphantly tweeted about it.

Done! In a sense! It was 250,000 words, which is about 150,000 words too long. And missing most of the drawings. And I had a giant “ADD IN” document full of news stories which had happened in the year and a half since I started writing the book that would need to be incorporated.

It’s hard to cut writing. Perfectionism, sunk costs, etc. Procrastination abound. I would try to cut a section down, polish it off, and move on, but kept finding myself rewriting the section entirely. I was moving at a snail’s pace.

Then one day in June of 2022, my wife woke me up by handing me a positive pregnancy stick. It was a surreal, joyful moment. I’ve never been anyone’s dad before but always wanted to be. Then the thought hit me.

NOPE. 100% no. It could not happen. This baby could not enter a world where this project was still going on. Suddenly, an old friend entered the room.

The baby was due on March 7, 2023, so this book would be completely done by mid-February, period end of story.

V2 got finished (July 2022). Then V3 (September). Then V4 (December). Editors and fact-checkers and copy editors and ebook designers and audiobook engineers were hired. Alicia (Wait But Why’s Manager of Lots of Things, who had already put in thousands of hours helping with every element of the process), went into crazy crunch time mode. I sat in a booth for 45 hours reading the audiobook (January). The ebook was designed (February). The launch date was set.

It took 2,440 days, but my mini-post on society is done and coming out on Tuesday. Fuckin shit.

Here are the pages:

Some stats:

  • 121,000 words
  • 303 drawings
  • 11,081 documents in my Society folder
  • I’m 41
  • A condensed and re-written Story of Us makes up 25% of the book. The rest is all new.

This book is my best crack at explaining what I think is an existential risk to liberal societies and what I think we need to do to get to that awesome future I used to be so excited about. There are dozens of concepts in the book that serve as a kind of toolbox for understanding our societies, our group dynamics, and our own minds. I’m very proud of the final product and never want to have an experience like this again.

If you would like to take my last six years and put it into your brain, here are the different options (all available on Tuesday Feb 21):

Ebook: Available on most major platforms (you can also buy the EPUB directly). It looks best on color e-readers and tablets (especially on vertical scroll mode), but also fine on phones and black-and-white e-readers. The best ebook experience we’ve seen is Apple Books > iPad > sepia > vertical scroll. Available for preorder on Apple and Kindle – the rest are available on launch day, Feb 21.

Wait But Why: Without the limitations of the other formats, this is where the drawings can be displayed full-size, where footnotes can be interactive, etc. The downside here is that you can only read it on a tablet or phone, not an e-reader, and there’s no dark mode at the moment. Available here.

Click here to see how the book looks in different formats

Audiobook: Available on most major platforms (or you can buy the mp3 directly). Read painstakingly by me. I personally do most of my reading via audiobook, so I tried to make it the best possible experience. The obvious downside is that the book has 300+ visuals, so we made a webpage (and pdf) for audiobook listeners with the 46 most important drawings, numbered. When I get to that point in the reading, I say something like, “Go look at drawing number 24.” Available for preorder on Kobo and on other platforms (Audible, Apple, Spotify, and more) on launch day.

If you can’t afford it: I really want everyone who wants to read this book to be able to do so, so if you can’t afford to buy the book, email us at whatsourproblem@waitbutwhy.com and we’ll give you a code that lets you read it on WBW for free.

Print: There is not a print version, which I know will disappoint some people. There are a few reasons for this, but the biggest one is that printing this big full-color book would have delayed launch by many, many months, and fuck that. UPDATE (2024): The book is now available in print! The physical book is a very big, nice, pretty object, and the drawings look great. Available on Amazon, Barnes & Noble, and Bookshop.

Also, Idea Labs: A major theme in this book is how we can do better at having productive discussions about tough topics. So we’re planning to create virtual book clubs for anyone who is interested in discussing the book with other WBW readers. More on this soon, but if you’re interested in being part of a book club, enter your email address here.

So that’s the story with this book. Can’t wait to hear your thoughts. If you want to be notified on launch day and keep up with whatever else we work on in the future, make sure you’re on our email list.

___________

Another time I did something hard: Doing a TED Talk: The Full Story

The number of years this book took me: From 1,000,000 to Graham’s Number

If the news is making you scared about A) UFOs or B) AI

If you’d like to support Wait But Why, here’s our Patreon.

The post A Short History of My Last Six Years appeared first on Wait But Why.

  •  

10 Thoughts from the Fourth Trimester

Back in February, I wrote a post about my upcoming book that included a big visual of the timeline. Just two weeks after the book launch, my first baby would be born. I’d promote the book, catch my breath, and then begin the new adventure.

Thank god for those critical two weeks.

The night before book launch was (obviously) a frantic all-nighter, and I eventually went to bed after 40 hours awake, exhausted and satisfied. We had done it. The book was live. It was over. I’d actually wake up tomorrow without this project hanging over my head. The sky would be blue. I’d finally be free.

I woke up close to noon and felt at peace for three seconds before opening my phone and seeing three texts from my wife:

Hm?

I knew what water breaking was. But I didn’t know what it meant. Is the baby coming out now? Or was this one of the false alarms I had heard about and the baby is still a couple weeks away? Is there a chance she just peed her pants and is misdiagnosing the situation?

After some rapid-fire googling, one thing was clear: We had to go to the hospital. Now.

The drive was weird. I had pictured myself heroically driving a screaming labor-having wife to the hospital, but here I was driving normally to the hospital with a very normal wife next to me. Apart from her new leaking situation, nothing was different than it was yesterday. There was no way we were actually having a baby today. Right?

Upon arrival, the PA assessed things and yes her water had broken, and yes in order to avoid infection that meant the baby had to come out now. Two hours and 12 canceled book-promoting podcasts later, we’re in our delivery room, where my still-not-in-labor wife would supposedly be producing a baby sometime later today.

Again, there was a major expectations-reality gap. I had pictured the day of my first child’s birth being impossibly frenetic and emotional and intense. But there we were, eating animal crackers and gummies from the treats-you-can-eat-while-in-labor bag, hanging out and chatting like any other day.

My wife was hooked up to a bunch of tubes and machines and the plan was to see if contractions would start on their own as a reaction to her water breaking, but a few hours passed and nothing happened. Eventually, the nurse came in and poured a magical little chemical called Pitocin into her IV bag.

And things started happening.

Contractions began, which my wife described as “a really bad period cramp,” which helped me understand what they felt like 0%. Over the next couple hours they got worse and worse. I was quickly assigned the role of “don’t say or do anything” while contractions were happening, so I’d just kind of sit there awkwardly and watch with this face on:

Her epidural plan was something like “definitely get one but tough it out a little first,” and after a particularly awful contraction, she called it a day and the epidural team came in to do their thing. 45 minutes later, we’re back in the “I know this is the day of the birth of our first child but it sure doesn’t feel like it” zone, chatting and hanging out normally. After a few more hours, a nurse came in and checked on the dilation situation and was like “alright, let’s do this!”

Once again, nothing like I pictured. I thought there would be a big team of doctors and nurses doing a whole big hectic thing and I’d be standing somewhere on the side. Instead, it was me and this nurse, each holding a leg.

The game went like this: When a contraction starts, we each grab a leg and she pushes really hard for 10 seconds three times in a row. Then everyone chills and hangs out for a few minutes until the next contraction. And repeat.

After a few rounds of this, it was clear this was not gonna work. Nothing was coming out. But we kept trying anyway.

And then I saw it.

The edge of an upsetting slimy pancake.

When I asked what the upsetting slimy pancake edge was, the nurse told me it was my daughter.

Uh huh.

This then went on for a while. We’d do a round of pushing, the upsetting pancake thing would come out a centimeter and then go back in, and each round it would come out a few more millimeters. It was increasingly feeling like we really weren’t getting anywhere with this strategy when the nurse suddenly says “okay let’s deliver a baby!”

She makes a call and a few minutes later a group of people come in, including the first doctor we had seen that day. The next contraction came along, I leg-held, my wife pushed, and then in the most surreal moment of my life, I was staring at a tiny screaming alien.

___________

That was 3 months ago. I’ve had a lot of thoughts since then. Here are 10 of them:

1) A newborn is not a baby

I thought it was gonna be like this:

But it’s actually like this:

A newborn is not a baby. Babies are cute and roly-poly and can see and are conscious and are normal and a newborn is not any of these things. It is a bizarre human larva that acts super weird and would still be in the womb if it could be. The problem is, when humans went bipedal, our pelvises got smaller, and as humans got smarter, our heads got bigger. So evolution had to get creative. Its solution: all human babies would be premies, born when they were still small enough to pass through a human pelvis. The last couple months as a fetus would happen outside the womb, and everyone would just have to deal with that. This became incredibly obvious during the first month with my daughter. She was a raw human id not remotely ready for primetime. Thankfully, since then, a baby has grown around the id and now she has the figure of a miniature 390-pound 84-year-old woman.1

2) It is insane that there’s not some required training for new-parents-to-be

If I want to drive a car, I have to take driver’s ed first. If I want to provide medical advice, I have to go to med school first. But after we had the baby, the hospital was like “don’t shake it k bye.”

I know a lot of words I didn’t used to know. Meconium. Tummy time. Latching. Bicycling. Swaddle. Colostrum. I know how many ounces of milk and hours of sleep the baby is supposed to have each day. I know baby CPR and the baby Heimlich maneuver. I know how to induce baby burps and shits. I know how warmly to dress a baby. I know what temperature baby bathwater should be. I know what sleep training is and when it’s okay to start it. I know that you can’t just pick a newborn up, you have to pick all the pieces up at the same time or else the pieces fall off.

But I only know all of these things because I read books and articles and am fortunate to have people I can call with questions. And society’s current plan is to just expect/hope that every new parent does the same?? There should obviously be like a mandatory four-hour course every expecting parent has to take before they’re actually in charge of a newborn.

Instead, people like to say things like “you’ll figure it out” and “just use your instincts.” You could apply the same logic to driving and people probably would just figure it out—but we don’t do it that way, because that would be absurd.

3) Babies have giant heads*

*I made this visual thinking it was gonna emphasize how big baby heads are, but after looking at the big-headed guy on the right for a while, it started to look normal to me, and the normal-headed guy suddenly looked like he had a ridiculously small head. So now I’m realizing that the big takeaway is that baby heads are normal and the rest of our heads are tiny.

4) Babies are incredibly overdramatic

When a normal person is hungry, or tired, or needs to burp, they’re a little annoyed. Babies are in Shakespearean agony. And then comes the burp and one second later they’re like “sup.” It’s insane behavior.

For a while, the range of baby emotion runs from Shakespearean agony to neutral, never entering the positive realm. Neutral is a newborn’s best-case scenario.

After six weeks or so, positive emotion begins to make an appearance, but then they still go apoplectic at the slightest inconvenience.2

While we’re here, I know it’s bad but I can’t help it—crying babies are funny. My wife completely disagrees with me on this.

5) The parent-newborn relationship is super one-sided

It’s weird—you have all of these intense feelings for this little person* and there’s just nothing to do with those feelings. I could squish her face, but then she’d cry and I’d be abusing a baby. In the early weeks, there’s just not really a satisfying outlet for your baby fondness and it’s annoying.

One other one-sided thing is you’re apparently supposed to talk to your newborn even though they’re an unconscious fetus because it supposedly helps develop their brain. So now my baby has heard multiple versions of my next book outline, the full story of the rise and fall of the Assyrian Empire after I listened to a podcast about it, and a list of every World Series champion going back to 1990. Never once has the baby shown any sign of being affected by any of this.

*That said, I’ve always thought of parental love as the most intense form of love—the kind where if you had a Sophie’s choice where your baby and spouse were both hanging off a cliff and you could only save one, you’d save the baby without a second thought. And…yeah I’m not there yet. I love this little creature a freakish amount, but as of now, I’m definitely saving my wife in that situation. Sorry kiddo. I’m sure Tim the Baby-Saver-Wife-Dropper will at some point emerge, but I guess it takes some time.

6) Babies shit all over your schedule

Obvious one, I know, but just check this out:1

These are the sleep graphs of three different babies, but they all have one thing in common: there’s no rhyme or reason in the early months, because newborns are dicks.

7) It’s mathematically impossible to know if your baby is cute or not

I think my baby is impossibly adorable, of course, but every parent thinks that about their baby, so that offers no information. Everyone who has met her or seen a picture of her has commented on how cute she is, but they’d say that no matter what she looked like—which I know as someone who has commented on the cuteness of babies ranging from perfect to hideous—so there’s no information there either. FYI, I once depicted what happens when friends visit someone with an uncute baby:

8) I’m a motor skills virtuoso

It’s pretty amazing how bad babies are at everything. They’re terrible at thinking, at knowing anything, at moving all parts of their body. The cool thing is that spending time with a super unimpressive baby has made me super impressed by myself. Like I’ll watch the baby sitting in a baby bouncer trying to reach for a little wooden flower one foot in front of her and she just flings her arm in the general direction and misses by a lot. Then I’ll reach for a glass of water and all of my joints work together to send my hand on a perfectly straight path through three-dimensional space, gracefully clasp my fingers around it using the perfect amount of pressure, raise it to my mouth, tilt it in perfect sync with the movement of my lips, and then return the glass to the table and gently place it down like an absolute genius.

9) You don’t go from a non-parent to a parent overnight

Some things are just too big for our little human brains to fully absorb. The bigness of the universe. The permanence of death. The magnitude of the marriage decision, which I once described like this:

When you choose a life partner, you’re choosing a lot of things, including your parenting partner and someone who will deeply influence your children, your eating companion for about 20,000 meals, your travel companion for about 100 vacations, your primary leisure time and retirement friend, your career therapist, and someone whose day you’ll hear about 18,000 times. Intense shit.

A few months into fatherhood, this feels like another item in that category. When your baby is born, you will (hopefully) never live another day as a non-parent. For people who make the decision to do this, it is the BC-AD line of their life. It doesn’t mean you can’t still be you, but you are trading in one kind of life for another, with all of the pros and cons that come along with it.

I don’t think I’ve been able to quite wrap my head around the bigness of the situation. A curious childless friend asked me the other day if I feel like a dad, and I surprised myself by answering “not really.” I mostly feel like old me that has this new delightful little thing living in my house. When I see friends with sentient kids actually parenting them, saying things like “that’s not nice, stop it,” whatever that must be like is as much of a mystery to me as it was three months ago. For me at least, it seems like a parent is something you slowly turn into as your first baby slowly turns into a person.

Btw I’m now even more convinced than I was before that this is the most personal of personal decisions and no one should ever try to pressure anyone else to have kids—it’s way too big a thing to be anyone else’s business.

10) Having a baby really makes you think about the future

Every parent in history has brought their baby into a world with an uncertain future. But our future is the uncertainest. My baby might live a life a lot like mine, just a little more futuristic. Or she might live to 500. She might live most of her life with a brain-machine interface implanted in her head, thinking with her own superintelligent AI. She might suffer through civilizational collapse. She might live in a world that would seem like utopia to us today. She might live on Mars. She might meet aliens. She might die in the apocalypse. There’s just no way to know. It makes all of those fun, exciting, terrifying conversations about the future hit just a little harder.

_______

If you like Wait But Why, sign up for our email list and we’ll send you new posts when they come out.

To support Wait But Why, visit our Patreon page.

_______

More thoughts with comics:
10 Types of Odd Friendships You’re Probably Part Of
The Great Perils of Social Interaction
11 Awkward Things About Email

If you can’t decide whether to marry your significant other: The Marriage Decision: Everything Forever or Nothing Ever Again

If you’re hearing everyone talk about AI and would like an overview: The AI Revolution: The Road to Superintelligence


  1. One thing I kept thinking during the first few weeks: it’s really weird that Einstein and Hitler and Shaq and Plato and Queen Elizabeth were all wiggly, flailing little aliens at one point.

  2. Speaking of which, companies that make onesies that snap instead of zipper should be sent to the gulag.

The post 10 Thoughts from the Fourth Trimester appeared first on Wait But Why.

  •  

All My Thoughts After 40 Hours in the Vision Pro

I’m writing this on a 30-foot screen on top of a 10,000-foot mountain in Hawaii, at a table in an Austin coffee shop where I’m pretty sure other people are taking photos of me to send to their friends so they can all call me a piece of shit. In the last week, life has gotten weird.

My journey to the Haleakalā shield volcano Austin coffee shop began more than 30 years ago, in 1990, when my parents brought me to something called a “virtual reality exhibit” at the Seaport World Trade Center in Boston. I stood on a little circular pedestal, and the guy handed me a plastic gun and put a big headset on me. Suddenly I was in some cartoon world, in a military uniform, holding a real gun. The person on the pedestal next to me was there, also a cartoon, also holding a gun. After some janky waving and shooting, they kicked me out for the next person in line.

I had recently read The Phantom Tollbooth, where a kid in the real world crosses a magic threshold and enters a cartoon world. This felt like that. I wanted more.

Then VR disappeared for 25 years. Throughout the ‘90s and 2000s, “virtual reality” was a forgotten dream—a cool concept that never made it. But in the mid-2010s, VR made an unexpected comeback. 20-year-old Palmer Luckey’s duct-taped headset prototype had impressed enough investors for Oculus to become a real company. In 2014, Facebook bought Oculus. Google and Sony got involved. It was all finally happening.

In 2016, I decided to write about the VR revolution. I went around Silicon Valley, interviewing people at Google and Facebook to get the full scoop on VR. I even sat down with Mark Zuckerberg.

I demoed everything. It was mind-blowing. VR was about to take over the world. And I was gonna be the one to tell everyone.

Then two things happened:

  1. VR didn’t take over the world.
  2. I didn’t write a VR post because I fell into a six-year book hole instead.

From the bottom of my book hole, I kept following the story. At Facebook’s 2016 developer conference, Zuckerberg had demoed a new bleeding-edge kind of “standalone, inside out” headset. Up until then, there were two ways to do VR: The first was with a cheap headset, maybe using your phone as a screen, that could do primitive head-movement tracking but had no way to see the environment around you. The second was with external sensors on the walls and a headset that attached to a high-powered PC with a cord. “Standalone” meant the new headset would have the computer inside, with no need for a cable. “Inside out” meant the headset could see the room around you, so you didn’t need external sensors. In 2016, this was just a prototype. Three years later, Facebook launched Oculus Quest.

In 2020, standing around during Covid with my dick in my hand like everyone else, I got myself a Quest 2. It was amazing. I loved it. It was my daily post-writing reward activity. I made 3D art. I swam with whales. I went on cartoon vacations. I exercised by slashing music. I beat Trover.

Then, for some reason, I stopped. I can’t really explain why. I really loved being in the Quest 2. I recently dusted it off to give friends a demo and they were floored, reminding me how great it is. It just didn’t hook me. Maybe it was the solo aspect. I don’t have friends who do VR so there’s no one else to play with. Maybe it’s the friction. It’s minor, but charging the headset, putting it on, and creating a boundary1 is still a lot more friction than picking up my phone. Maybe my delight relied more on novelty than I realized.

It’s not just me. VR blows everyone away when they try it, but it seems to have a hard time hooking people for the long run. After a major wave of hype in the mid-2010s, VR receded into the land of subcultures.

And the question is: Is there some fatal flaw to the concept of VR that will always prevent it from achieving mass adoption? Or are we some tipping point away from VR exploding into the stratosphere like the computer and smartphone?

Enter Apple

Everyone remembers where they were when they learned that JFK was shot, a man had landed on the moon, or airplanes had flown into the Twin Towers. I remember where I was when I saw Steve Jobs unveil the first iPhone.

I didn’t always like Apple. My family’s first computer was an Apple 2GS. But then, like many early Apple computer users, I became a PC person. I used an IBM ThinkPad in college and thought Apple people were annoying.

Then Steve Jobs came back to Apple and started Making Apple Great Again. My post-college music composing path forced me to get a 2004 PowerBook G4. After getting used to the interface (why the fuck is there no start button?), I realized that Macs were amazing, and I’ve been an annoying Apple person ever since. But it wasn’t until 2007 that I became a fanboy.

In the presentation, when Jobs did the world’s first “swipe to unlock,” the audience made an audible gasp. A minute later, he brought up a list of artists in the phone’s “iPod” app and asked, “Well, how do I scroll through my list of artists? I just take my finger and scroll.” Another audible gasp. It’s weird that something so normal today was jaw-dropping 17 years ago.

The feeling I had watching that presentation had happened before. I felt it when I was five years old and tried Nintendo for the first time at a friend’s house (I can make something on the TV move by clicking this button??). I felt it in the early ‘90s when my friend showed me how to send an email (You can type something on your computer, hit a button, and it shows up on mine??). I felt it the first time I test-drove a Tesla (Why is this car accelerating so futuristically?).

I’ve learned to see a lot of meaning in these holy shit moments. In most cases, they’ve been followed by an entirely new industry sweeping the world—like the smartphone, video game, internet, and electric car revolutions.

In June 2023, Apple announced the VR—sorry, spatial computingheadset that had been long rumored: the Vision Pro.

I watched the presentation, but it wasn’t quite like my experience in 2007. First, I had gotten excited about VR multiple times in the past and ended up disappointed. Second, unlike demoing an iPhone, watching a VR demo on a 2D screen just doesn’t show you what it’s actually like. Oh, also, it was $3,500. I happily shelled out $600 for the first iPhone. But $3,500? For a V1 product that will get way better (and cheaper) in the next few years? When I already have a Meta Quest? Nah. I might be a fanboy but I’m not a chump. It was the obvious grown-up decision to wait it out. Then I ordered one in the first minute after preorders started.

This Monday morning, I went to the Apple Store to put the Vision Pro on my chump face for the first time. The staff member guided me through a demo. And there it was: the holy shit moment.

But it was a holy shit moment with an asterisk. I had experienced full holy shit moments both in 1990 and in 2016 with VR, and these were the notable exceptions to the “holy shit moments are a surefire omen of an industry about to blow up” rule. Was this time different or would history repeat itself?

What I did know was that it was finally time to write a VR post. I wanted to post this week while everyone was hyped up about the Vision Pro. But I didn’t want to write about it before I had used it a lot, so I could experience not only the honeymoon phase but also what it was like to get thoroughly sick of it.

The plan was clear. I went home, told my wife that I would be deeply ignoring her and our baby for the week, and spent twelve hours a day in the headset for four straight days. I’m writing this on Thursday afternoon, having already logged over forty hours. Here are my thoughts.

Vision Pro, V1

There are three elements of any VR system: hardware, operating system, and applications. Let’s talk about each.

Hardware

Apple Vision Pro (AVP)1 is heavy—a decent amount heavier (650 grams) than Meta’s Quest 3 (515 grams). It comes with a fancy band that goes on easily and you tighten with a little knob. It’s awesome. For 12 minutes. Then it started killing my face. With 3,500 regrets, I switched to the other band it comes with, which includes a loop that goes over the top of your head, and thank god for that because it was way better—so good that I am shocked to say that even at the end of a full day wearing it, I didn’t feel a euphoric “ahhh” relief taking it off. At least right now, it seems only a little more uncomfortable than wearing over-ear headphones for long periods of time. This might not apply to everyone, but I have not felt nauseous once while wearing it.

That doesn’t mean there’s nothing that sucks about wearing it. The “field of view” isn’t great, meaning there are thick black walls where your peripheral vision is supposed to be, which is a bummer. I can’t imagine it’s great for your eyes. And there’s no way around the fact that you feel like an asshole when other people are in the room.

There’s an external battery pack that connects to the headset with a cord and typically lives in my pocket. The battery lasts about three hours, but you can plug in the battery to make it last forever, like a computer if the battery only lasted for three hours. (You’re often using it in conjunction with your computer, which makes it a non-issue because you can plug the battery into the computer.)

When you put the headset on, it does the AVP version of Face ID: scanning your irises. This is seamless and very futuristic. Then, you see exactly what you saw before putting the headset on. Lots of reviewers have marveled over AVP’s “pass-through” capabilities, and the second I put it on, I understood why. While it’s not perfect, it’s almost like you’re wearing a transparent snorkeling mask. The headset is in fact opaque—cameras on the outside transmit the world onto screens on the inside. But the screens are so good and the latency so low that it really seems transparent. Then there’s the much less successful attempt to make it look transparent from the outside as well, using cameras on the inside to broadcast your eyes onto the front of the headset. The goal is that if you’re talking to someone while wearing the headset, it feels to both people like you’re wearing a transparent snorkeling mask. But at least in V1, the eyes don’t show up nearly as well as advertised.

The internal screens save energy by doing something clever called “foveated rendering”—i.e. only putting the exact place you’re looking in perfect focus while making the rest of the view lower-res. This is what your actual eyes do, which is why your peripheral vision is blurry. If you watch this viewcast I made, you’ll see that most of it is blurry (the sharp part was where I happened to be looking while taking it)—but as the person in the headset, I only ever saw perfect sharpness.

The way Vision Pro does audio is also cool. There have always been two sound options for me while on my phone or computer: play from the speaker and everyone can hear it or put on headphones and no one can hear it. AVP speakers are somewhere in between. The speakers (which sound great) are small and right above your ears, and while people right next to you can hear what you’re hearing, people in the next room cannot. So in a coffee shop or on an airplane, you still need headphones, but I do a lot of my work in an office in our house with the door open, and it’s been nice to work both without headphones and without bothering anyone in the other room.

Operating System

This was the biggest holy shit of my holy shit moment. Apple is the king of simple intuitive interfaces. Part of what drew those gasps in 2007 was how natural the iPhone’s interface was. You scrolled down by pushing the page up, just like you would in real life. You zoomed by pinching with two fingers. It seemed like magic. AVP’s interface is gaspworthy for the same reason. The main gesture is what I’ve been calling the “eye pinch.”

When you press the button at the top of the headset, your apps come up, floating in the room in front of you, looking as real as any other object in the room. They’re fixed in space. You can walk right up to them, and the detail is amazing.2

Vision Pro’s eye tracking is outrageously good. It knows precisely where you’re looking. So all you do to select an app is look at it and tap your thumb and index finger together. Your hand doesn’t need to move up to do this, just somewhere the headset can see it. Watching the ads, it seemed like this might be annoying to do, but it’s every bit as easy and intuitive as opening an app on a smartphone.

No matter what you’re doing, the eye pinch is the equivalent of touching a finger to a smartphone screen. To scroll, look anywhere in the window, pinch, and move your hand up. To move a window, look at the little bar below the window, pinch, and move it where you want to. To resize the window, look at the window’s corner, pinch, and resize.

As John Gruber put it in his review:

The fundamental interaction model in VisionOS feels like it will be copied by all future VR/AR headsets, in the same way that all desktop computers work like the Mac, and all phones and tablets now work like the iPhone. And when that happens, some will argue that of course they all work that way, because how else could they work? But personal computers didn’t have point-and-click GUIs before the Mac, and phones didn’t have “it’s all just a big touchscreen” interfaces before the iPhone. No other headset today has a “just look at a target, and tap your finger and thumb” interface today. I suspect in a few years they all will.

Then there’s the fact that everything you see in front of you is available desktop to work with. On my computer, I’m used to my applications being stacked, and I toggle between them. Or maybe I put a few vertical windows side by side. In AVP, I can put one eight-foot window in front of me, two more on either side of it, and a couple more above them in the sky. Then, if I get up to go to the other room, the windows all stay exactly where they are, waiting for me to come back. If I want to switch work spots, I just hold the headset button and the whole configuration jumps to the new location. This is all way cooler than I’m making it sound, so I made a video to show you how it works:

One thing you’ll notice in the video is that I routinely spin the digital crown on the headset to slide between being entirely in reality, partially in reality, and entirely in a virtual landscape. This is ridiculously fun to do. And it’s a general reminder that AR and VR2 being separate categories is a thing of the past. In the Vision Pro, the Quest 3, and any future headset, you can be 100% in the real world (when there’s nothing on the screen and it seems like you’re wearing a snorkeling mask), you can be mostly in the real world except there’s a virtual game board on your kitchen table or a little virtual butterfly fluttering around. You can be halfway between reality and virtual when, say, portals open up in the walls around you during a game. Or you can go full virtual.

Apps

There are many categories of spatial computing apps—productivity, entertainment, social, gaming, creative, fitness—and for most of them today, you’ll need a Meta Quest or some other non-Apple headset. There are a small handful of astounding apps for AVP, but they’re more a sampling of what’s possible than an actual app store.

The most “you can absolutely not do this anywhere but a VR headset” thing I did was their little taster menu of immersive entertainment. Entertainment on a headset runs on a spectrum of immersion. The least immersive is watching a normal movie on a massive screen in a virtual space like the moon or a giant theater. Those movies you missed that everyone says are best seen on the big screen—you can see those on a big screen now.

Next are movies that are framed in a normal rectangle, but they’re 3D looking—like when we used to wear those stupid paper glasses but much, much better. Sometimes, these surprise you when something comes out of the screen to fly through the air or stand on the floor between you and the screen. The AVR comes with one of these—“Encounter Dinosaurs”—and it’s delightful.

Finally, there’s full immersion, where the scene entirely surrounds you and you actually feel like you’re there. These are better described as “experiences” than “entertainment.” I saw rhinos up close in person last year. Then, this week, I did one of the Vision Pro experiences that’s an up-close hang with rhinos. These two experiences were very similar. Another experience lets you sit in on an Alicia Keys rehearsal where she sings some songs standing two feet away from you. You can watch her for a while, then look over at what the drummer or keyboardist is doing for a while—just like you would if you were actually there.

Photos and videos are also cool. When you take a panoramic photo, you sweep your phone around in a C-shaped arc—but on a flat phone screen, the result is a flat photo. In AVP, panos are C-shaped, like the photo you actually took. The C wraps around you, which I quickly learned brings the memory back way better than the flat version. You can also turn the headset into a camera and record photos and videos, both of which are immersive. When you later view them in the headset, they’re 3D, putting you right back into the actual scene.

Then there’s the infamous Vision Pro avatars. You get one of these by flipping the headset around and letting it take pictures of you from different angles. Then when you FaceTime someone, your avatar mimics whatever facial expressions you’re making. Here’s mine:

The first person I tested it out on was my wife, who immediately gasped in horror, saying I had “little uncanny valley snake eyes rolling around in my skull,” whatever the fuck that means.

The uncanny valley she’s upset about is this:3

The idea is that we like faces that are somewhat humanlike, and we like faces that are totally humanlike, but we hate faces that are almost-but-not-totally humanlike. Faces that fall just short of being human give us the collective willies.

Avatars used to suck. Then they got better. Now they’ve gotten so good they’ve plunged into the uncanny valley. This was always gonna happen at some point on the road to perfect avatars and that time is now.

To test it out for myself, I FaceTimed my friend Jules Terpak, who also has a Vision Pro. First I put her across from me at this table while we sat around with each other’s uncanny valley faces for a few minutes.

One very cool thing is that when I moved her window to a different seat at the table, her voice shifted locations to that spot. We concluded that this activity was not actually an upgrade over FaceTime, but that if there were more than two people, it could feel like everyone was sitting around a table together, which would be better than talking to a group FaceTime or Zoom.

Then we shifted locations to Mount Hood.

This felt more like we were actually hanging out somewhere, which is an effect you can’t get on FaceTime.

When we started going into apps together, it felt even more like we were actually doing an activity together, in a way you normally can’t do without being in person.

It’s very crude right now, but it’s a primitive version of something we’ll probably all be doing constantly in the 2030s. It’s the next step in a centuries-long human mission to conquer long-distance. First there were letters, then phone calls, then mobile phones3 and video calls. The next step is VR hangouts.

By far the thing I spent the most time doing in the Vision Pro was exactly what I normally do, but the AVP version. When you’re sitting down in front of your computer while wearing the headset, you can open your computer screen as a giant virtual window (which you still control with your normal keyboard and trackpad). Whatever screen you’re used to working on is now much, much bigger. It’s also much more mobile. I don’t usually work on the couch because I prefer my big monitor over my laptop screen. This week, I spent a lot of time working on my couch on a 100-inch monitor. I don’t normally work lying flat in bed because the laptop screen isn’t directly above me. This week I did, putting the screen up on the ceiling. I did some work outside on the porch and some more under a tree. Sometimes I saw the room around me, only with a big screen floating in it. Other times, I went fully immersive, writing on a mountain top, a sand dune, or the moon. And as I mentioned at the beginning of the post, I’m currently using the AVP in a coffee shop, which is officially embarrassing.

For some odd reason, you can’t open multiple desktops (yet), but you can open some of the things on your desktop as their own apps in separate windows. There’s an AVP iMessage app, so I closed iMessage on my desktop and opened it in an adjacent window. I often remotely cowork with Alicia (WBW’s Manager of Lots of Things), putting her in a little window in the corner of my screen. Now, she’s in her own window. If I’m willing to bite the bullet and switch from Chrome to Safari, I can pull my research and web browsing off the desktop too. The end result is that a single small, immobile computer screen has been replaced with a giant mosaic of screens, for the small price of having a snorkeling mask on my face all day. It kind of feels like you stepped into your computer screen, into the beautiful wallpaper landscape, amongst the windows. Very surreal. I wrote this entire post in the headset and have found myself enjoying writing more—and being more focused—than normal.

My overall feelings

The best way I can describe how I feel about the Vision Pro is a strange combination of utterly thunderstruck and mildly underwhelmed.

The magical interface, the giant screens, the immersive experiences—they’re just unfathomably cool and awe-inspiring. It feels like a sneak peek at the 2030s.

But after a couple of days, I found myself thinking, “Is that…it?” I had done the small handful of immersive experiences, played some of the small selection of games, looked at a bunch of my panoramic photos, and tried avatar FaceTime—and at the moment, there’s just not that much else to do in the Vision Pro.

The first iPhone left me feeling the same combination of blown away and bored. The phone and I had a torrid honeymoon, but after the novelty of the interface wore off, all it had to offer was the same 16 practical apps.

There was no app store yet, it dropped calls constantly, and the cellular internet (which you couldn’t use while on a call) was painfully slow. The iPhone wasn’t a world-changing device yet. It was the seed from which a world-changing device would grow.

If you zoom out on a story of technology, you usually see a big exponential curve.

But if you look at the curve up close, you see that it’s wavy, made of S-curves.

The first iPhone was such a big deal because it launched a new S. Investors had a new place to pour their money. Developers had a new place to pour their efforts. Creators had a new place to pour their talents. As millions of human hours worked on the collective human project, the next five years were a whirlwind of innovation and excitement. Apple’s keynotes became a must-watch for anyone interested in tech, as each jump between the iPhone 1 > 3G > 3GS > 4 > 4S > 5 was a major leap in hardware and software. It was the steep part of the S.

Then, the keynotes got boring. The changes were incremental. Apple stopped innovating and started refining. This coincided with Tim Cook taking over, but it isn’t his fault. The steep part of the S-curve doesn’t go on forever, and companies often reap the biggest rewards in the boring, top part of the S once the industry matures.

Maybe the reason VR has been slow to take off isn’t because there’s something fundamentally wrong with VR. Maybe it’s because, for the last decade, we’ve been working our way through the very early part of the VR S-curve—the slow part where foundational technology is researched and built. My Vision Pro is highly imperfect—overpriced, heavy, slightly glitchy, very limited, creepy-avatared—because that’s exactly what products are like at the bottom of the S. Consumer products aren’t ready for mass adoption during this stage. But it’s the breakthroughs made during these years that set the stage for the explosive exponential phase of the curve.

The lesson from past VR hype cycles is to temper expectations. The VR S-Curve explosion may be many years away or never come at all. But the lesson from past Apple launches is don’t bet against Apple, and Apple’s bet is that the Vision Pro could be a seed like the first iPhone—a platform for innovation that kicks a new S-curve into high gear.4

Vision Pro, V2 – V10

For someone to regularly use a piece of technology, the benefits have to outweigh the costs. Right now, the Vision Pro benefits are probably less than the costs.

I’ve already paid for mine, which removes one of the costs, and it’s still a question to what extent I’ll choose it over my computer in the long run. In that regard, the AVP might currently be more like those first cell phones you had to carry around with a briefcase than the first iPhone. Would you get a cell phone if the only way they came was attached a briefcase? Maybe, but it’s a close call.

For VR to achieve mass adoption, the good needs to be better and the bad needs to be less bad. It’s easy to imagine a pathway to both.

The operating system will get better each year. The two-finger pinch is currently the only gesture. More will be added. Eventually, there may be dozens of ways to make gestures with our fingers, each one a different command, like today’s keyboard shortcuts. When you spend ten minutes setting up an elaborate configuration of windows, you’ll be able to save (and share) it.

Avatars will go from uncanny valley to indistinguishable from your normal face. When you go into immersive environments, you can currently see only your hands. In the future, you’ll be able to identify other objects to remain visible (like a coffee mug). The environments around you will expand from the six current options to hundreds, including delightful fantasy worlds, and they’ll be interactive, allowing you to change things like the weather.

The hardware will get continually smaller and more comfortable. The resolution and frame rate will become as advanced as the latency. The battery will get way better. So will the look from the outside: to people in the room, the headset will come to look totally transparent. (My personal fantasy: The computer itself becomes detachable, allowing the headset to be a light, sleek, cool-looking visor. The computer and battery snap together into something the size of a smartphone. You’ll be able to snap it to the back of your visor if you don’t want the cord, but most people will prefer the weight to be somewhere other than their heads. The computer/battery rectangle will also have a screen and function as a smartphone for times when you want to do something with the visor off. The visor will fold neatly onto the rectangle to make the whole thing a single compact object.)

Finally, the amount of content, applications, and experiences will multiply by 1,000-fold, just like the apps in the app store did from 2008 to today. There will be a wide array of immersive games and entertainment. People will watch sports from one of many vantage points on the field, sideline, stands, or overhead—next to their friends, who will be able to look at each other and talk as well as if they were actually together in person. Pop stars will play in front of 50,000 people in person and 5 million people virtually. Fitness will become fun, interactive, and social. The best teachers and coaches will reach millions of people. Amazing AI teachers could reach billions. Distance will melt away, allowing people to spend high-quality time with their loved ones, no matter where they are. People who couldn’t dream of traveling the world today will get to enjoy vivid experiences anywhere on the globe. Of course, my silly 2024 imagination can’t scratch the surface any more than people in the briefcase phone days could have predicted Uber, TikTok, or Tinder.

Over time, the price will come down, with some companies making headsets dirt cheap the way they have for smartphones today. As the value proposition gets better and better, more people will have them, enhancing the social component and eradicating any stigma. Mass adoption seems like a very real future possibility.

I know what many of you are thinking: A world where everyone is in VR headsets (or visors, or glasses, or contact lenses) sounds dystopian and awful. And granted, this is coming from a guy who thought that world of glazed over people in moving chairs in Wall-E looked like a great place to live—but I’m excited.

K can I take this thing off my face now?

_______

What to read next:

A post about a technology even more intense than VR

A post about a different technology that’s also even more intense than VR

A post about a third technology that’s even more intense than VR

_______

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  1. When you use the Quest 2 in a new setting, you have to manually show the headset the boundaries of the open space you’re going to be using. This isn’t needed in the more recent Quest 3, which automatically maps out the space.

  2. “Virtual Reality” has traditionally referred to totally immersive headset experiences. “Augmented Reality” is when you see the real world around you with virtual elements added in.

  3. We’re so used to mobile phones that we forget how insanely cool they are. I can pick up my rectangle and instantly contact you wherever you are on the planet.

  4. If this is what happens, unboxed first-generation Vision Pros will be auctioned for a ton of money in 2060. Just saying…


  1. Image source: Apple

  2. Image source: Apple

  3. Image source

The post All My Thoughts After 40 Hours in the Vision Pro appeared first on Wait But Why.

  •  

The 2024 Trump-Biden Debate

DEBATE TRANSCRIPT:

Jake Tapper: Welcome to the CNN Presidential Debate. I’m Jake Tapper.

Dana Bash: And I’m Dana Bash. Let’s get started.

Tapper: We’ll begin with the economy. President Biden, since you took office, inflation has slowed but prices remain high. What do you say to voters who feel they are worse off under your presidency than they were under President Trump?

Biden: Look at what Mr. Trump left me when I became president. We had an economy in free fall. Everyone was unemployed. Thousands were dying of Covid, it was like a zombie apocalypse, and Trump was just drinking bleach. Then I came to office and put the pieces back together. We brought insulin shots down to 15 dollars. Senior citizens pay no more than 200 dollars a year for healthcare.

Tapper: Mr. Trump?

Trump: We had the greatest economy in the history of this world or any other world. There are some great fictional worlds out there, like the Emerald City, which by the way has a great economy, but not as good as ours. No economy had ever done as well as ours did when I was in office. Everybody was amazed by it. All the other countries said they wished I was their president. In Asia or Europe or Peru, go ask them and they’ll tell you how amazed they were by the job I did. Inflation is killing us.

Biden: A better economy than the Emerald City? I don’t know anyone who thinks that. My friend who I talked to the other day doesn’t think that. He said you were a worse president than Herbert Hoover, and that’s saying something because Herbert Hoover could give a rat’s ass who shows up at the local gooseberry growing contest. I don’t know what happened at last year’s contest but those are some good gooseberries. When Trump was president we were still killing people in Afghanistan. I’m the only president where no one has died anywhere in the world.

Tapper: Mr. Trump, you say you want to extend the tax cuts you put in place. With the U.S. facing trillion dollar deficits and record debt, why should top earners and corporations pay even less in taxes than they do now?

Trump: The tax cuts are why we had the greatest economy in human or animal history. I was just about to zero out the debt when Covid hit. So instead I made the vaccine, and it was a tremendous vaccine, and then he took over and did a very poor job. When I was president the whole world loved America and admired me. Now we’re a disgusting piss-covered Third World country.

Biden: I’m going to fix the tax system. We have a trillion thousandaires in this country—excuse me, a million trillionaires. Billionaires pay only $150 in taxes. I paid more than that when I worked at Padula’s ice cream stand when I was 15. I paid the taxes I owed. If billionaires paid their fair share we’d be able to wipe out the debt. We’d be able to pay for childcare, eldercare, healthcare. We’d be able to make every single solitary person eligible for what I’ve been able to do with, dealing with everything we have to do with everything that we have to be able to deal with.

Trump:

Tapper:

Bash:

Biden: The.

Trump:

Tapper:

Bash:

Biden: We finally beat Medicare.

Tapper: For fuck’s sake. Okay let’s talk about Roe v. Wade.

Trump: Everyone wanted to overturn Roe v. Wade, and I mean everyone. And I did that. These people are sick. They want to abort eight-month fetuses. Nine-month fetuses. Newborn babies. Older fatter babies. Boddlers. Toddlers. There’s no one these people won’t abort. President Biden tries to abort his political opponents. It’s a disaster.

Bash: President Biden?

Biden: It’s ridiculous to say everyone wanted to overturn Roe v. Wade. I didn’t. My friend didn’t. The women didn’t, including that one who was murdered by an immigrant. He went to the funeral. But here’s the deal. There’s a lot of women raped by their in-laws, by their spouses, by their brothers and sisters, by their children and grandmothers, it’s ridiculous, I saw this one video where the pool boy came into the house looking all sweaty and asked for a glass of water, and you know how that goes, you’ve seen the videos, and then they can do nothing about it and they try to arrest them when they cross state lines.

Tapper: President Biden, on the issue of border security, a record number of migrants have illegally crossed the southern border on your watch. Why should voters trust you to solve this crisis?

Biden: I hired more border patrol. I hired more asylum officers. This is why there are no more illegal immigrants. He put babies in cages. I’m going to continue until we get the total initiative relative to what we’re going to do with more border patrol and more asylum officers eating a salami on Wednesday.

Trump: I have no idea what the fuck he said at the end there and I don’t think he knows what he said either. Look, we had the safest border in the history of borders, and then he just opened them right up. He opened them to prisoners and lunatics and rapists and child molesters and terrorists and wildlings and white walkers. These are not good people. We had the safest border in history according to border patrol who, by the way, endorsed me for president, I won’t say that here but they endorsed me, I won’t talk about it but it was Brandon, Brandon from border patrol endorsed me, I won’t mention his name here but it was Brandon R. Knight who lives at 246 Longmeadow Drive in El Paso with his dogs, beautiful dogs by the way, it was the safest border and now we have the worst border in history. And these migrants are staying at the best hotels, great five-star hotels, while our veterans are on the street because he hates veterans.

Biden: Okay everything he just said is a lie. For example, I don’t hate veterans, I’d give my life for a veteran. I’d give a veteran a handjob in a Denny’s bathroom. We’ve done more for veterans than anyone in American history.

Bash: Let’s talk about Russia and Ukraine. Former President Trump, Vladimir Putin says he’ll only end the war if he gets to keep some of Ukraine and Ukraine stops trying to join NATO. Are Putin’s terms acceptable to you?

Trump: Our veterans can’t stand Biden. They think he’s the worst commander-in-chief that we’ve ever had. They wouldn’t take a handjob from him in a Denny’s bathroom even if they were desperate. If we had a real president, Putin never would have invaded Ukraine. And Hamas never would have attacked Israel. When I was president, Hamas liked Israel. You know those silly little caps Jews wear on their head? When I was president, Hamas wore those caps too. Out of respect for me. President Biden is like a Palestinian, and not one of the good ones either, he’s a bad one, he’s a weak Palestinian, he’s not even one of the scary Palestinians, he can’t even yell “Allahu Akbar” correctly and the other Palestinians can’t stand him, they can’t stand this guy.

Biden: I’ve never heard so much malarkey in my life. I’m a great Palestinian.

Bash: Former President Trump, would you support the creation of an independent Palestinian state to achieve peace in the region?

Trump: I make great deals. I made great deals as a kid. As a teenager. As an adult. As an old man. I made NATO put up biyyons and biyyons of dollars. I told them, if you don’t pay, I don’t play. And you know what happened? Biyyons and biyyons of dollars came flowing in the next day. But now we’re paying everyone’s bills again.

Tapper: Mr. Trump, I want to talk about January 6th. After you rallied your supporters that day, some of them stormed the Capitol. As president, you swore an oath to preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution. What do you say to voters who believe you violated that oath on January 6th and worry that you’ll do it again?

Trump: Let me tell you about January 6th. On January 6th, we had a secure border. On January 6th, we were energy independent. On January 6th, somewhere out there, a little boy had his first hamburger because we had made America great.

Tapper: Please answer the question.

Trump: I had nothing to do with anything that happened on On January 6th. Even Nancy Pelosi said that. She said, “President Trump had nothing to do with January 6th, it was all my fault.”

Biden: He’s a convicted felon.

Trump: His son is a convicted felon.

Biden: He had sex with a porn star in the other room while his wife was giving birth. He has the morals of an alley cat.

Alley cats: wtf

Trump: I didn’t have sex with a porn star in the other room while my wife was giving birth, she had sex with me.

Biden: He said fine people on both sides.

Trump: No I didn’t.

Biden: Yes you did. He said Hitler has done good things.

Trump: Only some.

Bash: President Biden, black Americans are struggling. What do you say to black Americans who are disappointed you haven’t made more progress?

Biden: I’ve helped black Americans in all kinds of ways. It’s inflation that’s hurting them, not me.

Trump: You caused the inflation.

Biden: I know you did but what did I do?

Bash: President Trump, will you do anything to slow the climate crisis?

Trump: The blacks love me. They made me an honorary black.

Bash:

Trump: When I was president, I had stopped climate change. I had the best environmental numbers in history.

Biden: I passed the most extensive climate change legislation in history. Blacks love me. I built labs in historically black colleges so they could do science like white colleges.

Trump: Illegals are destroying our country.

Biden: And by the way.

Biden:

Tapper: Mr. Trump, the average cost of childcare in this country has risen past $11,000/year per child. In your second term, what would you do to make childcare more affordable?

Trump: He’s the worst president in this history of this country.

Biden: He’s the worst president in this history of this country.

Trump: He’s the worst president in this history of this country.

Biden: He’s the worst president in this history of this country.

Tapper: Mr. Trump, the question was about childcare.

Trump: He’s the worst president in this history of this country.

Biden: He’s the worst president in this history of this country.

Tapper: Mr. Trump, what will you do to address the opioid crisis?

Trump: China.

Tapper: Mr. Trump, what will you do to address the opioid crisis?

Trump: Illegals are killing this country.

Tapper: Mr. Trump, what will you do to address the opioid crisis?

Trump: Democrats pay too much for hostages. I pay almost nothing.

Bash: K. President Biden, frankly you’re old as cock. How do you address concerns about this?

Biden: I used to be young. America is a great country.

Bash: Former President Trump, you’re also appallingly old. How do you address the same concerns?

Trump: I just won two club championships. To do that you have to be smart and you have to be able to hit the ball a long way. He couldn’t hit a ball 50 yards. I have the body and mind of a 23-year-old.

Biden: I’m a six handicap.

Trump: My tits you are.

Biden: I’m an eight handicap.

Trump: I’ve seen your swing.

Bash: Mr. Trump, will you pledge to accept the results of this election and say political violence of any form is unacceptable?

Trump: Of course political violence is unacceptable. I hated when Nancy Pelosi ushered in all those people to the Capitol on January 6th. I’m running because he’s the worst president in the history of this country.

Bash: Mr. Trump, will you pledge to accept the results of this election?

Trump: Putin never would have attacked Ukraine if I had been president.

Bash: Mr. Trump, will you pledge to accept the results of this election?

Trump: If the election is fair and free and I win of course I’ll accept the results.

Biden: Whiner.

Trump: Complainer.

Tapper: It is blessedly now time for the candidates to deliver their closing statements. Time for the big, lofty, heartfelt speech.

Biden: I didn’t raise taxes on most people. He instituted a 10% tariff, which is the same as raising taxes. He wants to make it so we can’t negotiate with big pharma companies. We got it down to $35 for insulin, which is $20 more than I said earlier in the debate, and a $2,000 cap for senior healthcare spending, which is ten times the figure I said earlier tonight. That’s huge progress in just a couple hours.

Trump: This guy sucks. All he does is let people pour in over the border. We’re living in a hellish rat’s nest. No one likes you. No one respects you. God I’m good. No one’s ever seen anything like it before. We live in a shit country. Because of you, I need to make America great again again.

Bash: Thank you I guess.

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More places to go:

Presidential debate transcripts from 2020 and 2016

My book about how our politics got to this state

The American Presidents: Washington to Lincoln

_______

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The post The 2024 Trump-Biden Debate appeared first on Wait But Why.

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Why I Lugged My 27-Pound Toddler to a Rocket Launch

This post was originally published in The Free Press on October 14, 2024.

Last night, I received two texts from Bari Weiss: 

Any interest in writing a short piece about that jaw-dropping launch?

And why you brought your daughter to see it?

The first question is an easy one. I’ve been fascinated by space ever since I gained sentience sometime in the mid-1980s. I had the order of the planets down by age four, and a few years later I could (and did) tell people that you could fit a thousand Earths inside Jupiter and a thousand Jupiters inside the sun.

I remember being amazed watching videos of the moon landing—but also confused. The cars, telephones, TVs, and computers of my childhood were worlds more advanced than anything my parents had as kids. But with space, the normal order of things was reversed: My parents grew up exhilarated by Apollo missions to places no man had gone before, while I was watching the space shuttle take astronauts a little hop above Earth’s surface to do some technical work on the International Space Station. I remember feeling a deep envy of people who were around in the 1960s. It didn’t make sense.

The problem turned out to be this:1

People living in the 1960s thought the moon landing was just the beginning. By 2024, they’d have imagined, there would be a permanent moon base, lots of space tourism, and even people walking around on other planets.

As it turns out, the 1960s were a fluke. It was the height of the Cold War and “desperate times call for desperate measures” justified all kinds of unusual behaviors—including spending five percent of the federal budget to one-up the Soviet Union in the space race. That brief spike in space expenditure put a man on the moon, captivated all of humanity and reminded us of what’s possible when we put our minds together.

Then the Cold War moved on, shifting its tensions to other arenas. Space became less of a critical mission and more of a fun hobby. What had been five percent of the federal budget in the mid-1960s dropped to one percent by the mid-1970s and 0.5 percent in recent decades.

Any hopes I had that the U.S. would decide to become rad about space again were dashed in 2011, when the space shuttle program was shut down for good. Now we couldn’t even launch astronauts into low Earth orbit. When we wanted to send Americans into space, we had to politely ask Russia to do it for us.

I get it. We have many more pressing needs than space. A politician campaigning today on dedicating five percent of the budget to space would be laughed out of the room.

It’s just that it’s such a shame. The moon landing was a tantalizing glimpse into the incredible potential of our species—and a frustrating reminder that without desperate times, that potential remains largely untapped.

Then came SpaceX. I first heard about it in 2012 when 60 Minutes did a segment on the company. Over the next few years, I watched as SpaceX kept defying expectations, successfully launching progressively bigger and more legit rockets into orbit.

In what is still the most surprising day of my life, one day in 2015 Elon Musk reached out to me, said he had read my recent blog post on AI, and asked if I’d be interested in writing about SpaceX. Over the next few months I visited the SpaceX facilities, looked at their rockets up close, interviewed dozens of their engineers, and talked with Musk about the big vision for the company. I wrote about it all in a big blog post.

At the time, SpaceX was singularly focused on one of the space industry’s holy grails: rocket reusability.

Imagine if every commercial airplane flight ended with the passengers parachuting to the ground and the plane crashing into the ocean. With every plane flying exactly once, a brand-new plane would be needed for every flight. Tickets would cost millions of dollars, limiting air travel to billionaires and governments. 

Until recently, that was how space travel worked. Every rocket flew once, making space available only to billionaires and governments. What if, somehow, rockets could be like planes, ending each mission by landing instead of crashing the rocket? Each rocket could be used hundreds of times instead of once, dramatically cutting down the price of space travel and revolutionizing the industry.

In late 2015 a SpaceX rocket launched, sent its payload into orbit, and for the first time in human history, came back down and landed. I watched from SpaceX headquarters. The cheer was so deafening you could feel the vibration move through your body. In the face of a million doubts, SpaceX showed that a private company could not only launch rockets but do it better than any government ever had. Soon, the U.S. government was using SpaceX, not Russia, to launch its astronauts.

But reusability was just a stepping stone on the way to SpaceX’s real mission: colonizing Mars. If you have critical information stored on a hard drive, it’s common sense to back up the info on a second hard drive. That’s how Elon Musk views humanity. We currently have all our eggs in one planet. To give our species the best chance of survival in the long run, he believes, we should live on multiple planets. We’re fortunate to have another potentially livable rocky planet nearby. Why not try to use it?

Bringing people to Mars requires a rocket far larger and smarter than any we had ever built. So SpaceX built Starship, a beast the height of a 40-story skyscraper.2

To make trips to Mars affordable, the rocket has to be reusable, which means this thing has to land. So SpaceX got busy innovating, designing a system to catch the landing rocket between two giant arms. Last week, SpaceX announced that on Sunday, October 13, they would perform Starship’s fifth test launch and, for the first time, attempt to catch the gargantuan rocket on the way down.

I knew one thing: I sure as shit wasn’t going to miss this. I made arrangements to travel to Boca Chica, Texas, to watch.

So the answer to Bari’s first text was easy. I love writing about anything related to space. Yes. 

But how about the second text?

And why you brought your daughter to see it?

Let me first say that “daughter” is generous. What I have is a little two-foot-tall, 19-month-old gnome. Many times over the course of the weekend journey, I asked myself the same question. Why did I decide to bring a toddler with me?

I asked myself that question at 6:30 a.m. Sunday morning while making the 30-minute walk down the beach from the hotel to the viewing spot, which would have been much easier without lugging a fussy, under-slept, 27-pound medicine ball with me—all for something she won’t begin to understand or appreciate or remember.

We arrived at our spot and waited. Then, suddenly, the bottom of the rocket exploded into color. The launch began in silence for a few seconds while the roaring sound zipped along the water toward us. Then it got loud. My daughter hated it, saying “No?” repeatedly, which is her way of pleading with me to make it stop. 

But soon, like everyone else, she was staring wide-eyed at the flying skyscraper as it bored its way upward through the thick atmosphere, painting a beautiful strip of vivid white and orange cloud across the clear sky. Way above us, we watched it separate into two little dots: The spaceship heading around the world with plans to crash into the Indian Ocean, and the rocket that was—somehow—turning around and coming back toward us.

I can say with confidence: Watching a skyscraper falling from the sky is one of the most surreal things I have ever seen. Noticing my daughter still fixated on the cloud, I redirected her attention to the falling rocket. Near the ground, with a new streak of fire shooting out of its engines, it slowly hovered its way over to the tower and into the gentle embrace of the robot arms. The crowd roared. My wife, who gives one percent as much of a shit as I do about space, was in tears.

It’s hard to wrap your head around SpaceX’s mission. If they actually succeed in putting a single human on Mars, let alone their goal of a million people, it will be one of the major milestones in not just human history but life history—on par with the moment animals first began to walk on land. Whether or not they end up pulling it off, space is officially exciting again.

But the reason rocket launches make people emotional isn’t about that. It’s the feeling of swelling pride that comes from being in awe of your own species. It’s the feeling of hope that comes from being reminded of our insane potential when thousands of people work together toward a goal. It’s the happy version of the post-9/11 feeling of wanting to hug every stranger you see.

These emotions are especially refreshing at a time when we’re surrounded by their polar opposite: the pessimism and petty cynicism that pervade our age of suffocating tribalism.

As the father to a smiley little gnome, I desperately want to shield her from the negativity that will swirl around her as she grows up. I won’t be able to do that. But what I can do is continually redirect her attention to the rocket, showing her all the ways our species is incredible. I can use “rocket launch emotion” as a parenting compass and try, as many times as I can, to give her experiences that fill her with that particular magical, high-minded feeling.

If along the way I also train her to be my little space nerd friend, all the better.

 

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To support Wait But Why, visit our Patreon page.

_______

More Wait But Why space nerdery:

How (and Why) SpaceX Will Colonize Mars

The Fermi Paradox

4 Mind-Blowing Things About Stars


  1. Wikipedia

  2. Image: Britannica

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Tales from Toddlerhood

Back in 2023, I wrote a post about having my first baby and all the things that confused me about doing so.

Earlier this year, it happened again. Just like that, I was back here:

On one hand, now time doesn’t exist at all.

On the other hand, the second child is…easier than the first.

But I’m not here to talk about the new baby, delightful and obese as she may be. Today, I report to you from the depths of toddler parenthood. I always thought two-year-olds were basically unconscious blobs with a cold, but it turns out they’re actual people you can get to know. Having now spent some time cohabitating with one, I’ve made the following discoveries:

1) You can be simultaneously completely obsessed with and dramatically bored by the same person.

Sometimes when I’m working in my office, my daughter will toddle in, run over to me, and give me a hug. It is by far the best part of my day. Her smile fills me with utter joy. Her little voice is sent straight from heaven. I feel the purest possible love for her.

It’s just that I also find her groundbreakingly boring. A five-minute hangout is one thing, but when I’m deep in an afternoon with her, it’s hard to come to any other conclusion than that I’ve spent my last three hours with a person whose IQ is 20.

toddler: The cow says moo! parent, lying on ground: It does.

2) Toddlers are dicks.

It’s well-known that toddlers transform into mid-20th-century totalitarian dictators at the drop of a hat.

But they’re dicks in less obvious ways too. The other day, my toddler was playing with Legos. I sat down next to her and asked her what she was building, and she said, “Daddy needs to work in his office?”—an unsubtle hint that I should leave her the fuck alone.

Or the times I cook a whole thing for her with care and love and she refuses to take a bite, making me feel cluey for myself.

Most recently, I made the mistake of telling her my age, and now she says “Daddy is 43” like 30 times a day, constantly filling me with existential dread.

dad: I love you.
toddler: I love mommy.

3) No one wants to see videos of someone else’s toddler.

Toddler parenthood is a reality distortion zone that makes it hard to remember that most people find your toddler breathtakingly uninteresting.1

showing a stranger a video of your kid: Aw so cute! (thought bubble: Oh my god it's not even halfway done.)

Friends who have kids the same age as yours are kind of in a cohort together, so parents of toddlers often end up with a whole throng of toddlers in their lives. Amongst my cohort I’ve both been an offender and frequent victim of toddler-video-showing. It’s part of the tax we all pay.2

I try to at least minimize the fallout from my end.

Three circles showing who I send toddler/baby photos and videos to: tiny circle labeled Friends, slightly bigger circle labeled Family, and huge circle labeled Wife

4) Someone else’s toddler can ruin your week.

5) Toddlers are geniuses who are also very dumb.

If I took my daughter to China for a year, and we just lived there with no language instruction, I’d come back knowing approximately six Mandarin words and she’d be fluent. It makes no sense to me that toddlers just learn a language by hearing the language, but somehow they do. They’re weird freak geniuses. But then she says stuff like “would you like a strawberry?” when she wants a strawberry, because when we say “you,” it refers to her, so she now thinks “you” is a synonym for her name, which is very unimpressive.

Likewise, the other day I read her a new book for the first time, and then the second time I read it to her, she stopped me in the middle to correct something I said. It turns out I had accidentally skipped a word, which she knew because she somehow memorized the whole book on the first read. But then we’ll pick up another book and she’ll stare at the page for a million years looking for where Curious George is “hiding” even though he’s obviously right the fuck there.

6) Toddlers have a highly inaccurate worldview.

We sometimes take our toddler to story time at the library, where the librarian reads a book to a bunch of kids. The first time we took her, she decided to take matters into her own hands and, mid-story, went and sat in the librarian’s lap. The issue is that she hadn’t quite figured out that the world does not exist entirely for her benefit.

It’s understandable. You’re born into the world and for the first few years, everyone you see smiles and waves at you, so you overestimate your importance. Only slowly do you learn what’s really happening.3

This is part of the broader phenomenon of a toddler not really having any idea what’s going on. They don’t know about death, or money, or history, or sex, or the Big Bang, or basically anything about reality. They just emerged out of nowhere and started being, which for some reason doesn’t strike them as weird or confusing.

(A good “do you have any idea what’s going on?” litmus test is: If you’re walking down the street and an elephant flies down from the sky, hovers ten feet above you and says hello in a silly cartoon voice before flying off, would you be like “OH MY GOD WHAT JUST HAPPENED” or would you shrug and be like “I guess that’s something that happens”? If the latter, you have no idea what’s going on. Most two-year-olds fail this test.)

7) Toddlers are both the funniest and least funny possible people.

My daughter is remarkably unfunny. Once when she dropped something, I said “kerplunk,” and she found it fucking hilarious. For the next ten minutes, she kept picking things up, dropping them, and saying “kerplunk,” hysterically laughing each time.

But unintentionally, she’s a comedic genius. When I was in her way recently, she said, “Can you get out of space?” which my wife and I now say to each other whenever we want the other to move. Another time, we had to rip a band-aid off her leg, after which she said, “I am so perfectly sad,” and now my wife and I say that anytime we’re unhappy about something.4

We’ve also discovered an amazing hack: you can just teach a toddler to say whatever you want. We taught her to say “mamma mia” whenever she falls over, which I highly recommend to other toddler parents.

8) Toddler parents have very strong opinions and everyone is very judgy.

Two parents silently judging each other. The parent of the toddler without cotton candy thinks: Imagine giving that to your kid. The parent of the toddler with cotton candy thinks: Imagine depriving your kid of that.

The problem is, for every strong opinion, there’s an equally strong opposite opinion.

pairings of competing parenting advice, like: Toddlers thrive on routine vs Follow their natural rhythms and cues, and Supervision vs Freedom.

I’ve taken to accepting that I’m messing up all kinds of things, and mainly just try to have fun with my little friend. To the extent that I have a strategy, it’s basically:

  • Spend lots of (phone-free) time with her
  • Show her that the world is a fun and fascinating place
  • Encourage her to reason from first principles
  • Don’t interrupt her when she’s focused or daydreaming; help her learn to be entertained by her own mind
  • Refrain from imposing lots of little rules, but where there are rules, be firm about them
  • Build problem-solving confidence, teaching her to become a person who says “I want to figure out the directions” instead of a person who says “let’s just ask someone”

Toddler parents can take solace in the fact that parenting probably matters less than we think it does. Rather than try to shape our little two-foot-tall companions, we should help guide them to become the best version of who they already are.

Anyway, gotta go. Time to read Squeak the Mouse Likes His House for the 57th time.

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More tales from fatherhood: 10 Thoughts from the Fourth Trimester

My favorite toddler books: Flotsam, Little Fur Family, The Giant Jam Sandwich, Little Owl’s Night

If you’d rather read about something other than my fat babies:

The Marriage Decision: Everything Forever or Nothing Ever Again

Taming the Mammoth: Why You Should Stop Caring What Other People Think

Why I’m Always Late

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To support Wait But Why, visit our Patreon page.


  1. Toddler grandparents may be an exception, though they span a wide range, from “Please go away for a month and leave them with me” on one end, to “I will play with them for five minutes but only because it looks bad if I don’t” on the other. Those on the latter end are as bored by toddler videos as everyone else.

  2. There’s a range here. A short, high-quality video of a good friend’s toddler, sent by text (so you can watch on your own time and don’t have to react the whole time) is fine—nice even. A person you barely know showing you a long toddler video, in person, is a nightmare.

  3. Some have suggested that the common desire for fame is, in some subconscious sense, an attempt to recapture the long-lost feeling that the whole world knows and loves you.

  4. She actually said “Can I get out of space?” and “You are so perfectly sad” because, again, she is confused about pronouns.

The post Tales from Toddlerhood appeared first on Wait But Why.

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The sights and sounds of Bhutan

Ever present in my mind is The List: the countries I still haven’t gone to that I most want to visit.

Ethiopia is on The List. So is Indonesia. And South Korea. And Madagascar. And Taiwan.

Early on, my wife and I pledged to visit two new countries every year, and we mostly pulled it off. Then came Covid, followed by two babies, and we fell off the wagon.

This year we remembered that we were gonna die at some point and decided it was time to get things going again. We dusted off The List, picked a country that’s been at the very top for years, tossed the kids to the grandparents for a week, and headed off to Bhutan.1

Bhutan, if you’re not familiar, is a tiny 800,000-person country squashed between two behemoths.

Bhutan was unified in the 17th century after millennia of existing as a collection of warring tribes. In the time since then, it has somehow avoided being annexed by China or India. Today, it is the world’s last Buddhist kingdom, and I can confirm that it is both very Buddhist and very kingdom-y. Temples are everywhere, and the people are highly superstitious—our tour guide seemed to constantly be remarking about good luck and bad luck, promising omens and inauspicious riverbends. (The temples are beautiful, but so are all the other buildings. All architecture in the country, from the airport to the shopping centers, has a uniform Bhutanese style.)

The king is universally beloved and, at least the way they tell it, an exemplary ruler. A typical story we heard: 50,000 people work in the country’s tourist industry, all of whom were suddenly out of work during Covid. So the king gave these families $120/month, enough to get by on until the industry came back. He paid this out of his own pocket, nearly to the point of personal bankruptcy.

(Of course, I was also told in North Korea that it was only by the grace and courage of their magnanimous leaders that the people were prosperous and free, unlike their unfortunate South Korean cousins suffering under American occupation. But the situations are wildly different and I am inclined to mostly believe what I heard in Bhutan.)

One more story to illustrate what a sweetie Bhutan is: The country has a strict policy against killing animals and never euthanizes stray dogs, so there are a lot of them. They mostly live off the detritus of restaurants and hotels. When everything shut down during Covid, the king told people to bring cooked food out to the dogs and even wrap them in blankets during the cold months.


Bhutan does things differently than other countries. Hellbent on preserving their traditional way of life, TV and internet were banned in the country until 1999, and if it weren’t for the cars, I might have been convinced I had taken a time machine back to the 1600s. Tourism is limited, only possible in the form of a guided tour, and immigrating to the country is near impossible. They are so diligent about conservation that Bhutan is the world’s one carbon-negative country—their vast forests absorb more CO2 than their populace emits.

In 1972, Bhutan’s king decided that Gross National Happiness was a more important metric than Gross Domestic Product, and their policies cater to this value.2 It’s why Bhutan is famous for supposedly being the world’s happiest country, which I had no way to verify, but the people were very kind and seemed pretty happy I guess?

Sadly, Bhutan’s way of life is threatened now as many of its young people have left to find opportunity elsewhere. The king is attempting to fix this with plans to construct Gelephu Mindfulness City, an economic hub which will center around innovation, while preserving Bhutanese tradition. It looks like it’ll be incredible, though I was told not to hold my breath as it will probably not be finished for 20 more years.

All of this is to say that Bhutan is a special place—remote, mysterious, and breathtakingly beautiful. Which is why it was always prominently on The List.

A trip to Bhutan is better shown than told, so I kept most of the details to this video:

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More posts from The List:
Siberia
Tokyo
Nigeria
Iraq
Greenland
North Korea
And The genie question

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To support Wait But Why, visit our Patreon page. (During this book-writing phase, I’ve been doing mini-posts every Friday for patrons.)


  1. It is not quick to get from Austin to Bhutan. We had to get there by way of Chicago, Zurich, and Delhi.

  2. In 2011, the UN passed a resolution being like, “all of you other shitty countries should consider focusing on Gross National Happiness too.” Everyone appears to have ignored them.

The post The sights and sounds of Bhutan appeared first on Wait But Why.

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